Tug of war over Ukraine — What outcome?

In theory countries do not interfere in one another’s governments because of the norm of sovereignty.

In practice, however, countries often have strong interest in the governments of other states and use variety of means of leverage to influence those who hold power in those countries.

Weapons, money, military advisers and so forth are placed at the disposal of some countries by the powerful ones.

These powerful countries actively promote change in government in the countries they wish to influence through covert operations and support to rebels and opposition entities.

United States and Russia are well known for these tactics which were very common, especially during the period of the Cold War.

Thirst influence

Today, Ukraine stands as a clear example of how the Great Powers within the international community can display a thirst for influence in the affairs of sovereign states.

A former member of the defunct Soviet Union and a close neighbour to Russia, Ukraine has become a rope between the West on one side and Russia on the other side, all pulling hard to have Ukraine rolled up to their side of influence.

The West, under the leadership of America, is energised by the desire to create peace and democracy in Eastern Europe, while Russia, on the other hand, is cheered on by nationalists and anti-Western political forces who are pushing hard for Vladimir Putin to guarantee Russia’s Security in the face of NATO expansion into former Soviet enclaves.

In that situation, the question to ponder over for the moment is, whose actions in Ukraine is most justified, and whose motives can be more trustworthy?

Russia

A recurrent geopolitical theme for centrally located countries such as Russia is the threat of being surrounded.

Over the centuries, the Soviet Union, now succeeded by Russia, has experienced repeated devastating land invasions culminating in the Second World War.

The loss of 26 million Soviet lives in the “Great Patriotic War” as the Russians wish to call the Second World War, re-enforces long standing fear of foreign invasion which causes generation of Soviet policy makers to perceive any Western military move close to its borders with suspicion and often alarm.

The recent NATO expansion beyond the East-West Cold War divide line has always angered Russia who sees it as re-asserting the dividing lines on the map of Europe but put closer to its borders.

Russia’s attempt to control buffer states within the former Soviet enclave is seen by the West as an aggression but Russia sees its actions as defensive in nature.

West

The massing up of troops along the Ukrainian’s border by Russia is a desperate attempt on the part of Russia to hold on tight to its end of the Ukrainian rope and pull it hard towards its sphere of influence.

The West, led by the United States, has also not relented in their pull. Massive military support has been given to Ukraine to counteract any eventual military incursion into its territory by Russia.

There is also a threat of massive sanctions that has the potential to bring Russia’s economy to its knees if it invades Ukraine.

At the moment, no one knows the outcome of the current Russia-Ukraine crisis.

But what the world knows for sure is that, notwithstanding the outcome, the current crisis, as it stands, cannot be in the interest of any of the players involve. Russia stands to lose, if its troops invade Ukraine.

The world has to grapple with an angry state with nuclear capability, if the West shoves Russia’s security concerns under the carpet. The memory of Nazi Germany and the eruption of the Second World War is a good lesson for everyone in this regard.

Diplomatic breakthrough currently stands as the only means for any of the players in the tug of war over Ukraine to pick a win home.

The earlier the ongoing diplomatic maneuvering currently ongoing succeeds, the better.

The writer is with the Institute of Current Affairs and Diplomacy (ICAD), E-mail: Lawmat2014@gmail.com: