Africa’s Youth — Anti-Democratic?

Recent conversations about democratic backsliding in Africa and the softening of attitudes towards military regimes tend to single out the youth.

The emerging narrative is that the youth appear to be more accepting of military rule, particularly because they may not have experienced what these non-democratic regimes looked and felt like during the immediate post-independence years.

Can you blame those who hold this belief about Africa’s youth? Not really. In Afrobarometer Round 1 (1999-2001, 12 countries), among Africa’s youth (18-35 years), only 11 per cent expressed approval for military rule.

In the completed Round 9 surveys (2021-2023, 39 countries), 28 per cent expressed approval for military rule, which is a significant increase over time.

What adds to the concern about the youth is, also in this round, 55 per cent expressed support for military intervention if elected leaders abuse power.

Such sentiments, as expressed by Africa’s youth, consequently raise the question of whether they are anti-democratic in their political temperaments. But are they?

Before proceeding, it is important to note that the sentiments expressed by the youth are not radically different from those expressed by the rest of the population (36 years and above).

Among the rest of the population, in Round 1, 11 per cent approved of military rule, significantly rising to 26 per cent in Round 9. On the question of military intervention, 49 per cent of this age group expressed support for military intervention if elected leaders abuse power.

Political temperaments of Africa’s youth

Let us examine, using data from Afrobarometer Round 9, a few normative values that one will typically associate with a democratic form of government and explore where Africa’s youth stand on them.

First, how do Africa’s youth feel about elections? 75r per cent want leaders chosen through “regular, open and honest elections.”

This support for elections was expressed in the same survey where only 17 per cent rated the most recent election as “completely free and fair” and 16 per cent said they trusted the election management body “a lot.”

Second, and related to the above, 51 per cent support the idea that turnover elections are good for democracies.

Elections have become the main accountability tool for citizens, given the low levels of civic engagement in non-election years.

Without turnover elections, it becomes difficult to imagine how citizens not only hold leaders accountable.

But more importantly, change course when countries find themselves in difficult times. 

Third, Africa’s youth support a restrained executive, even as we tend to perceive this branch of government as the strongest and more dominant when compared to the legislature and judiciary.

On legislative oversight of the executive, 66 per cent say “Parliament should ensure that the president explains to it regularly how the government spends taxpayers’ money.”

On judicial oversight of the executive, 74 per cent say “the president must always obey the laws and the courts, even if [he] thinks they are wrong.”

Fourth, 67 per cent of Africa’s youth want more political parties so that citizens “have real choices in who governs them.”

Again, this is at a time when the percentage who say they trust political parties “a lot” is extremely low – 16 per cent (ruling parties) and 10 per cent (opposition political parties). 

Africa’s youth hold positive dispositions about democratic norms.

Their responses to the two questions about military regimes betray how they feel about democracy as a form of government.

However, the youth, in my opinion, are not anti-democratic.

What then is the issue? Why will a demographic group, that embraces important democratic norms, express support for military intervention? Or experience a double-digit growth (+17perccentage points) in their approval of military regimes?  

Extremely dissatisfied, but not anti-democratic

Here is the issue with Africa’s youth – they are currently experiencing a huge democracy deficit where they support democracy more than they express satisfaction with it.

In Afrobarometer Round 1 (1999-2001, 12 countries), 72 per cent expressed preference for democracy, with 64 per cent saying they were “fairly satisfied/very satisfied” with the way democracy was working – creating a democracy deficit (support higher than satisfaction) of just eight percentage points.

In the completed Round 9 surveys (2021-2023, 39 countries), 66 per cent expressed a preference for democracy, with only 38 per cent saying they were “fairly satisfied/very satisfied” with the way democracy was working- creating a democracy deficit of 28 percentage points.

Support for democracy has dropped among the youth (-6) but satisfaction with how democracy is working has dropped even more significantly (-26).

The gap between how much the youth want democracy and how satisfied they are with it has tripled.

That is not a very comforting signal.

The task ahead

What is driving the youth’s growing dissatisfaction with democracy?

And how can their positive dispositions on various democratic norms be leveraged to forestall any potential erosion in their support for democracy?

That is the task that lies ahead for all those worried about whether Africa’s youth are increasingly becoming anti-democratic and are willing to embrace authoritarian alternatives to democracy.

The writer is the Project Director, Democracy Project.