Time for Guardiola to walk away from struggling Man City

Every week, Manchester City seem to be hitting their lowest point. The abyss sinks deeper, the nadir is renewed and the more impossible it looks to reverse the decline.

The Cityzens are in free-fall, even in spite of Pep Guardiola signing a new contract midway through their ongoing run of one win in 11 games.

Rodri's ACL injury sustained in September triggered a crisis which isn't any closer to ending. Sunday's sudden defeat to Manchester United was all the confirmation the world needed of that.

With each defeat and each dropped point, you wonder just a little bit more if the Catalan coach regrets his decision to renew that deal.

In reality, it might not even matter. There's no guarantee over how long Guardiola will remain at the Etihad Stadium, and there's a compelling case that he should indeed walk away.

Frequent public meltdowns

Guardiola is a rather emotional and occasionally over-the-top character at the best of times. At the worst of them, he's bordered on ballistic and (hopefully) simply unserious.

He had to issue a public apology after insinuating he was self-harming, such was the stress of watching City blow a three-goal lead late on against Feyenoord in a Champions League encounter.

Speaking to former team-mate Luca Toni about this issue, he said: "The nails, yes, I did them on my nose. I am a person who is nervous sometimes. I have bad days, I mess up a lot, and rudeness makes me nervous. Do I lose my mind sometimes? Yes. I sleep badly and I don't digest food well. I always have to eat light. Only soup in the evening."

His raspy exasperation rose to the fore again after Sunday's 2-1 defeat at home to Manchester United. "I knew it would be a tough season at the beginning but I didn't think it would be this hard.

I am the boss. I am the manager. I have to find a solution. I am not good enough, it is simple at that. I am not doing well, that is the truth."
Guardiola's enthusiasm for the game has certainly helped elevate him as one of football's best-ever managers. It's fine to watch in awe when it's going well, but it's of concern when not.

Right now, his distress is palpable, seeping into every nook and cranny of the club.

An old joke in England decreed that Liverpool fans would whine on about the past and proclaim that next year would be 'their year'.

It's why it was so much more ironic that Guardiola tried to taunt the Anfield faithful with a similar gesture after losing 2-0 last month.

As the Merseysiders chanted that Guardiola would be sacked in the morning, he stuck up six fingers to denote how many Premier League titles he had won, reminiscent of Jose Mourinho sticking up three at the end of a press conference after his Manchester United were beaten 3-0 by Tottenham in August 2018.

The Mourinho metaphor even extends to a new feud between the two legendary managers. 'The Special One' and Guardiola have gone back and forth over City's 115 alleged breaches of financial rules casting a cloud over the Catalan's legacy. It shouldn't have been worth his time to retort, particularly now with such a challenge ahead.

City winning four Premier League titles in a row — the first team to complete such a feat —was built on Guardiola's nous and a core group of key players who had interchangeable figures around them. By the club's lofty standards, though, their squad turnover always appeared a concern waiting to arise.

Their summer addition of Savinho from City Football Group-owned Troyes has not yet paid dividends despite some early promise, while the emotional decision to bring back Ilkay Gundogan sent them back to the past.

In 2023, they splashed out over £230m ($290m) on Mateo Kovacic, Josko Gvardiol, Jeremy Doku, Matheus Nunes and Claudio Echeverri. Some of those names have had their moments, but none have been a unanimous and undisputed success to this point.

City's only successful major purchases of the post-lockdown era have been Erling Haaland and Julian Alvarez, the latter of whom forced his way out to Atletico Madrid a few months ago.

Manuel Akanji and Stefan Ortega at a combined £15m ($19m) have proved incredibly useful too, but the hit-rate has been far too low to sustain success into a new era without ripping up the tree straight from the root.

Factor in their prior youth prospects like Cole Palmer, Romeo Lavia, Jeremie Frimpong and Pedro Porro are all thriving away from the Etihad Stadium and you start to question the work of outgoing director of football Txiki Begiristain. Guardiola's work building the collective has been far more invaluable to City.

Old guard have outstayed their welcome

City's lack of ruthlessness cutting the cord with their current crop has also played a significant role in their downfall.

Once reliable stalwarts like Kyle Walker have become error-prone liabilities who are under no threat. Bernardo Silva, who has wanted out several times in recent years, hasn't been able to pick the lock.

Ederson was temporarily dropped and then surprisingly reinstated before dropping further clangers. Even national heartthrob Jack Grealish, at the measly price of £100m, has flattered to deceive and is now without a club goal in 45 games.

They will all go down as City legends, but the cracks were beginning to appear as early as two seasons ago that this group was on the decline.

It's fair to have ignored the warning given how much success they've brought, though they can have few complaints at how it has all fallen apart all the same.

It's very easy to point the finger of blame when a team's world is crumbling - even Haaland, Phil Foden and a largely unfit Kevin De Bruyne are wildly underperforming. In that sense, the culprit should be the manager. They pick the XI, they set the formation, they decide the approach, they set the tone.

A 'new manager bounce' comes about because a side is at their lowest ebb and the addition of a fresh voice can help to wind down tension and restore confidence. Losing control of the dressing room happens to most managers at some point and should not be considered a weakness.

Guardiola has absorbed the blame and is happy to continue doing so, admitting he could even face the sack if results do not improve soon.

In all likelihood, City will not pull such a trigger, though the fact he's talking in such terms is a damning indictment of how far they've fallen.

Defiance he won't leave

In that same breath discussing any future firing, Guardiola insisted he would not stand down from the challenge, that he needs to be the one who gets City out of this rut and back to contention.

"I would regret leaving now," he recently said. "I could not sleep, even worse than now. Leaving the situation, impossible. They could sack me.

That can happen. But leaving now? No option. If the board is not happy with me, they can do it. But leaving now in this position, no chance.

"When I feel it is time to leave, I will leave. What we have done is what we have done. The satisfaction to do it is done. I don’t have any target to make my life or my time here completely different. Impossible."

That's who Guardiola is, after all, the ultimate competitor, the ultimate champion. It is not like him to shy away from a challenge, particularly now at a club whose modern image he has carved out with privileged freedom.

This, however, is a challenge like no other Guardiola has faced. Bar his first season with City, he has spent every year of his managerial career fighting for the title. He is not used to top-four battles or rebuilding, rather sprinting ahead and withstanding the advances of the would-be winners coming for the crown.

Into his ninth season at the Etihad Stadium, it was bound to happen sooner or later that Guardiola would lose his vice-grip on the Premier League, that a manager of his pedigree would finally run into adversity beyond not finishing as a runner-up.

The cleanup job could prove gruesome, especially if City are found guilty in their case against the Premier League.

The upcoming rebuild would be daunting for any manager, let alone one who has known only of unbound success in nearly a decade of service.

The length of Guardiola's contract might not even matter. As Jurgen Klopp proved back in January, managers with this much goodwill ultimately are the master of their own fate.

Klopp managed to get Liverpool back on track before standing aside, enjoying the fruits of a farewell tour which yielded one last Carabao Cup.

He ought to have left with a couple more pots, but he did re-stabilise the foundations for Arne Slot's success so far this season.

City, on this current trajectory, are not treading down the Reds' path of continuity after a legend leaves, more so that of Manchester United post-Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsenal without Arsene Wenger.

Should Guardiola actually manage to get his side back on track, it would be a mighty impressive feat well worthy of someone likely to go down as the greatest manager of all time. Can you really envisage that happening right now, though?