Road to Jubilee House: Who wins Greater Accra?

The Greater Accra Region has been a swing region in the last eight elections, making it a must-watch in the December 7 general election.

The national capital, Accra, is considered a key battleground because, statistically, none of the parties has successfully dominated election outcomes in the region.Until 2020, any party that won in the region emerged as the winner of the national elections.

The New Patriotic Party (NPP) won three out of the eight elections in this region - 2000, 2004 and 2016, and eventually emerged winner of the national elections on each occasion.

Similarly, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) won Greater Accra five times in 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012, and 2020, giving credence to the fact that majority votes in the region determined the winner of the national polls.

However, when the NDC’s John Mahama won the region in 2020, it was not enough to propel him to the Jubilee House - marking a sharp departure from the norm.

In the 2020 elections, John Mahama of the NDC flipped the region to green with about 1.33 million votes, representing 51.04 per cent to beat the incumbent President Nana Akufo-Addo of the NPP, who polled over 1.25 million or 48.10 per cent.

Although small in geographical coverage, the region has the highest voter population of 3,765,303 million, out of the 18 million across the country.

It hosts the national capital with a cosmopolitan demography, giving it its character as a swing region and an ultimate decider for the Jubilee House.

Out of the 34 constituencies in the region, the NPP currently holds 14 seats, while the NDC controls 20 seats to give the Umbrella a clear parliamentary majority.

In summary, about 58 per cent of constituencies in Greater Accra are either the NPP or the NDC strongholds.

The remaining 42 per cent are swing constituencies. In all, winning the elections comes down to very small margins for NPP or NDC in the region.

Battleground constituencies

There are yet nine constituencies that are considered swing and key battlegrounds but which slightly tilt towards the NDC by a small margin. This is mainly due to the fact that those seats have alternated between the two major parties.

The constituencies are Adentan, Dadekotopon, Ledzokuku, Madina, Odododiodoo, Klottey Korle, Bortianor-Ngleshie Amanfro, Okaikwei North and Tema East.

Green seats

There are about nine constituencies in the region that traditionally vote NDC and are considered safe Umbrella seats. They are Ada, Ashaiman, Ningo Prampram, Sege, Kpone-Katamanso, Shai-Osudoku, Ayawaso East, Ayawaso North and Ablekuma South.

Blue hold

The NPP, on the other hand, has consistently maintained a hold on some 10 constituencies. They are Anyaa-Sowutuom, Dome-Kwabenya, Okaikwei South, Tema West, Tema Central, Ablekuma North, Ablekuma West, Ayawaso Central, Weija-Gbawe and Trobu.

Ethnic-based voting

That said, Greater Accra plays the role of a great equaliser in the country’s electoral politics. The region leads the country in urbanisation and is classified by many as a pure swing region with no advantages for either party.

This is because, the Ashanti and Volta regions have been cited as areas where ethnic-based voting appears dominant.

This is evidenced by the massive support that accrues to the NPP and the NDC respectively in the two regions. However, ethnicity does not seem to determine voter behaviour in cosmopolitan areas such as Greater Accra, where voting patterns remain erratic and unpredictable.

2020 Casualties

In the 2020 elections, all the NPP MPs along the coastal belt lost bids to retain their seat for the party. Dadekotopon’s Joseph Gerald Tetteh Nyanyofio; Ledzokuku’s Bernard Okoe-Boye, who was a Deputy Health Minister, and Elizebeth Afoley Quaye, the then Minister of Fisheries and Aquaculture, all bowed out.

One of the three constituencies in the Tema Community, Tema East – which was held by the then Deputy Transport Minister, Daniel Nii K.T. Glover, also fell; just as the twin constituencies of

Madina and Adentan held by Abubakar Saddique Boniface and Yaw Buaben Asamoa left the NPP fold. Fuseini Issah also lost the Okaikwei North seat to Theresa Lardi Awuni of the NDC.

One-term constituencies

The Adentan Constituency, which was carved out of Madina-Abokobi in 2004, has rotated between the NDC and the NPP. The seat is currently held by Mohammed Adamu Ramadan of the NDC, who polled 63,436 or 55.89 per cent in 2020, to beat the incumbent Yaw Buabeng Asamoa of the NPP, who garnered 49,255, representing 43.40 per cent.

Nicknamed “the one-term constituency" as no MP has ever retained the seat, the constituency is a must-watch, especially as the NDC has won it three times in 2008 with 54.3 per cent, 2012 with 52.6 per cent and 2020, while the NPP has won it two times -- 2004 with 49.1 per cent and 2016 with 50.6 per cent.

As the polls draw closer, the race is heating up, with the incumbent Mohammed Adamu Ramadan facing a fierce contest from the Deputy CEO of the National Youth Authority (NYA), Akosua Manu.

Ledzokuku is one of the constituencies noted for changing MPs almost every four years. It is a swing constituency, which is currently held by NDC’s Benjamin Ayiku Nartey, who polled 55,938 or 50.48 per cent to beat the incumbent Bernard Okoe Boye of the NPP, who trailed with 54,072, representing 48.79 per cent.

In the last eight elections, the NDC has held the constituency five times in 1992 and 1996 with Nii Adjei-Boye Sekan, Nii Nortey Duah in 2008 and Sena Okiti Duah in 2012 and the incumbent Benjamin Ayiku Nartey.

The NPP, on the other hand, won the constituency in 2000 with Edith Akita and Dr Gladys Nortey Ashittey in 2004 and in 2016 with Dr Bernard Oko Boye.

The close margin of victory of 1,866 between the incumbent NDC candidate and the NPP makes the constituency dicey in the 2024 elections.

NDC-NPP battle

The two main parties are sparing no effort to either flip more seats into green for the NDC or blue for the NPP.

The Deputy General Secretary of the NDC, Mustapha Gbande, said his party was ready to consolidate its grip on the national capital by annexing more seats from the NPP.

“Our MPs are not threatened at all because we have serialised our campaigns with community engagements and selling our programmes to different stakeholders in order to win their support, while the NPP has resorted to offbeat entertainment”, he said in an interview.

“We will campaign on the economic hardships which have become so burdensome for people to examine their living standards to vote for the NDC,” he added.

But the Director of Elections of the NPP, Evans Nimako, was upbeat that the NPP would win the presidential election and also secure an overwhelming majority of seats in Parliament.He said the 3.7 million votes in Accra were part of the 18 million votes across the country the party was campaigning to win.

“We will go after every vote in Accra and across the country to cross the constitutional threshold that will enable us to form a government,” he said in a separate interview.

“The details of our strategy to win Accra is on our chest and we will not disclose that strategy.

“Don’t forget our candidate has toured all the 276 constituencies in the country and we are confident of victory on December 7,” he added.

Trend analysis of swing constituencies

The NDC has dominated the Odododiodoo Constituency since 1996, with the NPP flipping it in 2000 by Reginald Nii Bi Ayibonte, who polled 51.4 per cent to beat Nii Okaidja Adamafio of the NDC, who got 24,181 or 43.9 per cent.

The Odododiodoo seat is currently held by NDC’s Edwin Nii Lante Vanderpuye, who polled 41,446 or 53.83 per cent to beat his main challenger, Edward Patrick Nii Lante Bannerman of the NPP, who got 34,887 or 45.31 per cent in the 2020 elections.

The Klottey Korle Constituency is the cradle of the country’s anti-colonial struggles due to the location of the former seat of the colonial government, the Christiansborg or Osu Castle.

Located in the heart of Accra, the constituency has been loyal to the Umbrella since the inception of multiparty democracy in 1992 and is currently held by the NDC’s Zanetor Agyeman-Rawlings, who polled 39,343 votes or 55.66 per cent to beat her main challenger, Prince Appiah Debrah of the NPP, who garnered 31,154 votes or 44.07 per cent in the 2020 elections.

The NDC has so far won the constituency six times --- in 2016 and 2020 with Zanetor Agyeman-Rawlings; 2008 and 2012 with Nii Armah Ashittey of the NDC; David Lamptey held the seat for the NDC in 1996, while E.W Nortey won it for the same party in 1992.

The NPP, on the other hand, has won the constituency two times with the same person, Nii Adu Daku Mante, in 2000 and 2004.

The Dadekotopon Constituency is one of the capital city’s most affluent constituencies, covering areas including Cantonments, Labone, La, parts of Osu, and Burma Camp. It is held by NDC’s Rita Naa Odoley Sowah, who polled 47,606 or 53.1 per cent to beat NPP’s Joseph Gerald Tetteh Nyanyofio, who garnered 41,101 votes, representing 45.9 per cent in the 2020 elections.

The NDC has won the constituency five times since 1992. The seat was held by the NDC’s Lemuel Nii-Amon Kotei in 1992 when the NPP boycotted the parliamentary elections; Sylvester Mensah of the NDC in 1996; Nii Amasah Namoale in 2004, 2008 and 2012, while the NPP won it two times in 2000 with Godfred Oko-Nai and Vincent Sowah Odotei in 2016.

Bortianor-Ngleshie Amanfro was created in 2012 and although relatively young, it has become a swing constituency. It has since 2012 voted for both NPP and NDC MPs.

The constituency is currently held by Sylvester Tetteh of the NPP, who polled 42,806 or 53.30 per cent to beat NDC’s Alexander Ackuaku, who trailed with 37,502 or 46.70 per cent in the 2020 elections.

The NDC won the seat in 2012 with Bright E.K. Demordzi and NPP flipped it in 2016 with Habib Saad and was retained in 2020 by the current Deputy Minister of Information, Sylvester Tetteh.

The Tema East Constituency was a comfortable bed for the NPP in previous elections but is currently held by NDC’s Isaac Ashai Odamtten, who polled 41,663 or 55.88 per cent to beat NPP’s Daniel Nii Kwartei Titus-Glover, who trailed with 32,320 or 43.35 per cent.

The only time the NDC won Tema East was in 2004 and 2020, discounting 1992. The NPP has maintained dominance of the constituency since 1996, winning it six times.

Writer’s email: suleiman.mustapha@graphic.com.gh