Do you feel close to any particular political party?
Political parties have an interesting history in post-independence Ghana. Their activities were regularly banned anytime the democratic process came to a halt due to a military intervention.
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One of the key transitional activities in the lead up to the Fourth Republic was lifting the ban on political parties and their activities. The Fourth Republic has seen the longest uninterrupted history of political parties and their activities in post-independence Ghana.
When the ban was lifted several parties sprang up, although two − the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) – have emerged as the two dominant ones. There are other political parties who continue to operate but whose support matches nowhere near the support enjoyed by these two.
Democracies, with political parties and regularly held competitive elections, produce, among many things, partisans – people who become aligned with a particular political party. Beyond alignment, these individuals develop very strong attachments to these political parties. One of the consequences is that these partisan attachments shape perceptions on matters of politics and governance.
But in the most recent round of the Afrobarometer survey in 2022, I noticed something peculiar about partisan attachments.
The changing landscape
To measure how partisan Ghanaians are, I turn to this question in the Afrobarometer survey which asks – do you feel close to any particular political party? Ghanaians can respond with Yes, No, Don’t Know or can refuse to answer. How partisan are Ghanaians – that is − how many say they feel close to a particular political party? In the maiden edition of the survey (1999), as many as seven out of 10 (67 per cent) Ghanaians described themselves as partisan, with three out of 10 (33 per cent) describing themselves as non-partisan. Twenty-three years later, when the question was asked in the most recent round of the survey (2022), five out of 10 (48 per cent) described themselves as partisan with another five out of 10 (47 per cent) describing themselves as non-partisan. The remaining five per cent answered “don’t know” or refused to answer the question.
If you compare 1999 to 2022, it shows a 19 percentage points decrease (-19) in the number of Ghanaians who describe themselves as partisan and a 14-percentage point increase (+14) in the number of Ghanaians who describe themselves as nonpartisan.
This is quite remarkable but also quite paradoxical especially against the backdrop of a strong demand for political parties. In Round 2 (2002) 56 per cent said more political parties were needed. In Round 9 (2022), 72 per cent said more political parties were needed. The curious point then is, why will Ghanaians be demanding something they are growing less attached to?
Who are these disappearing partisans
Are there particular demographic groups driving this changing partisan landscape? I examined a few demographic groups and compared 1999 to 2022 to see the percentage change in those who describe themselves as non-partisans.
18-25 years (+18); Post-secondary education (+18); 26-35years old(+16); Middle belt regions (+16); Northern belt regions (+16); Men (+15); Rural areas (+14); Women (+13); Urban areas (+13); 36-45years (+13); Coastal belt regions (+12); No formal school (+12); Secondary school education (+12); Primary school education (+11); 56 years and above (+9); 46-55 years (+7).
Each of the demographic groups above have seen significant increases in the percentage describing themselves as nonpartisan over the last 23 years. It does not appear that any one group is driving the phenomenon notwithstanding the variations in growth.
Declining partisanship – Good or bad?
Is this trend a good thing or a bad thing? For political parties, it may not be comforting to see a significant increase in the percentage of Ghanaians who describe themselves as not feeling close to any political party. In my opinion, it potentially shrinks the base of a political party.
For example, in 1999 the duopoly had seven voters to share between them. In 2022, they only have five to share between them. And if the third parties or other independents are able to chip away at this share, it further decreases the size of the pot from which they have to share.
This makes the political competition even fiercer.
But there is an upside to this. This trend makes it very clear that no party wins an election with just its own sympathisers, something our political parties I am sure already know. To get to the magic number – 50 per cent plus one vote, parties have no choice but to speak to a much broader audience besides just their party base.
The other upside is this. I have often yearned for impartial arbiters in our public discourse on matters of politics and public policy. In my perfect world, these arbiters will mediate and moderate the polarising conversations between partisans.
Perhaps the disappearing partisans will rise up and do this!
The writer is a fellow at the Ghana Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana)