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Road to Election 2024: Experts write off minority parties

Michael Quaye Politics Aug - 06 - 2024 , 11:29

Across eight elections in the Fourth Republic, the influence of the smaller political parties in Ghana has diminished with time despite the promise that attended their formation and inauguration.

While they have struggled, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) have grown in size, capacity and influence, narrowing the political space for the 'pretenders' and swallowing the chunk of their membership along the way.

For the December 2024 elections, prospective Independent candidates, Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako, are the latest additions to the statistics of minority players claiming to represent a mythical third force in Ghanaian politics.

While Mr Kyerematen advances the interest of the Yellow Butterfly, the group he has christened Movement for Change, Nana Bediako, aka Cheddar, calls his political adventure The New Force.

In either case, they claim to have the formula to unlock Ghana's development, promising to transition the country into what has proven an elusive economic haven.

The two, along with the likes of the People's National Convention (PNC) and the Convention People's Party (CPP), two parties aligned with the Nkrumaist socialist ideology, have begun warming up for yet another try against the heavyweights in December this year.

Also in the mix are Akua Donkor's Development Freedom Party (DFP), the National Development Party (NDP) led by Nana Konadu Agyemang Rawlings, and Hassan Ayariga's All People's Congress (APC).

This is in spite of the fact that the minority parties together have not been able to make two per cent of the total votes in each of the last three presidential elections.

Two-horse race

But some academics and political watchers say the minority parties and candidates cannot do more than forcing the presidential election into a run-off.

Political Science lecturer at the University of Education, Winneba (UEW), Gilbert Arhinful Aidoo, for instance, said despite the flamboyant entry into the presidential race by Mr Kyerematen and Cheddar, their fate would not be different from others who showed up before them or the existing minority parties.

"The two-horse race by the NDC and NPP is still expected to continue in Ghana’s December 7, 2024 general elections," Mr Arhinful Aidoo told the Daily Graphic.

He nonetheless acknowledged the significance of the two candidates, given the hype of their respective unveiling. "In the context of the 2024 polls, several issues, including the emergence of the New Force Movement and more crucially the breakaway and formation of the Movement for Change and the subsequent launch of the Alliance for Revolutionary Change (ARC) by Mr Kyeremateng have sparked speculation about the potential for a strong third force.

"However, in my view, these minority political parties may not make much difference in the final outcome of the 2024 polls," he asserted.

He stated that generally, minority parties might bring alternative perspectives and policy proposals, such as social justice, corruption, and economic diversification to the political discourse.

"In closely contested constituencies, minority parties can play a pivotal role, attracting a small percentage of votes that can alter the outcome of races. They can mobilise specific segments of the electorate, such as young voters and women, to increase voter turnout and ensure a broader range of voices is heard.

"The performance of minority parties in the elections can shape the post-election political environment, particularly in a hung Parliament scenario. Their influence in forming coalitions or alliances can be crucial, giving minority parties a bargaining chip to push for their policy priorities," he added.

Established duopoly

The Project Director of the Democracy Project, Dr John Osae-Kwapong, was similarly emphatic that “the country’s multiparty democracy is a duopoly” given that the historical performance of the minority parties “has been on a steep decline”.

He asserted, therefore, that the minority parties were not likely to have a major impact in the outcome of the 2024 elections on account of their history, but added a caveat that Mr Kyerematen’s presence in the mix could make a difference.

“Between 1992 and 2000 (Round 1), the total votes won by minority party candidates, including independent candidates, grew by five percentage points. However, since then the decline has been very steep.

Between 2000 and 2004 (-47%); 2004 and 2008 Round 1 (-50%); 2008 Round 1 and 2012 (-32%); and 2016 and 2020 (-60%). The only exception was the decline of just six per cent between the 2012 and 2016 elections,” he analysed.

He said cumulatively, it meant “the total votes of minority party candidates, including independent candidates, have declined by about 93 per cent between their best performance in 2000 and the most recent 2020 election”.

“The presence of Mr Kyerematen in the race makes his independent candidature one to watch. Given that he emerged from the duopoly by breaking away from the NPP, it will be interesting to see his effect on the political fortunes of the NPP, especially in their Ashanti Region stronghold,” he said.

Unlikely impact

Political scientist, Dr Samuel Kofi Darkwa, said the biggest impact the minority parties could cause might be to take the elections into a run-off, although he believes "that is very unlikely".

Dr Darkwa said so far, "there is no clear alternative" even if the voting populace felt some level of disappointment with the two major parties.

This, he stressed, had left the electorate "feeling like they have to choose between the 'lesser of two evils' in the form of the NPP and the NDC. This reflects the strong grip that the two major parties have on the political landscape, partly due to the dynamics of the country’s electoral system".

He explained that since the country transitioned to democratic rule in 1992, the governing NPP and the major opposition party NDC "have been the dominant players in the country's electoral landscape" largely due to Ghana's single-member constituency and first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system.

"In a single-member constituency, only one representative is elected to Parliament to represent that constituency, and the FPTP system means that the candidate with the most votes, even if by a narrow margin, wins the constituency. This system tends to produce two viable candidates or parties, leading to tactical voting," Dr Dankwa said.

"This means that voters often concentrate their support on the two most viable candidates or parties, sometimes voting against their least favoured option rather than for their preferred one. This limits the impact of minor parties, with the most attention on the NDC and NPP.”

"From 2004 onward, the two parties have increasingly dominated, capturing 97 per cent or more in the presidential elections. Additionally, since 2016, both parties have secured control of Parliament by winning all 275 parliamentary seats,” the political scientist added.

Core support bases

Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Director and Head of Global Research Group, Global InfoAnalytics, said the smaller parties would only have an impact if they are able to draw from the core support bases of both the NDC and the NPP.

"For Alan Kyerematen, Nana Kwame Bediako and the rest of the (minority) candidates to have a serious impact on the duopoly in Ghana, they need to draw their support across all party affiliations in order to win or take the race into a run-off," Mr Dankwah told the Daily Graphic.

He added, however, that if they were able to draw votes from the NDC and floating voters, they would likely force the December polls into a run-off. Mr Dankwah, whose organisation has run a string of polls towards the 2024 elections, said Mr Kyerematen and Nana Bediako were already drawing votes from the NPP especially.

"For the smaller parties to drag the race into a run-off, they need to do well among floating voters and NDC sympathisers," he said.

This, he said, was because analysis of data from the polling exercise by Global InfoAnalytics "also shows Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako doing better than expected in two of the regions that traditionally vote for the governing NPP, namely the Ashanti and Eastern regions".

"Data suggest that voters who are sympathetic to the NDC are not breaking ranks to vote for other candidates. In the July 2024 poll, 95 per cent of voters who are NDC sympathisers intend to vote for John Mahama, with only three per cent intending to voting for Dr Bawumia, one per cent for Mr Kyerematen, and another one per cent for Nana Bediako.

"However, among those who are NPP sympathisers, 88 per cent (say they) will vote for Dr Bawumia, eight per cent (say they) will vote for John Mahama, while two per cent (say they) will vote for Mr Kyerematen, and a further two per cent (say they) will vote for Nana Bediako," Mr Dankwah explained.

Alan’s case

An Emeritus Professor of Politics at the London Metropolitan University in UK, Prof. Jeffrey Haynes, however, avers that only Mr Kyerematen can make an impact by plucking votes off the numbers of the NPP.

"Alan is likely to make a dent in the NPP vote, especially in Ashanti, which will help the NDC," he said in his assessment of the chances of the minority parties in the 2024 elections.

The emeritus professor added that: "Cheddar will do poorly; he's young, no track record, and seems to be out for himself. "I can't see either PNC or CPP getting much more than a few votes. So overall, the minor parties, with the exception of Alan, are most unlikely to dent the hegemony of NPP/NDC," Prof. Haynes stressed.