AI and the future of public funding in Ghana: From politics to performance

Introduction – Reimagining Ghana’s budgeting future

In every functioning democracy, public funding is the ultimate expression of national priorities. It answers the question: Who gets what, when, and why? In Ghana, public funding has shaped everything from the pace of infrastructure development to the availability of medicine in rural clinics. It has made or broken entire industries, and in some cases, communities.

But for too long, Ghana’s public finance system has been trapped in a cycle of political favoritism, uneven allocations, and weak oversight. As the country aspires to achieve upper-middle-income status and deliver on ambitious goals in education, health, energy, and digital transformation, the inefficiencies of the old system threaten to hold it back.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) now offers a once-in-a-generation chance to overhaul how public resources are planned, distributed, and measured. By embedding data and predictive logic into funding decisions, AI can usher in a future where Ghana no longer relies on instinct and influence, but on impact and evidence.

The Problem – When politics overrides performance

Despite efforts at reform, public funding in Ghana remains highly politicized. A 2021 Afrobarometer survey showed that 72% of Ghanaians believe government contracts are awarded based on political connections rather than merit. Funding for infrastructure often tilts toward swing regions ahead of elections, while programs like the District Assemblies Common Fund are plagued by delays and opaque disbursements.

Furthermore, Ghana lacks the real-time data needed for effective budgeting. Over 60% of Metropolitan, Municipal, and District Assemblies (MMDAs) still rely on manual spreadsheets for financial tracking, according to the Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana). This makes it nearly impossible to assess in-year spending performance, correct course in real time, or hold local officials accountable.

The result is widespread inefficiency. The 2020 Auditor-General’s report cited GHS 3.26 billion in irregular expenditures, including unapproved payments, non-existent contractors, and inflated procurement. These losses are not just numbers—they represent delayed classrooms, broken health posts, and underfunded youth programs.

The Opportunity – What AI brings to the table

AI can completely reshape how Ghana manages public funding. It can introduce a level of consistency, speed, and fairness that humans—bound by limitations and biases—struggle to match.

For example, AI can quickly score thousands of grant proposals based on pre-set indicators: expected job creation, geographic need, historical success of similar projects, and more. Instead of months of paperwork and lobbying, a data-backed recommendation can be produced in hours.

Moreover, AI can forecast the long-term return on investment (ROI) of different funding options. Should GHS 100 million go to a new highway or toward SME capital grants? AI can simulate scenarios, helping decision-makers allocate resources more wisely.

Globally, the use of AI in public finance is accelerating. Estonia’s e-government system uses AI to match citizens with public services and streamline benefit delivery, cutting processing times by over 85%. In Indonesia, AI is being tested to identify underperforming government programs based on real-time field data.

Ghana, with its growing digital ecosystem and mobile-savvy population, is well-positioned to join this frontier—if it acts now.

How AI could work in practice – A new funding architecture

Let’s envision a real-world scenario.

A community health center project in Upper West is submitted for funding. Traditionally, its success might depend on whether the MP lobbies for it, or if the district is considered politically important. But in an AI-driven system, the process changes.

The proposal is run through a model that compares it with thousands of past projects. It assesses need based on public health data, population density, and distance to the nearest hospital. It evaluates the budget against cost benchmarks from similar builds. It forecasts how many lives would be improved over the next five years.

The model gives the project a high priority score. The proposal is approved—without lobbying, favoritism, or delay.

Once construction begins, AI tools monitor spending patterns, satellite images of site progress, and citizen feedback from mobile platforms. If delays or budget deviations are detected, alerts are sent in real time, prompting intervention before costs spiral.

Such a system can dramatically improve accountability, cut waste, and increase citizen confidence in public programs.

The AI tools at Ghana’s disposal

To build this future, Ghana must deploy a suite of interconnected AI tools:

1. Predictive Modeling

Using historical data, AI can forecast which sectors or projects will yield the greatest social or economic returns. For example, redirecting GHS 50 million from overhead-heavy construction to digital agriculture might produce 3x more rural jobs in certain regions.

2. Smart Proposal Scoring

Algorithms can be trained to evaluate grant and fund applications based on measurable criteria like inclusion, feasibility, and regional equity.

3. AI-Powered Monitoring Dashboards

Live dashboards can combine data from GPS, contractor reports, and expenditure records to monitor project execution in real time.

4. Anomaly Detection & Fraud Prevention

Machine learning models can identify patterns associated with corruption—such as duplicate supplier names, sudden payment spikes, or cost variations between districts for identical goods.

The potential isn’t just technical—it’s transformational.

From waste to wisdom – Turning oversight into insight

Consider that Ghana loses an estimated GHS 1.9 billion annually to procurement inefficiencies alone (IMANI Ghana, 2021). Many of these losses go undetected until after the damage is done.

AI flips the timeline. By flagging risks before funds are misused, it enables preventative action. For example, if a road contract in the Volta Region is priced 25% above comparable contracts, the system can prompt a manual audit before payment is made.

Such systems also generate institutional memory. Today, lessons from failed or delayed public projects often die in filing cabinets. AI captures these outcomes, constantly refining its future decision-making to avoid similar errors.

With AI, every funding decision becomes smarter over time.

Avoiding new pitfalls – AI must be ethical and inclusive

Despite its promise, AI is not neutral. If trained on flawed data, it can reinforce existing inequalities. If not transparent, it can create a “black box” where decisions are made without human accountability.

Ghana must ensure that:

- AI training data is inclusive—reflecting all regions, genders, and economic backgrounds
- Algorithms are regularly audited for fairness and bias
- Citizens have a clear path to challenge or appeal funding decisions made by AI systems
- Human judgment remains central, especially where community impact is high
- To build public trust, Ghana should also publish simplified, explainable versions of its AI models and decisions—ensuring that technology does not become a new gatekeeper of privilege.

The Window of Opportunity – Ghana’s Readiness Moment

Ghana already has the foundations in place. The Ghana Open Data Initiative, Digital Ghana Agenda, and increasing digitization at the Ministry of Finance show strong momentum. Mobile penetration exceeds 130%, and institutions like GRA and SSNIT have already digitized key services.

Moreover, public appetite for reform is high. In the wake of multiple procurement scandals and stalled flagship programs, Ghanaians want a public funding system that is not only fast—but fair.

Other countries are moving swiftly. Rwanda has launched an AI Strategy for Governance. Morocco is investing in AI for infrastructure planning. Ghana has the talent—what remains is leadership and execution.

A New Social Contract – What AI Makes Possible

Imagine a future where:

- A young woman in Tamale starts a poultry business with a government microgrant she secured through a transparent, AI-evaluated process.
- A community in Bawku monitors their borehole project progress online in real time.
- An education grant in Cape Coast is flagged for underperformance and redirected to a better initiative—automatically.
- This is not a dream. It is a plausible future—if Ghana embraces AI not as a luxury, but as a necessity.

The old model—manual, politicized, and opaque—is no longer fit for purpose. The new model—data-informed, inclusive, and efficient—can unlock Ghana’s full potential.

Conclusion – From politics to performance

The path to transformation is clear.

Artificial Intelligence is not just a new tool—it is a new mindset. It challenges us to rethink how we define value, how we measure success, and how we serve citizens. Ghana stands at a unique crossroads. With political will, cross-sector partnerships, and responsible implementation, AI can finally shift public funding from the hands of the powerful to the service of the people.

Let us not waste the opportunity. Let us build a funding system where performance—not politics—determines who gets a chance, who gets support, and who gets to shape the future of Ghana.