IMF praises Ghana’s economic recovery but warns over energy and debt risks

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced that Ghana’s economic recovery programme under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) has produced “substantial stabilisation gains”, citing sharp declines in inflation, improved confidence in the cedi, stronger reserves and significant progress in debt sustainability.

At the end of a mission to Accra, IMF staff in a statement also confirmed that they had reached a staff-level agreement with the Government of Ghana on the sixth and final review of the ECF arrangement, alongside a request for a new 36-month non-financing Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) to support reforms beyond the current bailout programme.

The IMF mission, led by Mr Ruben Atoyan, visited Ghana between April 29 and May 15, 2026, for the country’s Article IV consultation and discussions on the future direction of economic reforms after the conclusion of the current support programme.

In a statement issued at the end of the mission, the IMF said Ghana’s programme had exceeded expectations in several areas, with economic growth in 2025 outperforming projections due to broad-based activity and historically high gold export receipts.

“Inflation has declined rapidly, international reserves have been rebuilt, and confidence in the cedi has improved,” the IMF stated.

It added that fiscal performance had strengthened significantly, with Ghana recording a primary surplus above programme targets in 2025, while the public debt ratio also declined sharply.

The Fund noted that Ghana had made major progress in restructuring both domestic and external debt, including agreements with about half of its bilateral creditors under the G20 Common Framework.

According to the IMF, the successful return of Ghana to the domestic Treasury bond market earlier this year reflected renewed investor confidence in the economy.

Despite the gains, the IMF cautioned that global economic uncertainty and domestic fiscal risks continued to pose threats to the country’s recovery efforts.

The Fund warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East could indirectly affect Ghana through rising energy, food and fertiliser prices, stressing the need for prudent policies and stronger economic buffers.

It also identified risks associated with state-owned enterprises and quasi-fiscal activities as key concerns under the next phase of reforms.

The proposed PCI programme, which will not involve direct financing, is expected to focus on maintaining fiscal discipline, safeguarding debt sustainability, improving governance and transparency, strengthening the financial sector and supporting inclusive economic growth.

“As macroeconomic stability takes hold, IMF engagement is pivoting from crisis stabilization to consolidation,” the statement said.

The IMF explained that recent improvements in Ghana’s debt outlook had created “carefully calibrated fiscal space” that could allow the government to expand development spending, support youth employment and strengthen social interventions while remaining on course to achieve its debt reduction targets.

However, the Fund stressed that sustaining these gains would depend heavily on stronger public financial management reforms and improved oversight of state institutions.

Particular attention was given to the energy and cocoa sectors, which the IMF described as critical to protecting public finances.

In the energy sector, the Fund urged the government to tackle operational inefficiencies and losses at the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG), including the completion of private sector participation in electricity distribution, improved revenue collection and lower generation costs.

On the cocoa sector, the IMF said deeper structural reforms were needed to improve efficiency and ensure the long-term financial sustainability of the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD).

The IMF also raised concerns about the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme operated by the Bank of Ghana, warning that losses linked to the programme highlighted the need to reduce quasi-fiscal activities and strengthen transparency around central bank operations.

The Fund further called for stronger anti-corruption reforms, including public disclosure of standardised asset declarations, to improve governance and boost investor confidence.

The IMF commended Ghanaian authorities for their engagement during the discussions and praised the resilience of the Ghanaian people throughout the economic adjustment process.

“Avoiding past policy slippages, including recurring cycles of fiscal imbalances, rising debt, weak buffers, and reform reversals, will be critical to safeguarding the hard-earned success,” the Fund stated.

The staff-level agreement is expected to be presented to the IMF Executive Board for formal consideration after approval by IMF management.