Ghana’s $10 billion merchandise trade surplus in 2025 was driven largely by gold exports, exposing the economy’s vulnerability to volatile international commodity prices and underscoring the urgent need to diversify exports, the Director of the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER), Professor Robert Darko Osei, has warned.
He said although Ghana recorded significant macroeconomic improvements in 2025, the sustainability of the gains would depend on the country’s ability to expand manufacturing, increase domestic value addition and translate monetary stability into affordable credit for businesses.
Prof. Osei was speaking at the launch of the 2025 State of the Ghanaian Economy Report (SGER), where he cautioned against excessive reliance on gold to sustain the country’s external sector performance.
“The position that we have found ourselves in is being driven by a sector that we do not have significant control over,” he said, warning that favourable gold prices could not be expected to persist indefinitely.
He said Ghana must use the current period of economic stability to strengthen productive sectors and build external reserves to cushion the economy against future shocks.
Gold dependence
Prof. Osei said the trade surplus recorded in 2025 was largely attributable to gold exports, while the recovery in cocoa exports contributed relatively little to the improvement.
He said the proportion of manufactured goods in total exports fell to below six per cent in 2025, compared with 2024, highlighting the limited contribution of manufactured products to the country’s export earnings.
He called for deliberate measures to improve the volume and competitiveness of manufactured exports, stressing that greater domestic processing of natural resources was essential to economic diversification.
He also urged the country to build adequate external reserves, warning that the favourable conditions supporting gold earnings were not guaranteed to last.
Credit remains costly
Despite improvements in macroeconomic stability, Prof. Osei said the high cost of borrowing remained a major constraint on private-sector growth and investment.
He said inflation declined from more than 23 per cent in 2024 to 5.4 per cent in 2025 while the cedi recorded significant appreciation during the year.
Average bank lending rates also fell from more than 30 per cent in 2024 to about 20 per cent in 2025, reflecting improved monetary conditions.
However, he said borrowing costs remained too high to support the competitiveness and expansion of businesses adequately.
“If credit is a binding constraint for private businesses in Ghana, clearly we cannot be competitive,” he said.
He stressed that the next challenge was to translate monetary stability into financing for productive investments, particularly in the private sector.
Bad loans persist
Prof. Osei also identified non-performing loans as a continuing concern for the banking sector, despite improvements in 2025.
He explained that high default risks compelled banks to factor potential losses into lending rates, making further reductions in borrowing costs difficult.
Using an illustration of a 20 per cent non-performing loan rate, he said a bank lending GH¢100 could face the prospect of failing to recover about GH¢20.
He called for sustained efforts to address the structural factors contributing to loan defaults and strengthen banks’ ability to finance productive activities.
Fiscal discipline
On fiscal policy, the ISSER director called for stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, continued fiscal discipline and protection of public investment.
He urged the government to institutionalise measures that had helped restore fiscal stability to ensure that the gains were sustained.
Prof. Osei said Ghana needed to preserve its macroeconomic improvements while strengthening domestic production, expanding manufactured exports and improving access to credit to make the recovery more resilient and inclusive.
Mineral wealth
The Head of the Economics Division at ISSER, Prof. Fred Dzanku, said higher mining revenues had not consistently translated into increased public investment or improved social services.
He called for improved mineral valuation, production monitoring, tax compliance and revenue administration, alongside greater transparency and accountability in the use of mineral revenues.
Prof. Dzanku said Ghana’s economic recovery had continued into 2026, but the gains were uneven.
Although first-half growth was reported at about 6.1 per cent, he said expansion was concentrated in fewer sectors than in the previous year.
He also warned that the trade surplus remained heavily dependent on gold receipts, with other exports showing signs of deterioration, reinforcing the need to diversify the economy.
Jobs and investment
The Deputy Managing Director in charge of Business and Operations at the National Investment Bank (NIB), Belinda Boamah, urged the government to consolidate its macroeconomic gains and translate them into productive investment, competitive enterprises and decent jobs, particularly for young people.
In her closing remarks as the chairperson of the event, she said the country must ensure that mineral wealth generates lasting development through transparent revenue management, timely transfers to mining communities, savings during favourable periods and decisive action against illegal mining.
She also called on financial institutions to channel economic stability into affordable, long-term financing for businesses in agriculture, manufacturing and value addition.
Ms Boamah urged policymakers, development partners, the private sector, academia, civil society and the media to use the SGER as an evidence-based tool for decision-making and accountability, adding that the NIB would continue to use such research to guide its lending decisions.
