Trump Presidency: Implications for Ghana

The imminent Presidency of Donald Trump requires Ghana to immediately recalibrate its diplomatic relationships.

The outcome of Ghana’s December 7 Elections will also call for further recalibration. In this article, we review some of the key aspects of the US-Ghana relationship that any incoming government, especially one led by John Mahama, would need urgently to attend to.

As we consider the possible effects of changes in US policies towards Africa and Ghana, it is essential to evaluate both the potential benefits and challenges ahead. Ghana has long enjoyed a robust partnership with the United States in areas such as trade, technology, security, health, and education. However, with a new US leadership direction, Ghana must be prepared to strategically navigate any potential shifts to ensure a prosperous and resilient future. 

Governance, party-political issues

Traditionally, the NPP has affiliated with the Republican Party in the USA, while the NDC has affiliated with the Democratic Party. The NPP and the Republican Party both have elephant as their symbol.

The victory of Donald Trump in the US elections has given hope to the current NPP administration that they too could be victorious in Ghana. However, the NPP should not ignore other relevant facts.

The most relevant comparator fact is the defeat of an incumbent party in the USA by its opponents. This is what has been widely forecast to happen in Ghana.

Furthermore, is the return of a former President to power in the USA. This strengthens the position of those who argue in favour of former President Mahama’s capacity to return to power.

Also, the main reason Donald Trump won is the belief by the American voter that Trump will be more effective than Kamala Harris in restoring the US economy. On this aspect, most

Ghanaians know that the weakest argument in favour of the NPP is the economy.

Here, the NPP cannot expect any sympathy from the US or Western countries for their financial misgovernance of the economy. Finally, in an increasingly gender-twisted world, Donald Trump has been far more crystal clear about his support for a two-gender only world of men and women, in contrast to the problematic belief by a growing minority in the USA in alphabet-soup of names for other sexual malpractices – LGBTQ++XYZetc, etc!!

On these four most relevant facts, the NDC is fully aligned with the Trump victory in the USA.

Donald Trump, having won an election based mainly on a strong campaign, will have little sympathy for any developing country’s electoral system, where incumbents intend to use underhand methods to win.

On governance and electoral matters – return to power of an ex-President, anti-incumbency, the economy and gender –  the augury is in favour of the NDC. 

Ghana as partner to US

Donald Trump’s victory in the USA is expected to lead to the re-alignment of some global forces. First is the impact on US immigration and the outlook for Ghanaians who wish to visit, work study or live in the USA.

Already, the US has indicated that it will not be a haven for criminals from other countries who seek refuge there. This is a message to any NPP officials who hope to hide loot from their time in government.

President Mahama’s “Recover All Loot” policy will bite not only corrupt officials but also electoral and security service officials who engage in wrongdoing before, during and after the elections.

The combined Trump and Mahama policies will leave little room for official misconduct.

As the new leader of the “Free World”, Trump is expected to reduce the US role in fighting other people’s battles in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, South Sudan, Taiwan and elsewhere.

At the UN, Trump officials will have little patience with African leaders who despoil their environment and seek a bailout from the West. High-level corruption may find nowhere to hide. 

Potential enhanced export trade

Under the Trump administration’s previous tenure, the emphasis on “Trade, Not Aid” and Ghana’s own “Ghana Beyond Aid” mantra offered Ghana the possibilities for export-oriented approach to an old relationship.

This second coming of Trump, when it coincides with a second coming of John Mahama, could unlock extraordinary opportunities for “Making Ghana Great Again” in unison with Trump’s own MAGA (Make America Great Again) slogan. These new possibilities, especially in agriculture, textiles, and minerals, are industries critical to Ghana’s export economy.

For instance, Ghanaian cocoa exports, already significant, ought to benefit from tariff adjustments. However, the crippling of the cocoa sector under the current administration, will not give Ghana enough immediate headroom for a quick turnaround.

Ghana’s entitlements under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which I helped Ghana to negotiate from 1994-7, have never been fully exploited. It will take very adroit knowledge and skill sets in trade and financial/investment negotiations to get a bankrupt country to receive clemency in international circles.

Worse for Ghana is the negative reputation Ghana earned during the PDS scandal leading to the cancellation of nearly USD 200 million of assistance from the Millennium Challenge Account. Equally bad was the treatment of Exxon, the US’s largest oil company, when it attempted to do business in Ghana’s energy sector, and had to withdraw in embarrassment. 

Restoring reputation

How does Ghana restore the reputation for quality of Ghana’s cocoa exports, when the whole world is aware of the effects of galamsey on the cocoa industry?

Ghana could make better use of the location in Ghana of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to promote several US-Ghana, global, African and West African-ECOWAS objectives. 

We need Ghanaian and African products to be more competitive on the US and European markets. Expanding trade can stimulate skills development,  job creation and encourage the growth of local industries, giving Ghana the opportunity to position itself as a strong trade partner within the (AfCFTA) framework.

The Trump administration has presented the world with some sharp contrasts and options.

Ghana continues to be generally well respected in the international community, mostly due to our relative levels of education, comportment of our citizens, democracy and economic prospects.

Sadly, the last few years have led Ghana to the bottom of several global development indices — bankrupt and the large debt overhang, huge budget deficits, low rating for many aspects of democracy and freedoms of the media and of expression, poor image of our judiciary and low enforcement institutions, the spoilage of our rivers, water bodies and forest corer, wide scale corruption and weakening of the national moral fibre.

These and other travails are a tall order for any incoming government in January 2025.

However, an adroit line-up of Team Ghana with a smart blend of honest, able, competent and experienced appointees, led by John Mahama, must be part of the potent arsenal that must present to the Ghanaian electorate and the international community, to enable the country to navigate its way successfully out of the current morass.

The writer is former Amvassador to the USA and Minister of Communications.