Who will replace Pope Francis? These cardinals stand out in the conclave
When it comes to predicting who will succeed Pope Francis, expect the unexpected.
Since the Catholic Church began selecting popes in a highly secretive conclave, rarely have the rumoured front-runners prevailed.
Popes John XXIII, John Paul II and Francis were once considered long shots.
This year is also the most diverse conclave in history, with the 133 cardinal-electors representing 72 different countries.
There are many cardinals known as "papabile", meaning they possess qualities considered necessary to be pope.
But each has their own unique credentials, connections and appeal.
Here's a look at some of the candidates who stand out for different reasons.
Most credentialed
Pietro Parolin, 70, Italy
At the top of the credentials list is Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin.
As the current secretary of state, he is often referred to as the deputy pope due to his second-rank position in the Vatican hierarchy.
Described as "softly spoken", the 70-year-old is a seasoned diplomat with a global vision.
He played a key role in mediating a thaw between the United States and Cuba, orchestrated a Vatican agreement with China on naming bishops and is seen as an expert in matters concerning the Middle East.
Australian Catholic University historian Darius von Guttner said Parolin's global presence made him a highly capable contender.
"He's the sort of person who could keep things running smoothly with a strong hand, making him a top contender on paper," he said.
Despite his strong diplomatic skills and global contacts, some Vatican observers say Parolin's lack of pastoral experience could hold him back.
Cardinal Parolin is seen as a compromise candidate between progressives and conservatives.
His stance on societal issues can often be vague, but he has been critical of same-sex marriage legislation and has denounced abortion as a serious violation of human dignity.
Punters' picks
Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, 67, Philippines
Not afraid to dance in church and show his playful side, Luis Antonio Tagle, the Archbishop of Manila, is popular among bookmakers.
As gambling companies offer odds on various candidates to succeed Pope Francis, many sites place Cardinal Parolin as the top contender, closely followed by the 67-year-old Filippino.
Could the first Asian pope replace Francis?
Photo shows Pope Francis hugs Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.Pope Francis hugs Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.
There's increasing hope among Catholics in the Philippines that one of their own, Cardinal Luis Tagle, who is considered a contender to succeed Pope Francis, and has a reputation for being a relatively open minded voice in the Church might become Asia's first Pope.
Preferring to go by his nickname "Chito", the cardinal is considered a frontrunner for his charismatic appeal and ability to connect with people.
Italian student Federico La Rocca is among more than 60,000 people who have been playing Fantapapa, or Fantasy Pope, which mimics popular fantasy football and soccer leagues.
He has Tagle among his favourites because "he looks like a nice guy and fun person".
Cardinal Tagle is also popular on social media, with "Tagle Core" videos going viral on TikTok.
Dubbed the "Asian Francis", he is dedicated to social issues and has a sympathy for migrants shared with the late pope.
He opposes abortion rights but has called for the church to reassess its "severe" stance towards gay people, divorcees and single mothers.
Although he displays his cheery personality and sense of humour, he is also known as "a shrewd negotiator", according to the College of Cardinals report.
If chosen, he could make history and become the first-ever pope from Asia.
Watchdog group BishopAccountability.org issued a warning last week that Tagle and Cardinal Parolin could not be relied on to protect children, accusing them of "failing to act on abuse cases".
It prompted the Philippines' governing body of Catholic bishops to release a rare statement on clerical sexual abuse.
It said that "addressing allegations of misconduct by clergy rests with the respective diocesan bishops or religious superiors" and not with Tagle.
Francis 2.0
Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, France
For those wanting someone to continue in Pope Francis's footsteps, Jean-Marc Aveline, the Archbishop of Marseille, is among the strong contenders.
Often pictured with a big smile, the 66-year-old is known for his folksy, easy-going nature, jokes and his ideological proximity to Francis.
There has been speculation — often in French media — that he was Francis's favourite cardinal to succeed him.
If he got the top job, Aveline would become the first French pope since the 14th century and the youngest pope since John Paul II.
But he does not speak Italian, which some say may be a major drawback for a job that also carries the title Bishop of Rome.
A cadinal in his mid-60s in black robe with red detail poses for photo outside the Vatican.
As the General Secretary of the Synod, Mario Grech is well-known to a lot of the cardinals. (AP: Markus Schreiber)
Mario Grech from Gozo, a tiny island that is part of Malta, is also deeply connected to the Franciscan ethos and could carry on his legacy.
The 68-year-old is secretary-general of the Synod of Bishops, a heavyweight position within the Vatican.
Shift from Francis
Péter Erdő, 72, Hungary
On the other end of the spectrum is Hungarian Péter Erdő, the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.
In its 800-year history, a conclave has never been this diverse.
Described as "cautious, risk-averse, even timid", Cardinal Erdő never clashed openly with Francis.
But he raised eyebrows in the Vatican during the 2015 migrant crisis when he went against Francis's call for churches to take in refugees, saying this would amount to human trafficking.
The views were seemingly aligned with Hungary's nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is said to be a strong supporter of the cardinal.
The 72-year-old is also firmly against the acceptance of homosexual unions and strongly pro-life.
"He's been a staunch defender of traditional church teachings, particularly on issues like marriage and family life," Professor von Guttner said.
"His candidacy would likely appeal to those looking for a papacy with a more doctrinally conservative approach."
Progressive-leaning 'Don'
Matteo Zuppi, 69, Italy
Often spotted casually cycling down the cobbled streets of Bologna, Matteo Zuppi is considered a more progressive pick.
The Archbishop of Bologna is "very much on the leftist political wing of the Church", according to the College of Cardinals Report.
A born-and-bred Roman with a fairly thick regional accent, the 69-year-old would be the first Italian pope since 1978.
Known for his warm and approachable style, much like Pope Francis, Cardinal Zuppi is known as a "street priest".
A cadrinal in black robe points at Pope Francis, who is sitting down, wearing white, and laughing at the man's actions.
Known as a personable prelate, Cardinal Zuppi shares a moment with Pope Francis during the 50th Catholic Social Week last year. (Reuters: Alessandro Garofalo)
Affectionately known as "Don Matteo", he focuses on migrants and the poor, social justice and environmental concerns and cares little about pomp and protocol.
Rather than travelling in an official car, the "bicycling cardinal" often prefers to make his own way around town.
Cardinal Zuppi's approach is about "rejecting hate", playing a role in the church's efforts to engage with the world in a more inclusive and socially conscious way.
He is well-respected in the Global South, is in favour of blessing same-sex couples, and has indicated he's open to the idea of allowing married men to become priests.
Influential Africans
Peter Turkson, 76, Ghana
A bishop from Ghana stands in front of a wall with a gold hanging coat of arms in the Vatican.
When it comes to the Global South, Peter Turkson from Ghana stands out.
The 76-year-old once played in a funk band and has been described as charismatic, tech-savvy and a good communicator.
What goes on inside the conclave to elect the next pope?
Photo shows Cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel.Cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel.
Electing a new pope is a centuries-old process that involves the Catholic Church's most senior officials from around the world, and two different colours of smoke.
As one of the church's most influential figures from Africa, Cardinal Turkson has a long history of advocating for the poor and marginalised.
Dr Sandie Cornish, senior lecturer in the Australian Catholic University School of Theology, has met the cardinal.
He was the president of the Vatican Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development when she became a member.
"He's been very involved in work for justice, ecology and peace, from his time in Africa as a bishop there," she said.
"He also knows a lot of the cardinals because of his work over the years in Rome."
A graffiti artist in Kenya wearing a beanie paints a portrait of Pope Francis, working in front of a mural of a black woman.
At least 20 per cent of the global Catholic community is in Africa. (AP: Brian Inganga)
Cardinal Turkson has generally not shied away from affirming the church's traditional positions on marriage between a man and a woman, and homosexuality.
But in a 2023 interview with the BBC, he said homosexuality should not be a criminal offence.
Robert Sarah of Guinea and Fridolin Ambongo of Congo are also among the African cardinals cited as "papabile".
At least 20 per cent of the global Catholic community is in Africa, which "is characterised by a highly dynamic spread of the Catholic Church", according to a recent Vatican report.
Some say having a pope from Africa, or Asia — which is also seeing strong Catholic growth — would signal a powerful message of inclusion.
It would be the first African pope in 1,500 years.
Australia in the mix
Mykola Bychok, 45, Ukrainian-born, Melbourne-based
Mykola Bychok, the Melbourne-based cardinal with roots in Eastern Europe, would be a wildcard.
Born in the Ukrainian city of Ternopil, at 45 he is the youngest member of the Sacred College of Cardinals.
He brings a unique international perspective to the table, with an understanding of both Western and Eastern Catholic traditions.
But Vatican observers say his age makes him an unlikely contender.
"If they chose a person who is 45, that person could be pope for a really long time," Hannah Brockhouse, the Catholic News Agency's senior Vatican correspondent, said.
"So I don't think that is a direction they would go."
Cardinal Bychok has been vocal about the war in Ukraine, calling for an end to the conflict.
If a Ukrainian-born pope were chosen in 2025, it would carry a strong message about the church's concern for global peace.
Surprise pick
Robert Prevost, 69, United States
A bald bishop in a red cape clasps his hands while posing for a photo.
Cardinal Prevost has kept a low profile since arriving in Rome, but he is well-known to the men who count. (Reuters: Yara Nardi)
If the church wanted to send a political message, it could go for Chicago-born Robert Prevost.
There has long been a taboo against an American pope, given the geopolitical power already wielded by the United States in the secular sphere.
A fictional scenario from a film raises a real question: Could the new pope come from a country where Catholics are not the majority?
But Cardinal Prevost has spent much of his life outside the US and is also a Peruvian citizen.
Some of his views also clash with the Trump administration, especially his alignment with Pope Francis's pro-migration policies.
"His selection might be interesting, especially given the political context in the US right now, as his views on Church issues might not align with the current political establishment," Professor von Guttner said.
In 2023, the 69-year-old was brought to the Vatican to serve as the powerful head of the office that vets bishop nominations from around the world.
It is one of the most important jobs in the Catholic Church.
