China's dominance in Africa: A catalyst for transformation or a call for caution?

The global order is undergoing a seismic shift, propelled by the ascent of emerging powers such as China, India, and Brazil.

These nations, once relegated to the margins of a Western-dominated international system, are now reshaping the contours of global governance, economic frameworks, and geopolitical dynamics. Among them, China ’s influence stands out, particularly in Africa, where its economic, political, and cultural presence is redefining development and diplomacy.

Writing from the African continent, where China’s footprint is unmistakable, I explore the growing influence of these emerging powers, with a focus on China ’ s dominance, and analyze the implications for global governance and international relations.

The rise of emerging powers reflects a broader transition toward a multipolar world. China, with the world’s second-largest economy, has transformed from a regional actor into a global superpower.

Its Belt and Road Initiative, technological advancements, and expansive trade networks have positioned it as a leader in shaping global economic flows.

India, leveraging its demographic dividend and burgeoning tech sector, is carving out a strategic role in the Indo-Pacific
while advocating for a greater voice in global forums like the G20. Brazil, a powerhouse in Latin America, draws influence from its vast natural resources and leadership in environmental governance, though domestic challenges have tempered its global ambitions.

Together, these nations challenge the traditional dominance of Western powers, pushing for a more inclusive international system.

However, China’s unparalleled engagement in Africa makes it the central focus of this transformation.

In Africa, home to over 1.4 billion people and abundant natural resources, China has emerged as a dominant force.

Since the early 2000s, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation has served as a cornerstone of this relationship, channeling billions in loans, grants, and investments.

China is now Africa’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $254 billion in 2022, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. Unlike Western aid models, which often impose stringent conditionalities, China’s “no-strings-attached” financing resonates with African governments seeking rapid development.

Major infrastructure projects, such as Kenya’s Standard Gauge Railway, Ethiopia ’s Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway, and Nigeria ’s Lekki Deep Sea Port, have improved connectivity and spurred economic activity.

Yet, these projects have also sparked concerns about debt sustainability, with countries like Zambia, owing China an estimated $6 billion, facing accusations of falling into a “debt trap.” This economic engagement underscores China’s strategic vision, positioning Africa as a critical node in its global ambitions.

Beyond economics, China ’ s political and diplomatic influence in Africa is profound.

By emphasizing non-interference in domestic affairs, China aligns with African leaders’ calls for sovereignty, contrasting with Western approaches often perceived as paternalistic.

This stance has secured Beijing significant support in international forums, with African nations frequently backing China’s positions in the United Nations on issues like human rights and Taiwan. China’s soft power is also on the rise, with Confucius Institutes promoting Chinese language and culture and over 80,000 African students enrolled in Chinese universities by 2023.

These initiatives are fostering a generation of African professionals with ties to Beijing, while Chinese media outlets like CGTN Africa shape narratives in competition with Western media. On the security front, China’s establishment of a military base in Djibouti in 2017 and its growing arms exports signal a broadening strategic presence, though its security role remains secondary to its economic influence.
The implications of China ’s dominance in Africa, alongside the rise of India and Brazil, are reshaping global governance. The emergence of these powers challenges the unipolar dominance of the United States and its allies, fostering a multipolar system. Institutions like the BRICS New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank offer alternatives to the World Bank and IMF, providing developing nations with new financing options.

This shift could lead to a more equitable global financial system, though it risks creating competing blocs. Emerging powers are also pushing for reforms in global institutions, with India and Brazil advocating for permanent seats on the UN Security Council, while China leverages its veto power to protect its interests and those of its allies.

This dynamic suggests a potential for more inclusive governance but also highlights tensions between established and emerging powers.

China’s engagement in Africa exemplifies South-South cooperation, emphasizing mutual benefit over traditional donor-recipient models. This approach resonates with African nations wary of Western influence but raises questions about transparency and accountability, given China’s opaque lending practices. The growing presence of emerging powers has also intensified geopolitical rivalries, with the United States and the European Union responding through initiatives like Build Back Better World and the Global Gateway.

These efforts, however, struggle to match China’s scale and speed, risking a new “scramble for Africa” where African nations must navigate
competing interests. Environmental and social challenges further complicate this landscape, as Chinese-funded projects have faced criticism for deforestation, pollution, and prioritizing Chinese workers over local labor. Addressing these issues is critical to sustaining China’s long-term influence.

For African nations, China’s dominance presents both opportunities and challenges. Chinese investment has addressed critical infrastructure gaps, driving modernization and economic growth.

However, dependency on Chinese loans risks economic vulnerabilities, as seen in Zambia and Angola.

African governments must negotiate strategically, diversifying partnerships with India, which offers expertise in IT and healthcare, and Brazil, with its strengths in agriculture and renewable energy. By balancing these relationships, Africa can maximize development benefits while maintaining sovereignty.

The rise of emerging powers, with China’s dominance in Africa at the forefront, marks a pivotal moment in global governance.

China’s economic, political, and cultural influence is redefining Africa’s role in the world, offering a model of development that challenges Western paradigms.

As India and Brazil also expand their global footprints, the international system is moving toward greater multipolarity, where power is more diffused but potentially more contested.

For Africa, the challenge is to leverage these partnerships for sustainable development while safeguarding autonomy.

For global governance, the rise of these powers demands a rethinking of institutions and norms to accommodate new players without destabilizing the system.

Writing from Africa, I see China’s influence as both a catalyst for transformation and a call for strategic caution—a dynamic
that will shape the continent and the world for decades to come.

Writer's email: Hajianasiraafrah@gmail.com