Who will win Brazil 2014?
Brazil has never failed to qualify for the World Cup. This record is made the more impressive by their being winners in five out of the last 14 championships. Most pundits would bet on Brazil prior to start of the Mundial since 1958.
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However, Brazil is the one team on which speculators have lost money more heavily than have those who placed bets on other teams. The explanation why people lose so much money on Brazil is provided by investment bankers and stock brokers.
Writing in his book, “Money Mania: Booms, Panics and Bursts…” Bob Swarup lists 10 human behaviours that constitute “The Bias Curse”, a set of attitudes that leads a speculator to lose money. Mr. Frazier thinks these behaviours apply not only to stock-broking, but to all industrial, commercial and entertainment ventures including soccer forecasting and placing of bets.
One of the attitudes that Swarup terms “Hindsight bias” is manifested this way: Many people all over the world make predictions about Brazil winning. Sometimes Brazil does win; many other times they are knocked out. They were champions in 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994 and 2002. But when it comes to predicting winner for 2014, the pundits conveniently forget about the fallow years that Brazil had been sent packing home. They insist that Brazil always wins and stake heavily on that team. They lose their bets.
The other behaviour, the “Hedonic treadmill” works on the principle of “the enjoyable old times’ sake.” Nobody can forget so soon that Spain mesmerised the world with their tikki-takka brand and became world champions in 2010.
They were appropriately hailed as kings who could not be dethroned easily. Soon however, antidotes have been found for their intensely entertaining game which has been proved not as productive as some other strategies. People are clamouring for Brazilian soccer and are pouring heavy bets on that country. Brazil, they say, is Mercedes. Others are just ordinary cars. The chances? They would lose their money.
There is the behaviour termed “Illusion of control.” In ordinary language it may be rendered simply as: We are the best. We know it all. When Brazil wins a world cup, their success is attributed to their skill but when they are eliminated, it is due to ill-luck, bad refereeing or their opponents’ lack of appreciation for beautiful football. Therefore the prediction now is that Brazil will be lucky and there will be no crooked officiating. Brazil must win. Hence the heavy bets on Brazil.
Perhaps the most unpardonable behavior for losing bets is “Overconfidence,” when the punter sticks to a pre-conceived advantage on a horse whose performance has been dipping recently. People who bet regularly on horses always wait to the last moment allowable before they place their bets. They know conditions can change anytime.
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Overconfidence is not the bane of only race-goers. Writers over-indulge it and waste a lot of time but they do not seem to feel it because their loss is not translated immediately to the dwindling of cash in their pockets.
The Feature Editor allots space enough for 800 words at the Op-Ed page for this scribe for his weekly musings. What is the assurance that his readers will read the piece to the 800th word plus the full stop? By the same token people will bet on Brazil because they have the perception that most teams are weak and will succumb to Brazil.
On whom should you place your money in 2014? Certainly not on Brazil! The type of beautiful, individual flair with a lot of pussy-footing that enabled Brazil to win the Cup back to back at one time has proved inadequate for modern championships.
When they won the Cup in 1994 and 2002, the type of game they played was termed “un-football.” Unless Brazil are prepared to descend to that level of kick-about in which some European teams have indulged recently with better results, this host nation is not worth betting on.
Watching the just-concluded European League Championship, it may be safe to predict that the winner of Brazil 2014 is going to be the team that plays like Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid - strong defensively, fluid in mid-field and parading deadly strikers that can squeeze the ball through even the eye of a needle. And where does that place Ghana? For an answer, sponsor Mr. Frazier to the World Cup. He will bring you graphic reports.
• frazierjoek@gmail.com
(Author: Blame not the Darkness and Akora, available at Legon Bookshop; Kingdom Books, La; PAWA House)