Inconvenient Truth: When tariffs bite, Africa must build: Turning global trade wars into continental opportunity

In today’s geopolitical landscape, war no longer arrives with the noise of gunfire or the presence of soldiers.

It now appears in trade bulletins and tariff proclamations.

Economic skirmishes are reshaping global relationships, disrupting supply chains, and threatening livelihoods, especially for emerging economies seeking access to global markets.

This is not a passing storm.

The current wave of tariffs marks a prolonged and strategic shift.

The global trading system is being redrawn.

Supply chains that took decades to build are being reconfigured.

Experts forecast that this transformation may take five to seven years to stabilise if global politics remain steady.

Having dedicated decades to industrialisation initiatives, manufacturing systems, and industrial development, I appreciate and understand this complexity.

Relocating a factory is not the same as moving an office.

It necessitates stable governance, skilled labour, coordinated logistics, and supportive infrastructure. Oversimplifying this process is not just naïve; it is a strategic error.

A costly turn toward nationalism

Trade nationalism is on the rise.

The United States, long a pillar of global trade integration, has shifted its posture dramatically.

In April 2025, it imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports.

However, some nations, including key African economies, are facing elevated rates.

South Africa’s exports, for instance, are now subject to a 30% tariff, effectively dismantling the duty-free access previously granted under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

In 2024, South Africa exported over $14 billion worth of goods to the U.S., including automobiles, agriculture, textiles, and wine. The new tariffs introduce steep costs for both exporters and U.S. consumers.

Often, the consumer becomes the silent casualty. Inflation, the invisible tax, eats away at households while boardrooms debate strategy. Every tariff carries a price tag, but it is the everyday person who unknowingly foots the bill.

Automotive sector: A success story threatened

South Africa’s automotive exports to the U.S. exceeded $2 billion in 2024. Under AGOA, these shipments enjoyed duty-free treatment.

The newly introduced 25% tariff on foreign-made cars has swiftly erased this competitive edge.

South Africa’s share of U.S. auto imports remains under 1%, yet it faces punitive measures similar to global heavyweights.

Industry leaders warn that this change puts thousands of jobs at risk and jeopardises investments tied to U.S. demand.

If you punish the diligent for crimes they did not commit, don’t expect excellence to endure.

South African officials are actively engaging with U.S. counterparts in hopes of reversing or mitigating the blow. But as things stand, the sector faces an uphill battle.

Clothing and textiles: Fragile threads unravelling

Textile exports from Lesotho, Madagascar, Kenya, and others have long benefited from AGOA’s preferential framework. In 2022, African apparel exports to the U.S. totalled $1.4 billion.

These industries are job-intensive and heavily reliant on global orders.

The new tariff regime now subjects some countries to shocking increases: Lesotho faces a 60% rate, Madagascar 47%, and Botswana 37%.

Even Kenya, previously seen as a strategic partner, faces a 20% duty.

The results are immediate and unforgiving. Factories are scaling back, orders are being cancelled, and families are feeling the impact.

Ethiopia’s experience is a stark warning.

When AGOA access was revoked in 2022, apparel exports to the U.S. dropped by 42% within months, and over 11,000 jobs were lost.

When trade winds shift without warning, those without anchors are swept away.

Without meaningful dialogue and policy reconsideration, Lesotho and others may find themselves in similar peril.

Agriculture and wine: Quiet strengths, loud consequences

Agricultural exports form a crucial part of Africa’s trade with the U.S.

In 2022, South African agricultural exports to the U.S. were valued at $622 million.

Nearly 72% entered duty-free under AGOA.

Now, a 30% tariff applies across the board, affecting citrus, grapes, nuts, and processed food products.

Wine exports are among the most vulnerable.

South Africa shipped over 10 million litres of wine to the U.S. in one year, with the market ranking among its top five destinations.

A 30% duty now makes South African wine less competitive, particularly against wines from Chile and Argentina, which face just 10%.

The roots of Africa’s vineyards are deep, but tariffs have begun to poison the harvest.

This shift could reverse gains in high-value exports and discourage smaller producers who had only just begun tapping into global markets.

Ghana: Momentum interrupted

Ghana has not escaped the tariff wave. The United States has imposed a 10% tariff on Ghanaian exports, impacting critical sectors like cocoa, apparel, and agriculture.

For a country focused on value addition and industrialisation, this development creates friction at a sensitive juncture in its export strategy.

Ghana’s exporters now face higher entry costs into a vital market, just as they were moving up the value chain.

The cocoa sector, in particular, where Ghana has sought to export processed goods like butter and powder, now faces a price disadvantage.

Nigeria: The heavyweight hit quietly

Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, has been assigned a 14% tariff rate. Its exports of textiles, cocoa derivatives, and cashew products are affected.

Though oil remains largely exempt, these new duties create challenges for its non-oil export agenda.

For a nation struggling with foreign exchange pressure, even minor export disruptions carry outsized effects.

When giants stumble, the earth shakes around them.

And when the mighty lose momentum, the margins feel the tremor.

Nigeria’s trade authorities have acknowledged the tariff’s impact and are quietly exploring trade recalibration and diversification strategies.

Africa’s place in the trade order

Despite the scope of its natural and human resources, Africa remains more of a chessboard than a player in global trade.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was conceived to address this to unify the continent into one powerful bloc.

Yet, years on, progress remains patchy.

Border delays, digital gaps, visa restrictions, and fragmented infrastructure slow the dream of integration.

The same policymakers who give grand speeches on Pan-Africanism too often author policies that divide.

Leadership without boldness is like a map with no roads.

It points to destiny but leads nowhere. Africa is not short of vision. It is short of courageous execution.

Until ministers become messengers of impact rather than gatekeepers of excuses, no amount of strategy will yield transformation.

If we cannot trade easily among ourselves, we should not be surprised when the world trades easily without us.

An opening hidden in the chaos

Still, within this confusion lies opportunity.

As global manufacturers seek new supply chains, Africa can present itself as a practical alternative.

The continent has land, resources, and a young, dynamic workforce.

But it must also provide power, stability, logistics, and policy clarity.

Africa needs not more declarations but demonstrable action.

We must build industrial corridors, upgrade port efficiency, harmonise regulations, and invest in skills.

If others turn inward, Africa must turn to itself.

We do not need new slogans.

We need working systems, roads, rails, regulations, and results.

The future will not wait for Africa to finalise one more memorandum. It will pass by unless we are ready to move.

Conclusion: Seize the storm, shape the story

This global tariff escalation is more than a policy shift. It is a defining moment.

Africa can either react in fragmented silence or rise in purposeful solidarity.

The time to debate is ending. The time to build has come!

Let others build walls. Let Africa unite and build ecosystems!

Let others weaponise trade. Let Africa industrialise!.

Let others retreat into fear. Let Africa rise to purpose!

We have the resources, the people, the market, and even the blueprints.

Now, we must summon the courage to execute. Africa first, Africa forward.

The future does not wait; it favours those bold enough to build it.