Road to Election 2024: Of prophecies, polls, predictions - Do these matter in elections?

In the more advanced societies, science forms the basis for predictions and projections, including possible elections outcomes.

In Ghana, a mix of prophecies, outright superstition, mere hope and other bizarre factors feature prominently in such circumstances.

Recent occurrences on the political front as the country nears the December 7 presidential and parliamentary elections have come to emphasise the importance of these factors, at least, relative to the fortunes of the political parties.

The campaign themes developed from the placement of the presidential candidates on the ballot paper as decided by the balloting process have largely emphasised the place of superstition in the anticipated outcome of the December polls.

For instance, “eight” has become almost a taboo word in the circles of the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) ever since the main opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) took No. 8 on the ballot paper.

The NPP had all along touted “Breaking the 8” as its chief object in the December polls, seeking to become the first party in the Fourth Republican dispensation to govern beyond a two-term mandate at a stretch.

Instead, the party is first on the ballot paper as it was in the 2020 elections, requiring a new messaging that projects the supposed advantage with the placement among a list of 13 candidates.

Beyond the spiritual or superstitious interpretations assigned to the balloting outcome, various polls from the scientific perspective have either calmed or agitated the nerves of the key players and their followers.

International economics ratings and advisory body, Fitch Solutions, and  polling agency, Global InfoAnalytics, have predicted victory for the NDC in the December 7 polls, while separate similar exercises by two researchers, Prof. Smart Sarpong of the Kumasi Technical University and Dr Isaac Owusu-Mensah, Director of Research of the Office of the President, suggested a win for the incumbent NPP and a likely run-off respectively.

Each of the polls has been treated with contempt by those it did not favour, in similar ways that “prophecies” have been despised by those they did not impact positively.

As part of the 2024 electioneering,  Dr Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP, John Dramani Mahama of the NDC and Independent candidate Alan Kyerematen are among the prominent figures who have courted the churches, mosques and sometimes shrines for both votes and their blessings.

Opponents of Dr Bawumia have criticised him for receiving prayers at a shrine in September this year, while social media was awash with two videos of Rev. Isaac Owusu Bempah of Glorious Chapel prophesying victory for Dr Bawumia earlier this year and for Mr Mahama last Tuesday, October 1, 2024.

Opinions

But both academics and an astute religious figure say all of these could be abused to sway voter populations.

The clergy saying prayers for John Dramani Mahama

A former General Secretary of the Christian Council and Senior Lecturer at the Department of Religious Studies of the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Rev Dr Kwabena Opuni-Frimpong, said “public opinions are shaped by influential media, individuals, and organisations, including polls, prophecies, and predictions”.

He, however, stressed that “the challenge is the intellectual sincerity, objectivity, and non-partisanship of the sponsors of such predictions. Voters must have their own benchmarks in choosing their preferred candidates during elections without restrictions from polls, predictions, and prophecies”.

“Some electoral polls, predictions and prophecies can be misleading and abused,” Rev. Dr Opuni-Frimpong, who is also a member of the non-denominational faith-based organisation, Alliance for Christian Advocacy Africa, added.

Skepitical orientation

Emeritus Professor of Politics, London Metropolitan University, UK, Prof. Jeffery Haynes, sayts in Ghana, systematic polling remained a relatively new phenomenon, and many Ghanaians are sceptical about their capacity to accurately predict electoral results.

Alan Kyerematen (seated) being prayed for by the clergy

“I suspect that many pay no attention to the opinion polls and will vote because of how they think the incumbent government has performed in relation to bread-and-butter issues: the economy, jobs, price inflation, cost of living, the natural environment, including galamsey, and security.

Prof. Haynes added that as the race to attract votes heats up, “religious prophets are in full flow, pronouncing on who, they claim, will win the presidential election”.

He, however, laments that there were so many predictions from so many prophets, “all claiming to come direct from God, that the ‘average’ voter would, I suspect, be confused as to what God’s real thoughts are”. 

Influences

Head of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, whose polls have raise eyebrows in the country lately, said “prophesies and predictions by pastors may have some influence among the followers of such prophets. However, nationally, these voters are not significant”.

He said voters usually voted based on their personal feelings and circumstances, and especially with regard to the economy and living standards.

“It is also worth noting that in a country where higher proportion of voters are not educated, these prophesies may have material impact. Ghana has a much educated voter population, according to our polls. Only 16 per cent of voters have no formal education.

“Generally, the prophesies are driven by the Pentecostal and charismatic churches, which together constitute about 38 per cent of Christians in our latest poll. So, 38 per cent of the 16 per cent, that is roughly six per cent. This is unlikely to affect the outcome of the elections materially,” he stressed.

Voter perceptions

A Political Science lecturer of the University of Education, Winneba, Gilbert Arhinful Aidoo, suggested that polls, prophecies, and predictions could influence voter choices in various ways, especially in a politically charged environment like Ghana’s December 7 elections.

“Each of these factors has a distinct impact on the electorate’s perceptions and behaviour,” he told the Daily Graphic.

“Polls can influence Ghana's December 7 elections by shaping voter perceptions, campaign strategies, media coverage, and voter turnout. Polls showing a candidate in the lead may cause undecided voters to support the frontrunner, while trailing candidates' supporters might feel discouraged, reducing turnout,” he said.

Political parties, Mr Aidoo stressed, also used poll results to refine their strategies, reallocating resources to areas where they were underperforming, while media coverage tended to focus on poll leaders, further boosting their visibility, which created a feedback loop that could make it difficult for trailing candidates to catch up.

“Additionally, polls can generate a ‘bandwagon effect’ for leading candidates or motivate higher turnout in close races. However, voters can still be swayed by last-minute factors, such as debates or key issues,” he added.

Religious bodies

In the specific case of the December 7 elections, he said “prophecies from charismatic and Pentecostal religious leaders significantly shape both voter behaviour and the political landscape”.

“These prophecies, viewed by many as divine guidance, can enhance a candidate's appeal if favourable, or create doubts if negative. Politicians often respond by aligning with influential religious figures or criticising the role of prophecies in politics. The media and social platforms amplify these predictions, making them central to election discussions.

“However, contradictory prophecies can create confusion, and while they add a spiritual dimension to elections, their true impact depends on how much credibility voters assign to them over practical political considerations,” Mr Aidoo insisted.

“Additionally, predicting Ghana’s December 7, 2024 election is challenging due to various factors such as polling inaccuracies, fluctuating voter turnout, and regional dynamics.

While polls offer insights, they often suffer from biases and errors. Turnout, which varies across urban and rural areas, significantly influences outcomes, as do regional party strongholds, with swing areas like Greater Accra being harder to predict.

“Minor parties, though unlikely to win, can affect tight races. Additionally, economic issues and unpredictable events like crises can shift voter sentiment unexpectedly, making election forecasts uncertain despite analytical tools,” he said.

He added that while polls, prophecies, and predictions could influence the narrative surrounding Ghana’s December 7 elections, their direct impact on the outcome was limited.

“Polls can shape public opinion and voter enthusiasm, but they are often subject to inaccuracies due to sampling errors or last-minute voter shifts. Similarly, prophecies, though significant in certain religious and cultural circles, may inspire or deter voters emotionally, but don't guarantee outcomes,” he said.

“Ultimately, as former US President, Dwight D. Eisenhower, once said, ‘I never believe in polls, they’re for strippers and cross-country skiers’.

Predictions, whether from analysts or religious figures, can set expectations, but do not replace the actual will of the voters. In the end, the results will depend on turnout, key issues, and campaign strategies, regardless of external forecasts,” Mr Aidoo stated.