As 39 pick presidential forms on the road to Election 2024, is it an issue of misrule or competition?
In an interesting development on Ghana’s political scene, many individuals are becoming attracted by the allure of the presidential office, with staggering figures applying to vie for the presidency this year.
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At least 27 individuals and 12 political parties have picked the relevant forms to compete in the presidential race at our last count as of last Wednesday, with the opportunity still open for other adventurers seeking to “try their luck”.
Indeed, it looks more like a lottery than a careful assessment of their chances given the country’s recent political history with independent presidential candidates and political parties outside the duo of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
Only the NDC and the NPP have occupied the seat of government since the country’s return to constitutional rule in 1993, each of them having governed for eight straight years on two different occasions.
All other political parties that have shown up on the presidential ballot paper have merely added to the number or ended up as appendages of the major two.
In the 1992 and 1996 elections, for instance, the NDC triumphed by carrying along the Egle Party and the National Convention Party in the Progressive Alliance of 1992, and then with the Egle Party and the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) in 1996.
The NPP formed the Great Alliance with the People’s Convention Party (PCP) in 1996. But in 2000 the NPP run on its own strength and annexed the presidency in the 2000 polls.
Since then, however, the relevance of the smaller parties in even parliamentary elections has faded, with only the NDC and the NPP occupying the legislature since the 2016 elections.
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Parties
The 12 political parties that have picked up nomination forms include the New Patriotic Party (NPP), the National Democratic Congress (NDC), the Convention People’s Party (CPP), the Progressive People’s Party (PPP), the Great Consolidated Popular Party (GCPP), and the All People’s Congress (APC).
The rest are the People’s National Convention (PNC), the Liberal Party of Ghana (LPG), the Ghana Union Movement (GUM), the National Democratic Party (NDP), the Ghana Freedom Party (GFP) and the Progressive Alliance for Ghana (PAG).
Independent aspirants
Among the independent aspirants who received passcodes from the EC are George Twum-Barim-Adu, Samuel Apea-Danquah, Alan K. Kyerematen, Nana Kwame Bediako, Jacob Osei Yeboah and Richard Sumah.
The others are Kofi Koranteng, Desmond Abrefa, Dr Agnes Ayisha, Dr Nii Amu Darko, Wilberforce Andrews, Nana Stephens, Rev. Samuel Worlanyo and T. K. Amenya.
The list also includes Robert Roy Reindorf, Paul Perkoh, Seth Ntim Agyarko, Stephen Atubiga, Janet Asana Nabla, Sam Ankrah, Nana Ohene Aggrey Bentsil Djan and Tom Asiseh.
The rest are Kenneth Kwame Asamoah, Tawiah N. Hemans, Muhammad Abdullah, James Kwasi Oppong and Isaac Wiafe Ofori.
A disqualified candidate can appeal against the decision of the EC, while the list of those qualified would be made known after the receipt of nominations.
Experienced candidates
With the NDC fielding former President, John Dramani Mahama, and the NPP presenting Vice-President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia for the December 7, 2024 polls, the two major parties are led by marquee personalities whose intimidating profiles could discourage any pretender seeking mere recognition.
Yet, 27 potentially independent candidates desire to test themselves against the established forces, while 10 other political parties want to oust the de facto duopoly so established under the Fourth Republic.
While it looks like a comical scenario, the sentiments of some political watchers suggest it is a reflection of the despondency of the electorate with the political system.
Analysts’ views
Political Scientist and governance expert, Dr Samuel Kofi Darkwa, for instance, stresses that while there is widespread disillusionment with the major political parties, the lack of credible alternatives complicates the electoral landscape.
Like Dr Darkwa, some other political watchers have given various reasons for the high numbers seeking to occupy the presidency in the December polls.
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A Senior Lecturer of the Department of History and Political Science of the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Dr Kwasi Amakye-Boateng, said the fact that nearly 30 independent individuals had picked nomination forms for the presidential election was an indictment on the political parties for how the presidency had been manned.
“It is by itself an indictment of the main political parties, and have been formed in protest against the apparent bad governance which has eroded people’s incomes,” Dr Amakye-Boateng said.
“Democratic societies tend to react in such ways, among others, to lodge protests against bad leadership and bad governance.
“Given the numbers involved and the fact that political parties tend to have their support base from the grass roots, these new parties are likely to draw their supporters from within the existing political parties.
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“This phenomenon, provided that they succeed in filing their forms, will surely affect the outcome of the polls and hence affect the fortunes of the major political parties,” the political scientist added.
Diversity
Dr Darkwa said with the high number of presidential aspirants, the diversity of candidates could lead to a more complex political landscape with a wider range of ideologies and policies being presented to the electorate, potentially influencing voter preferences and requiring strategic adaptation.
“Under normal circumstances, one could say that the increase in the number of political parties and candidates who have picked forms to contest in the upcoming presidential elections indicate a higher level of political competition,” he said.
“It could also be expected that this may fragment the vote share and make it more challenging for any single party to secure a majority, potentially affecting both the NPP and the NDC,” Dr Darkwa added.
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He said this trend might elevate the significance of coalition-building, and require a more detailed analysis of voter behaviour and polling methodologies.
“Therefore, comprehensive voter engagement, rigorous analysis and strategic adaptation will be important for all parties involved.
“However, the political landscape in Ghana presents unique challenges for smaller parties and independent candidates due to stringent requirements for completing and returning election forms.
These requirements include obtaining signatures from two registered voters in each of the 261 districts and limiting presidential nominees to one candidate per person. As a result, the nomination process alone will eliminate many potential presidential candidates,” he added.
Dr Darkwa further analysed that only the two dominant parties, namely NPP and NDC, were positioned to field candidates in all 276 constituencies, while other candidates would struggle to cover even 50 per cent of constituencies.
This discrepancy, he said, made it unlikely for smaller parties to gain parliamentary representation or form a viable government.
“The dominant parties are unlikely to engage with smaller parties before the initial round of voting on December 7, further limiting their influence,” he said.
The political scientist further asserts that “Ghana's current participation in an IMF programme limits the incoming government's financial flexibility, necessitating experienced leadership to address economic challenges. Thus, voters will vote for experienced hands”.
“While the NDC and the NPP might consider engaging with smaller parties in the event of a presidential run-off, the current political climate favours a decisive victory for the dominant parties, minimising the likelihood of such a scenario,” he added.
Duopoly questioned
“It’s shocking, right?” a Political Science lecturer at the University of Education, Winneba, Gilbert Arhinful Aidoo, asked.
“What does this mean to you? Oh! No! This isn’t a win for Ghana’s democracy, right? Don’t you see an imminent end to the misrule of the country by the NPP and the NDC?
“Who are these 12 political parties and 27 individuals seeking to lead the country? What substance do they bring to the table of men and the altar of good governance?
Can all the smaller parties and individual candidates together constitute the Third Force Ghanaians have missed so much to end the political duopoly in Ghana?” he further asked.
He said while the emergence of any strong Third Force would be healthy for politics in the Fourth Republic, the fact that 39 presidential hopefuls could be on the presidential ballot on December 7, 2024, would be outrageous and unhealthy for the country’s democracy.
Mr Aidoo said in terms of the impact of the numbers on the outcome of the 2024 presidential elections, it was of no effect.
“The huge numbers will not make any difference. It rather strengthens the front of the duo (NPP and NDC) and weakens the smaller ones. What we need today is a more united and formidable Third Force to wrest power from the duo. I dare say that all the small parties together will not even secure three per cent,” he stressed.
No impact
Another political scientist, Ransford Brobbey, said the number of potential presidential candidates on the ballot would have no significant implications for the major parties and the outcome of the polls.
“The data suggest otherwise. NPP and NDC alone since Election 2004 have controlled over 97 per cent of the total votes cast. This was as high as 99.2 per cent in the 2020 elections where 12 parties contested.
Meaning that 0.8 per cent was shared among the other 10. The highest among the other 10 polled just 0.42 per cent, which was the Ghana Union Movement (GUM).