Africa’s governance crisis - Insights from the Afrobarometer survey

Satisfactorily addressing public problems is key to good governance and a critical function of any government.

African citizens have several public problems they expect their respective governments to address.

In the most recent fully completed round of the Afrobarometer survey (Round 9, 2021-2023), the following emerged as the top five – a) management of the economy; b) unemployment; c) water supply; d) crime and security; and e) infrastructure/roads.

The survey regularly asks citizens to rate how well the government is handling several public problems. In this piece, I argue that, based on responses from Round 9 (2021-2023), there is a continent-wide governance crisis.

The survey covered a total of thirty-nine countries with sub-regional variations in terms of country participation as follows – a) West Africa (15); b) East Africa (7); c) Southern Africa (10); d) North Africa (3); and e) Central Africa (4).

Government performance

Economic issues. Across five economic issues, the percentage of Africans who rated government performance as “fairly well/very well” was quite low – a) managing the economy (27 per cent); b) improving living standards of the poor (22 per cent); c) creating jobs (20 per cent); d) keeping prices stable (12 per cent); and e) narrowing income gaps (16 per cent). 

Social issues

Across six social issues, the percentage of Africans who rated government performance as “fairly well/very well” ranged as follows – a) reducing crime (37 per cent); b) improving basic health services (42 per cent); c) addressing educational needs (47 per cent); d) addressing climate change (43 per cent); d) protecting the environment (44 per cent); and e) protecting vulnerable children (46 per cent).

Across three key amenities, the percentage of Africans who rated government performance as “fairly well/very well” ranged as follows – a) providing water and sanitation services (39 per cent); b) providing reliable supply of electricity (45 per cent); and c) maintaining roads and bridges (40 per cent).

Political issues

Across three political issues, the percentage of Africans who rated government performance as “fairly well/very well” ranged as follows- a) fighting corruption (31 per cent); b) preventing or resolving violent conflict (46 per cent); and c) promoting equal rights/opportunities for women (58 per cent).

From the evaluation scores, there are three observations worth noting about government performance – a) handling political issues is generally fairly rated well with the sore spot being the fight against corruption; b) handling social issues and the provision of basic amenities receive slightly better evaluations when compared to economic issues; and c) handling of economic issues is the real sore spot in the continent’s governance crisis.

Consequences of the governance crisis

Governing has consequences and how well citizens feel government is addressing the many public problems they face does affect other areas of their lived experience and perceptions of their country. The current governance crisis I describe above is having the following effect.

First, as many as seven out of 10 (67 per cent) Africans say their countries are “going in the wrong direction.”

The sentiment is shared across the sub-regions with countries in Central Africa leading (77 per cent), followed by Southern Africa (74 per cent), North Africa (70 per cent), West Africa (64 per cent) and East Africa (59 per cent) in that order.

Second, as many as seven out of 10 (73 per cent) say present economic conditions are “fairly bad/very bad” with another six out of 10 (63 per cent) describing their present living conditions the same way. Please note that the percentages exclude certain categories of responses (don’t know, refused to answer, neither good nor bad).

Third, citizens are not very optimistic about economic conditions because 38 per cent do say they expect these conditions to be “worse/much worse.” Another 20 per cent say they expect them to remain the same. From the rating of economic conditions at both the country and personal level, these are not encouraging sentiments.

Fourth, citizens report facing deprivation in areas such as food (59 per cent), medical care (66 per cent), and cash income (81 per cent). Deprivations are more pronounced in Central Africa – food (74 per cent), medical care (77 per cent), and cash income (88 per cent).

These percentages represent those who report having gone without them, at least once in a twelve-month period. 

Where do we go from here?

There are global concerns about democratic backsliding including in African countries. The pinch points being felt by citizens as captured by the Afrobarometer survey have long-term consequences for two dimensions of the democracy architecture.

In a simple linear regression analysis, the details which I won’t bother you with, the more positive citizens feel about the extent to which governments are addressing economic and political issues as well as providing basic amenities, the more they support democracy as the preferred form of government.

Additionally, the more positive citizens feel about the extent to which governments are addressing economic, social and political issues, the more they express satisfaction with the way democracy is working.

To consolidate our democracies, the signal from citizens is clear – address the key social, economic and political problems they face.

The writer is the Project Director, Democracy Project.