Breaking the eight: Impossible milestone in Ghana's politics?

In 2024, Ghana once again upheld a pattern that has defined elections in its Fourth Republic: The New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) attempt to “break the eight” ended in a decisive loss. 

This marked yet another instance where no political party, since the return to constitutional rule in 1992, has managed to secure a third term in office.

Far from being a reflection of mere voter dissatisfaction or campaign failures, this consistent outcome underscores a deeply rooted democratic culture shaped by historical experiences, cultural values, and a political framework committed to accountability and periodic renewal.

Foundations cycle

The roots of this pattern trace back to Ghana’s colonial and post-independence history. During British rule, power was heavily centralised, forcing local chiefs to support the colonial administration.

While independence in 1957 granted political autonomy, it did not dismantle the inherited governance structures. Kwame Nkrumah used this centralised system to pursue rapid modernisation, but his consolidation of power gradually stifled dissent, culminating in a one-party state by 1964.

The overthrow of Nkrumah in 1966 marked a turning point, reflecting growing discontent with prolonged rule.

The subsequent military regimes of the 1970s and 1980s, led by figures such as General Ignatius Kutu Acheampong and Flight Lieutenant Jerry John Rawlings, initially promised reform but soon fell prey to inefficiency and corruption.

By the time Rawlings transitioned to civilian rule in 1992, Ghanaians had come to see regular power transitions as a necessary safeguard against the risks of centralised authority.

These lessons were codified in the 1992 Constitution which introduced term limits and emphasised electoral accountability. Over the years, these mechanisms have become integral to Ghana’s political culture, symbolising the electorate’s resolve to uphold responsiveness and limit the concentration of power.

Cultural, structural forces

Ghana’s political turnover is not just a product of its historical trajectory; it is also deeply embedded in the country’s cultural values. Proverbs such as “when the drumbeats change, the dancers have to change their steps” embody a societal expectation of adaptability.

In the political sphere, this translates to the idea that leaders must respond to shifting needs or face replacement.

Ethnic and religious factors further reinforce this expectation. Although voting patterns often align with ethnic strongholds, these loyalties weaken when promises remain unfulfilled.

Similarly, religious leaders frame elections as moral opportunities for renewal, urging citizens to align governance with principles of fairness and accountability.

Together, these forces nurture a political culture that views leadership change as both natural and necessary.

The “winner-takes-all” system in Ghana’s governance amplifies these cultural tendencies. This framework gives ruling parties significant control over resources and policymaking, sidelining opposition voices.

Despite repeated promises of decentralisation, successive governments have struggled to empower local authorities, leaving grassroots frustrations unaddressed. By the second term, these systemic inefficiencies often erode voter confidence, setting the stage for change.

Economic pressures further compound these dynamics. Ghana’s reliance on commodity exports and external financing makes its economy vulnerable to global market fluctuations.

Rising inflation, unemployment, and currency depreciation frequently overshadow achievements such as infrastructure projects or social programmes.

For instance, during the NPP’s second term, flagship initiatives such as Free Senior High School and Planting for Food and Jobs were overshadowed by economic hardships, reinforcing voters’ desire for new leadership.

Global, and regional lessons

Ghana’s electoral cycle mirrors global trends where incumbents often struggle to retain power amidst economic grievances and governance fatigue. In the United States, Donald Trump’s return to power in 2024 reflected frustrations with rising inflation and economic instability under the Biden administration.

Similarly, in the United Kingdom, Labour’s victory after 14 years of Conservative rule was fuelled by dissatisfaction with economic challenges and post-Brexit governance.

These examples highlight how unmet expectations frequently drive electorates toward change, even in well-established democracies.

In Africa, Kenya and Nigeria illustrate how proactive governance can help incumbents sustain power. Kenya’s President William Ruto retained office by addressing economic disparities and engaging marginalised communities, while Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ensured continuity through political cohesion and reforms.

On the other hand, Senegal and Botswana highlight the risks of neglecting public grievances. In Senegal, voters turned to opposition leader Bassirou Diomaye Faye after years of economic stagnation, while Botswana’s electorate decisively rejected the ruling party, ending decades of dominance.

These examples serve as both a warning and an inspiration for Ghana.

While countries like Kenya and Nigeria demonstrate how voter trust can be sustained through inclusive policies, Senegal and Botswana remind leaders of the consequences of failing to address economic and governance challenges.

Ghana’s struggle to “break the eight” is thus part of a broader, universal demand for accountability and progress.

Toward breaking cycle

The NPP’s loss in 2024 is both a reaffirmation of Ghana’s democratic maturity and a reminder of the challenges facing political continuity. Breaking the eight-year cycle will require more than campaign slogans or promises of reform.

Structural changes — such as decentralising power, diversifying the economy, and fostering inclusive governance — are essential to addressing the root causes of voter discontent.

Political parties must also adopt long-term policy visions that resonate beyond immediate election cycles. A deeper ideological foundation and a commitment to meaningful reforms could help bridge the gap between governance and public expectations.

Fostering greater collaboration across party lines could also temper the “winner-takes-all” dynamic that exacerbates voter fatigue. Without these changes, Ghana’s 80-year term cycle will likely persist, as predictable as the tides and as impossible to resist.

The writer is a research fellow, 
Innolead International
E-mail: darlington.wiredu@innoleadint.com