Russian-Ukraine war, global crisis

Russian-Ukraine war, global crisis

Russia massed more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine's borders over the last few months but denied plans to invade. It, however, said it could take unspecified military action if demands were not met, including barring Ukraine from ever joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The United States and its allies warn that any invasion would trigger tough sanctions.

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But however, on February 24, Russia launched a devastating attack on Ukraine, a European democracy of 44 million people by air, land and sea while bombing city centres and closing in on the capital, Kyiv, after capturing the Black Sea city of Kherson in southern Ukraine prompting a mass exodus of refugees.

The invasion rages on

Ten days into the war, Russian forces has taken control of Europe's largest nuclear power station in Ukraine after it was hit by shelling. A fire started at the Zaporizhzhia plant after it was shelled by Russian troops. The UN's nuclear watchdog said radiation levels and the safety of reactors were however not affected.

For months, President Vladimir Putin denied he would invade his neighbour, but then he tore up a peace deal and unleashed what Germany calls "Putin's war", pouring forces into Ukraine's north, east and south.

As the number of dead climbs, Russia's leader stands accused of shattering peace in Europe. What happens next could jeopardise the continent's entire security structure.

Putin’s TV address

In a pre-dawn TV address on February 24, President Putin declared: “Russia cannot feel safe and exist because of a constant threat from modern Ukraine” and immediately after that, airports and military headquarters were attacked, then tanks and troops rolled in from Russia, Russian-annexed Crimea and its ally Belarus. Now, warplanes have bombed major cities.

Russia refuses to use the terms war or even invasion; many of its leader's justifications for it were false or irrational. Putin claimed his goal was to protect people subjected to bullying and genocide and aim for the "demilitarisation and de-Nazification" of Ukraine.

Russia accused Ukraine

President Putin has frequently accused Ukraine of being taken over by extremists ever since its pro-Russian President, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted in 2014 after months of protests against his rule, and Russia then retaliated by seizing the southern region of Crimea and triggering a rebellion in the east, backing separatists who have fought Ukrainian forces in a war that has claimed 14,000 lives.

Russia has long resisted Ukraine's move towards the European Union and the West's defensive military alliance, NATO. Announcing Russia's invasion, he accused NATO of threatening "our historic future as a nation".

How far will Russia go?

It is now clear Russia is seeking to seize the big cities and overthrow Ukraine's democratically elected government. President Zelensky said he had been warned "the enemy has designated me as target number one; my family is target number two".

Russia's stated aim is that Ukraine be freed from oppression and "cleansed of the Nazis", but Putin’s long-term ambitions for Ukraine are unknown, though he denies seeking to occupy Ukraine and rejected a UK accusation in January that he was plotting to instal a pro-Kremlin puppet. One unconfirmed intelligence report says he aims to split the country in two.

Stiff resistance

President Putin faces stiff resistance from a deeply hostile population, but he has shown he is prepared to bomb civilian areas to fulfil his goals. There is no immediate threat to Russia's Baltic neighbours, but NATO has bolstered their defences just in case.

Ahead of the invasion, Russia's public focus was always on the areas held by Russian-backed rebels in the east, but that changed when President Putin recognised their independence.

Not only did he make clear he saw them as no longer part of Ukraine; he revealed he backed their claims to far more Ukrainian territory. The self-styled people's republics cover little more than a third of the regions of Donetsk of Luhansk and the rebels cover the rest, too.

How dangerous is this invasion for Europe?

These are terrifying times for Ukrainians as bombs rain down on cities and civilians rush to Cold War-era bomb shelters. Hundreds have died already in what German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has dubbed "Putin's war;" civilians, as well as soldiers. Russia's onslaught has prompted hundreds of thousands of people to flee across Ukraine's borders. Poland, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and Slovakia are seeing a big influx, while the EU suggests more than seven million people could be displaced.

NATO has deployed several thousand troops in the Baltic states and Poland and for the first time is activating part of its much larger rapid reaction force. NATO will not say where but some could go to Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia.

At the same time, the West is targeting Russia's economy, financial institutions and individuals.

Russia, Ukraine

The Russian military is one of the most powerful in the world and it outnumbers Ukraine by far in terms of personnel, equipment and weapons but as far as size is concerned Ukraine is the largest country on the European continent, with the exception of the European part of Russia.

It became a state following World War I and then was a Soviet republic right up until the fall of the Soviet Union. On August 24, 1991, it officially declared its independence.

Ukraine gained independence 30 years ago, after the fall of the Soviet Union and it has since struggled to combat corruption and bridge deep internal divisions. Ukraine’s western region generally supported integration with Western Europe while the country’s eastern side favoured closer ties with Russia.

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