South sudan’s latest peace agreement
Last month, both sides in the 20-month civil conflict in South Sudan concluded and signed another peace agreement at different times and different locations.
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On August 17, 2016, Riek Machar, leader of the rebel group, endorsed the peace pact at a ceremony in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
President Salva Kiir of South Sudan had been expected to sign at the same venue but he asked for two weeks to consult regional leaders in his country before endorsing the agreement.
President Kiir had complained about certain parts of the pact and how it was negotiated and concluded.
He had reservations about having to consult his opponent in the conflict, Riek Machar, a former Vice-President of South Sudan on key issues such as presidential powers, functions and responsibilities – as required by the peace agreement.
President Kiir was also not happy about the proposed demilitarisation of Juba, the South Sudanese capital, and integration of armed forces within 18 months from the date of the ceasefire.
However, on August 26, 2015, President Kirr signed the agreement in Juba. The ceremony was witnessed by leaders of three neighbouring African countries – President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, Prime Minister Hallemarian Desalegn of Ethiopia and President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya.
Before signing, President Kiir had said at the ceremony, “With all those reservations that we have, we will sign this document.”
Even after signing, he told the African leaders present that he still had “serious reservations”.
Concerned leaders of western countries such as the United States and United Kingdom had put pressure on both parties and threatened them with more sanctions -- if they failed to sign the peace pact.
“The humanitarian catastrophe in South Sudan is huge. We need the guns to fall silent,” the British Minister for the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, Tobias Ellwood, had said.
John Kirby, US State Department spokesperson, had warned that if the pact was not signed on the expected date, “we are going to work with our regional and international partners on the next steps and on ways to increase pressure, especially against those that are undermining the peace process or opposing this agreement”.
“To end the fighting, we call on all parties to adhere to the permanent ceasefire within the next 72 hours and begin the process of implementing this agreement,” he had said.
After the agreement was signed by President Kiir in Juba, American National Security Adviser, Susan Rice, said her country welcomed the peace pact as a “first step” leading to an end of the conflict.
“However, we do not recognise any reservations or addendums to that agreement. We will work with our international partners to side-line those who stand in the way of peace, drawing upon the full range of our multilateral and bilateral tools,” he said.
A spokesperson for the United Nations Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, has said that the UN boss was happy about the conclusion and signing of the South Sudan peace agreement and wanted it to be fully implemented.
“Now is the time to ensure that this agreement translates into an end to the violence, hardship and horrific human rights violations witnessed throughout this conflict,” the spokesman said.
Concluded after many months of negotiations and coordination by leaders of neighbouring African countries, the peace agreement spells out an arrangement that could lead to permanent peace in South Sudan.
The plan sets aside a 30-month period of what looks like a national union government in which President Kiir will continue to be President and Riek Machar will return to the South Sudan government as Vice-President.
Two months after expiration of the 30-month period, presidential and general elections will take place.
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President Kiir and his former Vice-President, Riek Machar, are expected to participate in the elections.
Commenting on the agreement, Riek Machar said he was satisfied with it and that he did not have reservations.
“We do not have any reservation on the ceasefire. We have no reason to continue fighting… There is no reason why he (President Kiir) requested for more time. He has a good agreement,” he said.
President Kiir, however, told African leaders at the signing ceremony that a poor agreement could backfire on the region.
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The South Sudan conflict broke out in December 2013, after a power struggle that ended up in President Kiir dismissing his Vice-President, Riek Machar, and the entire cabinet in July, 2013.
He had accused his vice of being involved in an attempted military takeover.
More than 10,000 persons have died in the conflict and 2.2 million forced to leave their homes.
South Sudan was part of Sudan until 2011 when in a UN-supervised general elections, the people of that part of Sudan decided by 99 per cent of the votes to break away.
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The newest nation of the world has a population of 11 million of which the Dinka tribe is in the majority and the Nuer tribe, the second largest. President Kiir belongs to the Dinka tribe. His former Vice-President, Riek Machar, is a Nuer.
Power struggle on tribal lines underscored disunity within the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) of which the late John Garang was the leader. Riek Machar resigned as Vice-Chairman of the SPLM, broke away and formed the SPLM-Nasir.
He returned to the SPLM in 2002 and was appointed Vice-President when South Sudan became independent.
It is obvious that the death of John Garang in an air crash before South Sudan became independent has created a big gap that South Sudan is yet to fill.
Is the latest peace agreement, the eighth in succession, going to bring permanent peace to South Sudan?
Seven previous peace agreements had been broken a number of times. It is, therefore, not likely that the latest agreement will bring permanent peace to the four-year old African country.
What is different from the previous pacts is the power-sharing arrangement with the 30- month of national union governance that will lead to elections thereafter.
The firm decision by the UN and the international community to impose tougher sanctions against any party that violates the latest peace agreement could make it survive the 30-month time frame before the general elections.