Analysts laud order at Akwatia by-election - Call for sustainable process

Four political analysts have welcomed the orderly conduct of the Akwatia by-election and said it should be the standard for future by-elections. 

They have, however, advocated a more pragmatic system that does not require such heavy police presence and other resource deployment for a single election, with one of them indicating that the level of resource deployment for the Akwatia by-election cannot be sustained.

They extolled all actors in the contest, particularly the police, who they said acted professionally, leading to an overall peaceful outcome of the election, which was conducted to replace the deceased Member of Parliament for the constituency.

Dr Amakye Boateng of the Department of History and Political Studies of the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Dr John Osei-Kwapong of the Ghana Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana), Project Director of the Democracy Project, researcher, pollster and Chief Executive of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, and a Governance Fellow of the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), Dr Samuel K. Darkwa, expressed diverse views on the Akwatia by-election that saw Bernard Bediako Baidoo of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) emerge the winner, in separate interviews with the Daily Graphic.

Dr Amakye-Boateng, for instance, commended the Electoral Commission (EC) and the Ghana Police Service for their successful management of the election.

“The EC demonstrated that it has mastered this whole thing with organising elections here in Ghana.

They (the staff) know the terrain, they understand the political parties, and they also now realise that they themselves should be on top of their business because elections are serious issues," he said.

The political analyst also praised the police for their robust presence, which he said prevented violence and ensured a peaceful outcome, adding that the police learnt from past experiences, particularly the Ablekum North partial rerun, where violence occurred due to inaction.

“The police took no chances, zero chances. The heavy presence of the police did not make violence possible," Dr Amakye-Boateng added.

He, however, expressed concern about the feasibility of replicating such extensive security arrangements for future elections, citing resource constraints, and emphasised the need for political parties to play by the rules and resolve electoral disputes through the courts rather than resorting to violence.

He said what determined the Akwatia by-election were the issues of the economy, jobs, galamsey (illegal mining) and education, saying those issues were crucial in determining electoral outcomes in the country.

“These four items are the first four items that determine people's votes, and looking at them closely, you see that they are all economic issues,” Dr Amakye-Boateng said.

Dr Darkwa said the Akwatia by-election was characterised by a largely peaceful and well-managed process, with the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) commending the professionalism displayed by the police and the EC.

“This recognition underscores the necessity of maintaining security throughout elections. However, allegations of vote-buying emerged as a significant concern that must be urgently addressed to uphold the integrity and fairness essential to Ghana’s democratic practices in future elections,” he said.

He said the NDC candidate benefited from both the advantages of incumbency and a long-standing presence in local development initiatives.

He added that the victory not only solidified the NDC's parliamentary majority but also enhanced its image as a party with growing momentum and popular backing, boosting morale in the lead-up to the 2028 elections and instilling confidence in swing constituencies.

Conversely, he argued, the defeat was a significant setback for the NPP.

“Historically, Akwatia has been a stronghold for the NPP, and losing it to the NDC calls for a period of serious introspection.

The NPP has previously enjoyed the benefits of incumbency, and this result serves as a stark reminder that the road to success in 2028 will not be straightforward,” he said. 

Mr Dankwa, who predicted the outcome of last Tuesday’s by-election correctly, said the good news for the NPP was that the party did not suffer from voter apathy in the by-election defeat.

“Lessons here: do not take the vote you get in an election to be your party's supporters. It is always a coalition of voters,” he said.

He said the NDC's win would add nothing to its parliamentary arithmetic apart from symbolism and proof that the party was still popular eight months after assuming office.

For the NPP, however, he said the results could be used to mobilise the grassroots for future elections.

Mr Dankwah explained that the exit poll run by Global InfoAnalytics showed that the NPP defeat was caused largely by NDC voters who voted for the NPP candidate, Ernest Kumi, now deceased, in the 2024 poll, but voted for the NDC candidate, Mr Baidoo, last Tuesday.

Dr Osae-Kwapong said the Akwatia by-election and its peaceful outcome should be commended, given the recent incidents during the partial rerun in Ablekuma North, where electoral violence was a predominant concern for many.

He added that the anticipated competitive contest further heightened the fear of possible electoral violence.

“The security forces, the political parties, and the officials of the EC must all be commended for conducting a successful, violence-free election.

This is what our democracy should continue to strive for so that we can strengthen and preserve the integrity of our elections,” he said.

He said the victory would allow the NDC to reinforce its emerging narrative as the most attractive political party in Ghana.

“That is the moral victory a political party can claim when it ‘snatches’ a parliamentary seat held by its main political rivals,” he said.

“In addition, the by-election was partly a litmus test for the government and whether they still have the goodwill of Ghanaians.

The victory allows them to assert that Ghanaians so far are pleased with how they are governing the country.

“For the NPP, the loss simply means further reflection on why the rejection in the 2024 elections appears to have continued in the Ablekuma North rerun and the Akwatia by-election.

Whatever the lessons are, the party needs to ascertain them quickly so it can properly inform them of their next steps.

In addition, electoral defeats can be demoralising and the NPP needs to find a way to avoid this,” he said.