Fallout of Election 2024: Do ballot positions matter in electoral victories?

Ghana has just conducted its ninth and yet another peaceful and successful general election in its fourth Republic. Once again, political power has switched from an incumbent government to an opposition party.

This election is significant for two reasons. It is the first time a former President has returned to win an election. Also, the outcome of this election presents the nation with an opportunity to have its first female Vice President.

One other striking observation worth making is the gap in parliamentary seats and the percentage margin between the NDC’s John Mahama and NPP’s Dr Mahamadu Bawumia which stands out in recent times at least since the 2004 election.

In all these, one discussion that has been on and off in every election year is the issue of ballot position.

Some are strongly of the view that a clear top or down position on the ballot enhances a candidate’s chance of victory, especially in our part of the world where a greater percentage of the population is illiterate.

Indeed in the 2000 Presidential election in Ghana, candidate John Agyekum Kufuor was last on the ballot to wit ‘ASEƐHƆ’ while Professor Mills of the NDC was second.

NPP won the election with 3,631,263 votes representing 56.90% in the run-off after no candidate obtained over 50 per cent in the first round. 

In the 2004 general election, the NPP candidate Kufuor was second on the ballot while the NDC's candidate Mills was third on the ballot but the NPP garnered a 52.45% victory against NDC’s 44.64%.

In the 2016 general election, Nana Akufo-Addo of the NPP was fifth on the ballot while John Dramani Mahama of the NDC was third but the NPP won that election with over a million votes difference between them.

In the 2020 election, the NPP was number one on the ballot while the NDC was number two on the ballot but in that election, the NPP won.

In the Just ended 2024 general election, there were thirteen (13) presidential candidates. The NPP’s Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia was number one on the ballot while the NDC’s John Dramani Mahama was eighth.

Many were the predictions and disaffections relative to the seeming difficulty for people to count to locate Number eight but in the end, the NDC’s number eight won them a massive victory with over 1.6 million difference between them and their main contender.

The question now is, Do numbers on ballot papers necessarily win the elections or citizen disaffection does?

It is clear, especially upon a comparison of the 2016 and 2024 election results that there was a huge citizen disaffection with the incumbent government’s policies and performance and thus did not take ballot number difficulty to decide.

It is thus becoming increasingly clear from the result of the 2024 election that the Ghanaian citizen is not necessarily enthused or hindered in any way by the ballot position of a candidate.

Once they know the party symbol and are angry enough, they will vote against the one on the receiving side of their anger and for the one who merits their favour and selection.

However, it is only time that will tell as to whether this age-old numerological belief relative to ballot positions of presidential candidates especially, will not die off.