Election 2024: The gender vote

The 2024 election is several months away. How will Ghanaians vote? The surest way to find out will be when the Electoral Commissioner certifies, announces the results and declares a winner.

This is to say that no one knows with certainty what the reaction of the voter will be. Between now and that day, though, all we have are the signals voters send by way of the answers they provide to questions in various surveys and polls.

Turning to data from Round 9 of the Afrobarometer survey conducted in 2022, here are some initial signals. The survey asked Ghanaians “If [presidential elections] were held tomorrow, which [candidate’s party] would you vote for?” A few important points to note. First the caveats – a) this question was asked in 2022, meaning voters responses may have changed or not since then; and b) voting intentions do not always translate into actual action.

Second, in addition to the option of selecting a specific political party in answering, respondents could also select don’t know, would not vote, or were allowed to refuse to answer. The analysis in this piece counts those who indicated voting for a specific party plus those who chose “don’t know”. I refer to the latter as undecideds.

Third, the goal here is a demographic analysis of voting intentions focusing specifically on gender. Lastly, brace yourself for a lot of numbers.

Who will vote for which party?

Gender & Geographic Location

Across both genders, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) edges out the New Patriotic Party (NPP). Among men, the margin is 52 per cent to 36 per cent whiles among women it is 47 per cent to 39 per cent. Among men in the urban areas, the margin is NDC (46 per cent) to NPP (40 per cent). Among women in the rural areas, the margin is NDC (44 per cent), NPP (41per cent). Among men in the rural areas the margin is NDC (58 per cent) to NPP (32 per cent). Among women in the rural areas, the margin is NDC (52 per cent) to NPP (35 per cent).

Gender and Educational Attainment

Among men with no formal education, the margin is NDC (52 per cent) to NPP (40 per cent). Among women with no formal education, the margin is NDC (48 per cent) to NPP (37 per cent). Among men with a primary education the margin is NDC (52 per cent) to NPP (42 per cent). Among women with a primary education, the margin is NDC (48 per cent) to NPP (38 per cent). Among men with a secondary education, the margin is NDC (52 per cent) to NPP (34 per cent). Among women with a secondary education the margin is NDC (48 per cent) to NPP (37 per cent). Among men with a post-secondary education, the margin is NDC (52 per cent) to NPP (32 per cent). Among women with a post-secondary education, the margin is NDC (40 per cent) to NPP (50 per cent).

Gender and Age

Among men aged between 18-24, the margin is NDC (54 per cent) to NPP (36 per cent). Among women, the margin is NDC (52 per cent) to NPP (37 per cent). Among men aged between 25-34, the margin is NDC (61 per cent) to NPP (28 per cent).

Among women, the margin is NDC (50 per cent) to NPP (37 per cent). Among men aged between 35-44, the margin is NDC (54 per cent) to NPP (33 per cent). Among women, the margin is NDC (49 per cent) to NPP (31 per cent).

Among men aged between 45-54, the margin is NDC (48 per cent) to NPP (40 per cent). Among women, the margin is NDC (32 per cent) to NPP (56%). Among men aged 55 and above, the margin is NDC (37 per cent) to NPP (49 per cent). Among women, the margin is NDC (46 per cent) to NPP (40 per cent).

Gender and Religion

Among men who described themselves as Christians, the margin is NDC (49 percent) to NPP (39 per cent). Among women, the margin is NDC (43 per cent) to NPP (44 per cent). Among men who described themselves as Muslim, the margin is NDC (65 per cent) to NPP (24 per cent). Among women, the margin is NDC (63 per cent) to NPP (20 per cent).

Gender and the Regions

Among men, the NDC edges out the NPP in the following regions – Western North, Central, Greater Accra, Volta, Oti, Eastern, Ahafo, Bono East, Northern, North East, Upper East, Savannah, and Upper West. The NPP edges out the NDC in Western, Ashanti, and Bono.

Among women, the NDC edges out the NPP in the following regions – Western, Western North, Greater Accra, Volta, Oti, Eastern, Ahafo, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Northeast, Upper East, and Upper West. The NPP edges out the NDC in Central, Ashanti and Bono.

What will actually happen?

One can only hazard a guess as to what will happen during the 2024 election. And as previously mentioned, the election is still 23 months away, which leaves plenty of room for time and events to shape the dynamics of the race. In addition, there are more election related surveys and polls that will be conducted as time goes by, which will give us more insights into the thinking of Ghanaians as we approach the period. However, the early signals on the gender vote shows that the winds are blowing in the direction of the NDC.