Why Africa matters in the Russia-Ukraine War

Since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, both nations have intensified their efforts to gain support from African countries.

Russia already enjoys strong diplomatic ties with many African nations due to its historical support during their colonial struggles. However, Ukraine, as the new player, is trying to establish its presence on the continent and counter Russia's influence.

While Ukraine struggles to defend its territory at home, it has focused on gaining political support in Africa, particularly in West Africa. Unlike the battlefield in Ukraine, the competition in Africa is one of diplomatic dominance. Ukraine has recently opened several new embassies in Africa, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Rwanda, Botswana and Mozambique, with more planned.

Despite losing territory to Russia, Ukraine’s mission to expand its influence in Africa is ongoing. Special Envoy Maksym Subkh has been leading diplomatic tours, opening embassies and engaging with African leaders.

Since February 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has held a number of meetings with African leaders and pan-African organisations to bolster relations.

Food diplomacy

Ukraine is also leveraging food diplomacy to gain favour. It has provided about 250,000 tonnes of grain to Sudan, which is struggling with civil war. Under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Ukraine shipped nearly 33 million tonnes of grain to over 40 countries between mid-2022 and mid-2023, with a chunk of this going to the developing nations, including those in Africa.

However, Russia remains a dominant force in Africa, with 40 embassies across the continent. Its influence is rooted in historical ties with liberation movements and anti-Western rhetoric, which resonates well with many African regimes. Russia’s longstanding presence and support make Ukraine’s challenge more difficult.

Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts have not been without setbacks. One major controversy involved accusations that Ukraine’s diplomatic missions were recruiting African citizens for military service, particularly in Senegal and Ivory Coast. This sparked outrage and damaged Ukraine’s image in the region. 

Strategy

Ukraine’s strategy, largely driven by its Western allies, was to shift Africa’s neutral stance towards supporting Ukraine. This attempt failed, with the opening of new embassies worsening relations rather than improving them.

Additionally, a scandal involving Ukraine’s ambassador to Senegal, Yuri Pivovarov, further escalated tensions after he publicly supported terrorist groups in Mali, leading to calls for his expulsion.

For instance, Mali's transitional military government on August 5, 2024, announced that it was severing diplomatic ties with Ukraine.

The move, which Ukraine has branded as hasty and "regrettable," follows heavy fighting against Tuareg separatists in the Sahel nation, which resulted in significant casualties among government soldiers and Russian forces, assisting the Malians in fighting insurgence in the area.

Similarly, the Senegalese Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine's ambassador to the country, Yuri Pivovarov, over his expressed support for militants in northern Mali who inflicted heavy losses on government forces.

Some experts believe that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, who on September 4, 2024, submitted his resignation, is in relation to the setbacks in the country’s efforts to penetrate the African continent.

Experts attribute Kuleba's resignation largely to Ukraine's mishandling of African policy, which was aimed at garnering support in its conflict with Russia.

Battle for support

In the battle for African support, both nations are using food aid as a strategic tool. Ukraine’s "Grain from Ukraine" programme has benefited nations such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. However, Russia is also stepping up its efforts, promising free grain to six African countries, including Burkina Faso and Mali.

Africa has, therefore, become a key battleground in the diplomatic war between Russia and Ukraine, with both nations vying for influence through embassies, food aid, and strategic alliances.

While Ukraine faces significant challenges, including diplomatic blunders, its competition with Russia for Africa’s support shows no signs of abating.