Election 2024 — Lessons from the 2016 Election
In reading the final observation report of the 2020 elections by the Coalition of Domestic Election Observers (CODEO), it noted several electoral incidents (254 in total) of concern.
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Of the incidents observed, the top five were– a) intimidation or harassment; b) violation of COVID-19 health and safety protocols; c) violence; d) unauthorised persons at polling stations and e) biometric verification device not functioning properly.
As another election approaches, the question on my mind is the extent to which these incidents affect how citizens feel about an essential part of the country’s democracy – election architecture.
In Afrobarometer Round 8 (2019), the survey asked Ghanaians about their perception of the occurrence of certain electoral incidents with the 2016 election as the frame of reference. This op-ed piece a) summarises the perceptions of Ghanaians as captured by the survey; and b) examines the consequences for the country’s election architecture.
Perceived occurrence of electoral incidents
The survey asked respondents about nine election-related incidents. Here is a summary of the responses.
1. Fifty-one per cent of respondents said the media “often/always” provided fair coverage of all candidates.
2. Four per cent of respondents said a candidate or someone from a political party “several times/often” offered food, a gift or money in return for votes.
3. Twenty-nine per cent of respondents said people’s votes were “a few times/often” not accurately counted or not fairly reflected in the results.
4. Twenty-three per cent of respondents said “a few times/often” people voted more than once.
5. Eighteen per cent of respondents said powerful people, “somewhat likely/very likely,” can find out how you voted, even though there is supposed to be a secret ballot.
6. Fifteen per cent of respondents said they feared “somewhat/a lot” becoming a victim of political intimidation or violence.
7. Fifteen per cent of respondents said they “witnessed” police or soldiers, rather than election officials, assisting some people to cast their ballot.
8. Seven per cent of respondents said they “witnessed” someone from the security forces or a political party trying to intimidate voters.
9. Sixty-seven per cent of respondents said results announced by the Electoral Commission “completely accurately” reflected the actual results as counted.
10. On the overall confidence in the outcome of the election, 66 per cent rated the election as “completely free and fair.”
The key point from the summarised responses is this. The range of percentages across the electoral incidents (Points 2-8 especially) is such that it may be tempting to view them as not significant enough to have any impact. However, any perceptions of compromises to the election’s architecture by even the slightest number of Ghanaians can potentially erode confidence in it.
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In addition, while seven out of ten (67 per cent) Ghanaians, a decent number, felt the election results announced were completely accurate, it is concerning that three out of ten felt otherwise. Another point of concern.
The consequences for the country’s election architecture
The electoral incidents described in the previous sections can be rephrased as follows – a) media treatment of candidates; b) voter inducements; c) instances of multiple voting; d) accurate counting of votes; e) secrecy of ballot; f) fear of intimidation; g) security services interference; h) voter intimidation by security services and i) accuracy of results announced.
I examined the impact of these incidents on four dimensions of the country’s election architecture – a) overall rating of the election as free and fair; b) trust in the election management body; c) support for using elections to choose leaders and d) trust in the security services (police and army).
The results of the statistical analysis can be summed as follows.
1. All the above electoral incidents affect how citizens rate the freeness and fairness of elections. The top three incidents with the strongest effects are – a) accuracy of results announced; b) accurate counting of votes and c) multiple voting.
2. Seven electoral incidents (multiple voting, accurate counting of votes, secrecy of ballot, fear of intimidation, security services interference, security services intimidation and accuracy of results announced) affect citizens’ support for using elections to choose leaders. The incidents with the strongest effects are – a) accuracy of results announced; b) voter intimidation by security forces and c) fear of intimidation.
3. Five electoral incidents (multiple voting, accurate counting of votes, secrecy of ballot, fear of intimidation, security services interference and accuracy of results announced) affect trust in the Electoral Commission. The incidents with the strongest effects are– a) accuracy of results announced; b) multiple voting and c) fear of intimidation.
4. Two incidents – a) accuracy of results announced and b) fear of intimidation does affect trust in the security services.
Election management body
As we head into the December election, all stakeholders, especially the election management body and security forces must work collaboratively to ensure that these perceived incidents do not occur on a scale that comprises the integrity of the election.
The writer is the Project Director, Democracy Project