Who wins race to the White House, Trump or Harris?

The 2024 US election is shaping up to be one of the closest races in living memory, with much of the world watching with great anticipation. In fact, since the emergence of Donald Trump as a presidential force, it can sometimes feel like US politics gets as much media coverage in the US and across the globe than ever before.

On Tuesday, November 5  2024 about 240 million citizens who are eligible voters both home and abroad will head to the polls to elect the next US President.

They will also be voting for some members of Congress, who play a key role in passing laws that can have a profound effect on Americans. The Congress consists of the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for election and the Senate, where 34 seats are being contested as well as 13 governors in different states and territories.

The Democrats are the liberal political party, with an agenda defined largely by its push for civil rights, a broad social safety net and measures to address climate change.

The Republicans are the conservatives. Also known as the GOP or the Grand Old Party, it has stood for lower taxes, shrinking the size of the government, gun rights and tighter restrictions on immigration and abortion.

The two Houses

Republicans currently control the House of Representatives which initiates spending plans while the Democrats are in charge of the Senate, which votes on key appointments in government. These two chambers pass laws and can act as a check on White House plans if the controlling party in either chamber disagrees with the President.

In the Republican Party, former President Donald Trump, seeking a return to office after his 2017-21 term chose Ohio Senator, JD Vance to be his running mate. and for the Democrats, Vice-President Kamala Harris joined the race after President Joe Biden dropped out. Her running mate is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Should she win, Harris, would be the first female President.

Independent candidates

From the beginning, some independent candidates were running for president and one of the most prominent was Robert F Kennedy Jr, nephew to former president John F Kennedy, but he suspended his campaign in late August and endorsed Trump.

With just a few days to go, the race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris remains as tight as ever. Both candidates and their running mates are campaigning.

Early voting in some states, including crucial swing states of Georgia and North Carolina, is already underway and more than 59 million Americans have already voted, according to the Election Lab which opens a new tab at the University of Florida.

 Swing States

Most likely, the outcome of the election will rely heavily on seven key swing states and experts believe there are only a handful of so-called "swing" states that could plausibly be won by either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump. 

The Seven states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Although the remaining 43 states are equally relevant, there is already a better assumption of how those states are likely to vote as some states are strongly Democratic, while others are strongly Republican, making predictions easier. However, when it comes to swing states, they tend to be more closely divided and unpredictable in a close election.

If the presidential race is assumed to be within 5 points, it can be determined that Vice President Kamala Harris will secure at least 226 electoral votes from the highly Democratic states. Former President  Trump is likely to receive 219 electoral votes from the safe Republican states. Ultimately, this will leave the remaining 93 electoral votes from the seven swing states to determine which candidate receives the 270 votes needed to achieve victory.

Electoral College

What makes the American way of electing a president unique is that winning the popular vote, the majority of the total votes cast, does not necessarily mean victory and this has happened five times in US history.  Most recently in 2016, when Trump prevailed despite Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.

In 2000, Republican George W. Bush won against then-Vice President Al Gore, despite Gore taking the popular vote by more than a half-million votes.

The framers of the US Constitution implemented a system known as the Electoral College, which is a 538-member body of designated electors composed of US congressional members and two senators from each state.

Whoever wins the popular vote of each state gets all the electoral votes for that state, a winner-takes-all scenario. The exceptions to that rule are the states of Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are divided based on congressional district and statewide election results.

Presidential candidate

To become the President, a candidate needs a majority of the 538 electoral votes, with the magic number being 270. Larger states have more electoral votes, such as California (54), Texas (40), Florida (30) and New York (28), while places such as Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming have 3 votes each.

Washington DC, which does not have voting representation in Congress, also has 3 electoral votes. While California and New York are traditionally Democratic, or blue states, Texas and Florida are predominantly Republican, or red states, so Democrats and Republicans alike are usually assured of those electoral votes in their strongholds.

Swing state 

The latest numbers from polling tracker 538, which calculates the average of all major polls in the US, show Harris and Trump are virtually tied, running neck-and-neck in those battleground states.

The average of the national presidential polls shows Harris leading Trump by a margin of 48.1 per cent - 46.4 per cent but add in the margin of error, and again, both candidates are in a virtual draw. That makes voter turnout especially important because every vote will most assuredly make a difference in this election.

Trump lost the state of Georgia to President Joe Biden in 2020 by just under 12,000 votes. He also lost the state of Wisconsin by about 10,500 votes, which is why both candidates are stumping hard and targeting the swing states in their final push to the finish line.

Once the final votes are counted after November 5 to determine the winner, electors will meet on December 17 to cast their ballots for President. Congress will then formally count and certify the final overall vote at a special session on January 6, officially declaring the winner of the 2024 presidential election.