Election 2024: Who takes Central Region?

The Central Region, like Greater Accra, is one of the most sought-after electoral prizes for the Jubilee House in this year’s election due to its inconsistent voting pattern.

The region, seen by many as a key unpredictable die for its unclear party loyalty, has historically swung between the two major political parties, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

With over 1.75 million registered voters in 3,637 polling stations, analysts say the region once again holds one of the golden keys to who wins this year’s presidential poll, as it had done in the past.

Battleground constituencies

The key deciding constituencies that are typically classified as swing are Abura-Asebu-Kwamankese, Asikuma-Odoben-Brakwa, Awutu Senya West, Cape Coast North, Gomoa Central, Gomoa East, Komenda Edina Eguafo Abirem (KEEA), Mfantseman, Twifo-Atti Morkwa, Upper Denkyira West and Awutu Senya East.

In this year’s election, the constituency to watch out for is Gomoa East, which is currently held by the NDC’s Paitoo De-Graft Desmond, who flipped it with 36,637 votes or 49.46 per cent from his closest rival, Kojo Asemanya of the NPP who polled 35,873, representing 48.42 per cent.

The victory margin of 764 makes the constituency a dicey one for the incumbent, especially when the NPP has won the constituency three times in 2000, 2004 and 2016, and the NDC won four times.

The Abura Asebu Kwamankese seat, currently held by the NPP’s Elvis Morris Donkoh, is also up for grabs because of the slim margin of victory between the incumbent, who polled 25,048, and his main challenger, Felix Ofosu Kwakye of the NDC, who gained 24,872, losing by 176 votes.

The NDC has won the constituency four times in previous elections. The constituency voted for the Umbrella in 1996, 2000, 2008 and 2012.

The Assin South seat, which is occupied by a Deputy Minister of Education, John Ntim Fordjour, will also be fiercely contested.

He won with 17,121 votes, representing 39.25 per cent, to beat the NDC’s Kofi Dantse who polled 15,801 or 36.22 per cent. The 1,320 margin of victory for the incumbent makes the constituency,a must-watch. The NDC won the constituency only in 1996.

The Upper Denkyira West Constituency, held by the NDC’s Daniel Ohene Darko, has since 2004 been a safe seat for the NPP until 2020 when the Umbrella flipped it. The incumbent won with 18,446 representing 50.72 per cent to beat the NPP’s Samuel Nsowah Djan, who garnered 17,925 ballots, representing 49.28 per cent.

Keen contests

The Cape Coast North has NPP’s Horace Ewusi giving Kwamena Mintah Nyarkoh a run for his money.

Ekow Ewusi has done extensive campaigning to ensure that the seat can be won by anybody.

Mfantseman is also being keenly contested but the NPP's Ophelia Hayford Mensah is likely to be retained by constituents. 

Cape Coast South, which now has Perry Mensah who was an NPP man now contesting the seat as an independent candidate, would likely impact the NPP's fortune and let the NDC's Kweku Ricketts Hagan slide through for another win.

The NPP’s Cynthia Morrison's decision to contest as independent in the Agona West would also impact the fortunes of the NPP.

The KEEA seat which could be described as traditionally NDC is also likely to be retained by the NDC's Samuel Atta Mills even though Percival Quaicoe may close the margin.

Assin North, if the by-election is anything to go by, would be retained by the NDC's James Gyakye Quayson.

Tilting the results

The NDC may need to win some of the 10 seats held by the NPP in order to consolidate its hold of the region and ultimately win the ticket to the Jubilee House, while the NPP will also need to reclaim more of the seats it lost in the 2020 elections in order to sustain its re-election bid and bolster its chances for the Jubilee House.

This means that the Central Region has 60 per cent of its constituencies as swing, making it a key battleground for the two parties, going into the 2024 elections which take place in two weeks.

It is, however, unclear if the NDC’s choice of Professor Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, who is a native of the region, will do any trick for the party in the elections.

The Central Region is known for its diverse voter population due to the number of educational institutions located there which may be a factor that underlies its unyielding stance.

NPP lost seats

Interestingly, in the 2020 elections, although Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of the NPP won the region by polling 602,111, representing 52.71 per cent to beat his closest challenger, John Dramani Mahama of the NDC who secured 524,038 ballots or 45.87 per cent, the incumbent party suffered several parliamentary casualties, losing nine seats to the NDC.

So, the NDC currently hold 13 seats, up from the four seats it held in 2016. This gives the NDC majority seats from the Central Region. This means the NDC jumped in parliamentary numbers in the region from four in 2016 to 13 in 2020.

The seats are Asikuma Odoben Brakwa, which had Emmanuel Adjei Domson as its Member of Parliament (MP); the Assin North seat that was contested by Abena Durowaa Mensah was also lost to the NDC; the Deputy Minister of Communications, George Nenyi Kojo Andah of Awutu Senya lost his seat as well; the Deputy Minister of Works and Housing, Barbara Asher Ayisi, was also a casualty; the MP for Ekumfi, Francis Kingsley A. Cudjoe, also lost the bid to retain his seat; Gomoa West’s Alexander K. K. Abban was not successful with his ambition, and Samuel Nsowah-Djan of Upper Denkyira West also lost his re-election bid.

Discounting results from the 1992 elections because the NPP largely relinquished the parliamentary polls, the party won the region with 49.7 per cent in the 2000 presidential election, won it again in 2004 with 58.8 per cent and sealed it with 53.2 per cent in 2016 to claim victory in those elections.

The NDC, on the other hand, won the region in 1996 with 55.2 per cent, and after two unsuccessful attempts at the Presidency, it was third-time lucky to win the region in 2008 with 50.6 per cent of the valid votes cast.

The party also clinched victory in the 2012 polls by winning the region with 52.1 per cent.

For many, the Central Region has the same characteristics of middle-class workers who, like the Greater Accra Region, analyse and evaluate issues before voting.

Big impact

The middle-class phenomenon explains why the Central Region is slightly less competitive than Greater Accra, and yet has a larger share of its constituencies classified as swing.

Interestingly, the region has a smaller voter population, compared to the Greater Accra or Ashanti regions, but due to its role as a swing region, it ends up having a big stake in the final outcome of elections.

The seven constituencies that largely lean towards the NPP are Agona West, Assin Central, Assin North, Assin South, Effutu, Heman Lower Denkyira and Upper Denkyira East.
Constituencies such as Ajumako-Enyan-Essiam, Agona East and Cape Coast South also tilt towards the NDC in most contests.

Average votes

Indeed, the NPP’s average votes in the region over the years have been 463,415, representing 49.66 per cent.

The NDC’s performance, on the other hand, has averaged 445,424, representing 47.73 per cent.

Surely, both parties will seek to improve on these figures in the 2024 elections.