Prioritise devt plan over manifestos - Economists to parties

Two economists have called for the prioritisation of a national development plan over political party manifestos, indicating that this is the right path to a coordinated development.

They consequently bemoaned the increasing resort to political party manifestos as the blueprint for governing the country.

A Professor of Economics, Prof. Peter Quartey, and an economics researcher, Dr Said Boakye, agreed that the lack of a long-term development plan to guide national development via the political parties’ policies and programmes is a drawback.

They said the absence of such an arrangement had turned campaign promises into development policies, which were forcefully implemented in government, irrespective of the dangers such policies posed to the economy and the country at large.

In separate interviews this week, Prof. Quartey and Dr Boakye stated that the country needed to change from that practice to prevent the system from collapsing in the long run.

The two professionals were speaking to the Daily Graphic after the launch of the manifestos of the NPP and the NDC, which the parties are now using to canvass for votes ahead of the December 7 general election.

Prof. Quartey, who is the Director of the Institute for Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) of the University of Ghana, Legon, and Dr Boakye, the Director of Research at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), declined to comment on the substance of the two manifestos.

They explained that the logic behind the manifestos was flawed, and so any attempt to analyse them would amount to lending credence to the practice.

They said until the manifestos were aligned to and anchored on a long-term development plan, the NPP and the NDC would continue to toy with the development aspirations of the country through promises that sought to win them power and not to entrench development.

They maintained that manifestos were not costed properly, whereas development plans were comprehensive programmes of action. Besides, nobody tracked manifestos, but development plans had annual progress reports.

With 42 days to the crucial general election on December 7, the two main political parties, the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), have intensified their campaigns, projecting the superiority of their manifestos to the electorate.

The manifesto documents of the parties appear decidedly overly ambitious, with some pundits questioning the relevance of manifestos in delivering public good after elections.

Indeed, some analysts say the manifestos of the two parties are heavy on promises but lack practical strategies and resource mobilisation plans to implement them in government.

Already, two independent candidates, Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen of the Movement for Change (M4C) and Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force Movement, are also criss-crossing the country, selling their economic blueprints to win power.

Mr Kyerematen has a five-year strategic plan that he describes as the Great Transformational Plan (GTP), meant to develop Ghana.

Nana Bediako, on the other hand, has outlined a comprehensive plan for economic growth and development of the country through 12 key pillars, which focus on a 16-Regional Industrial Revolution to harness the country’s natural resources and agricultural potential.

On two occasions, the National Development Planning Commission (NDPC), which is legally mandated to plan the country's long-term development, had developed long-term plans spanning 40 years and seven years.

However, those plans have been shelved by the counter parties, mainly on the basis of ideological disagreements.

Article 87(2)(b) of the 1992 Constitution mandates the NDPC to, among other things, make proposals for the development of multi-year rolling plans, taking into consideration the resource potential and comparative advantage of the different districts of Ghana.

The Petroleum Revenue Management Act, 2011 (Act 815) also underlines the importance of a long-term development plan.

The law stipulates that the petroleum revenue channelled into the annual budget should go into funding projects that are in line with the long-term development goal of the country.

It is only in the absence of that long-term plan that the law allows the selection of four priority areas, but which for the past 10 years has rather become the default position for the use of the revenue.

Overly ambitious plans

At the basic level, the NPP promises to introduce a fully digitised economy to improve operational efficiencies and productivity while reducing corruption by minimising the human interface in the delivery of public goods and services.

Prof. Godfred Bokpin

The NDC, on the other hand, bases its campaign on a 24-hour economy, using two or three shifts of working hours to step up production.

Analysts say the NPP’s plan to focus on digital skills acquisition to create one million new jobs ignores the biggest obstacle to economic growth, the lack of a local productive capacity, which forces the country to be import dependent.

Critics say digitisation is a service activity, and that without manufacturing underpinning it, fundamental problems of balance of payment deficits will still remain.

For the NDC’s 24-hour economy, experts contend that the plan is a medium to long-term project, but may potentially suffer constraints to deliver quality wages and salaries for labour in the shift system.

The policy could also potentially suffer from the lack of the machinery and technology to compete with imported goods in terms of pricing.

Key departure

However, the biggest point of departure between the two parties, as contained in their respective manifestos, is the issue of business ownership.

While both parties say they will actively encourage local content and local participation in the economy, the NPP will rely on local cost competitiveness to make this happen, while the NDC says it will engage in “open affirmative action” to ensure that more women get involved in business ownership.

Both parties have pit their own proposed solutions against each other, but realism requires that whoever wins the election will need to combine increased production hours in the private sector with digital delivery of public sector goods and services.

But economist and Professor of Finance at the University of Ghana Business School, Godfred Bokpin, believes voters may be disappointed because the two parties may only deliver between 40 to 45 per cent of their manifesto promises when in power.

Tax freebies

This, he said, was because both parties were promising many tax reliefs and a massive investment in infrastructure.

“Looking at the revenue programmes presented by the political parties, I think the most realistic estimate is between 40 to 45 per cent in terms of quantity, not quality,” the don said in an interview.

Currently, Ghana faces fiscal constraints and uncompleted projects dating back to 2012, making it challenging to take on new projects.

“Ghanaians may be disappointed, and, therefore, they should temper their expectations. All political parties make similar promises, but the difference lies in their delivery,” he said.

Some of these promises are medium to long term, requiring 10 to 15 years to implement and impact ordinary Ghanaians. For instance, both parties’ promises from 2012 till date remain unfulfilled.

He said the proposed government size was also worrying, with the NDC and NPP aiming for around 50 ministers each.

“I believe we should revisit the Constitution and consider reducing the number of ministers to 19, with a few supporting ministries, totalling less than 40,” Prof. Bokpin said.

That, he said, would free up resources, adding that saving one per cent of the country’s budget would be more beneficial than maintaining an oversized government.