The macroeconomic turnaround: Stability, caution amid progress

The Daily Graphic applauds Ghana's remarkable strides in stabilising its exchange rate and fostering a more predictable foreign exchange market environment, marking a welcome departure from the turbulence of uncontrolled depreciation and market anxiety that plagued the nation in recent years. 

It is clear that the progress so far made seems more than just a fluke; it is backed by some solid economic fundamentals and policy efforts.

Speaking at the recent 2025 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director for Africa, Abebe Aemro Selassie, underscored Ghana's progress, attributing the cedi's recent appreciation to improving economic fundamentals – a narrative resonating with optimism yet tempered by prudent caution.

Mr Selassie emphasised the criticality of balance — while Ghana's exchange rate stability reflects restored confidence and decelerating inflation, policymakers must vigilantly navigate the tightrope between price stability and external competitiveness.

"An excessively appreciated exchange rate can undermine export competitiveness," he cautioned, spotlighting the multifaceted nature of economic management.

Competitiveness hinges on myriad factors beyond currency valuation alone, but undue foreign exchange market interference risks injecting disruptive volatility into the country’s relatively shallow capital and foreign exchange markets.

Recall the fraught landscape of yesteryears — the economy grappled with daunting depreciation pressures intertwined with unresolved debt challenges.

Contrast this with today's encouraging tableau — inflation plummeting to 9.4 per cent in September 2025 (its first single-digit mark in four years), down dramatically from 54 per cent in December 2022.

Food inflation dipped to 11 per cent, non-food inflation eased to 8.2 per cent, a testament to concerted monetary policy and fiscal consolidation.

Ghana Statistical Service data reveal robust 6.3 per cent economic expansion in the second quarter of 2025, with non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) growth hitting 7.8 per cent – propelled by services and agriculture.

The Composite Index of Economic Activity rose 6.1 per cent in July, signalling sustained domestic demand vigour. 

Externally, Ghana boasts a $6.2 billion trade surplus (Jan-Aug 2025) and international reserves swelling to $10.7 billion – covering 4.5 months of imports.

The cedi’s 21 per cent year-to-date appreciation cements its global standing as a top performer.

Mr Selassie lauded Ghana’s policy framework credibility, noting the economy’s rightward trajectory.

Yet his words carry calibrated wisdom: in shallow markets such as Ghana’s, striking a balance is paramount – excessive interference spawns problems; identifying and minimising volatility ‘froth’ is key. 

The Trades Union Congress (TUC) rightly flags risks of exchange rate swings hurting exports/businesses.

Sustainability queries linger – Can Ghana maintain this stability amid import pressures and global headwinds?

Prudent debt management, dovetailing with the IMF programme, which ends in 2026, remains very pivotal.

We commend the government and the Bank of Ghana for their commitment to nurturing this stability oasis.

Macroeconomic management demands perpetual vigilance – balancing growth, inflation and competitiveness is not episodic but perpetual.

Credibility earned via sound policies must translate into tangible benefits for Ghanaians – job creation, poverty reduction, and inclusive growth.

Our country’s turnaround instils hope; its policy lessons merit regional attention.

With inflation single-digit, reserves bolstered, and growth humming, the nation readies itself for ‘life beyond’ its current IMF programme.

Mr Selassie’s counsel crystallises the path: calibrated policies safeguarding stability while nurturing competitiveness.

The Daily Graphic trusts our policymakers will stride this nuanced path steadfastly – the country’s economic resurgence beckons broader prosperity dividends.

Thankfully, we see an alignment of monetary policy and fiscal policy, which really bodes well for the economic stabilisation efforts.

The implication of this is that the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Ghana are singing from the same hymn sheet, which should be the case at all times.

As the country navigates post-programme dynamics, sustaining reform momentum appears non-negotiable.

International confidence is palpable; domestic stakeholders expect tangible socio-economic payoffs.

With prudent stewardship, Ghana’s macroeconomic oasis can morph into enduring prosperity – a beacon for Africa’s developmental aspirations.  

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