Botswana opposition’s historic election victory

Since its independence 66 years ago, Botswana has been governed by the same political party for 58 years.

If the assumptions of path dependency hold true, then two outcomes should have always been true of the country’s elections – a) the ruling party always winning; and b) an incredibly difficult task of changing the political trajectory where an opposition party wins the election.

In fact,this is a country where even though eight out of 10 (79 per cent) on average (nine rounds of Afrobarometer data) disapprove/strongly disapprove of oneparty rule,the same party held on for 66 years. 

What happened in the just-ended election and the historic win of the opposition? The sentiments expressed by the people of Botswana over multiple rounds of the Afrobarometer survey
pointed to growing signs of discontent.

While various pundits focus on the economic factors,youth discontent and the impact of the global diamond market on the country’s economy, I want to look at the signals citizens regularly send through their answers to questions on the Afrobarometer survey. Signals from Afrobarometer survey Economic pinch points.

There were very clear signals that citizens were feeling several economic pinch points. In 2003, only 25 per cent described their personal living conditions as “fairly good or very good.” 

In 2022, this dropped significantly to 10 per cent.In addition,the gains made between 2012 and 2019 in those reporting that they faced cash income deprivation “many times/always”,which dropped (from 39 per cent to 18 per cent), vanished by 2022.

Between 2019 and 2022, the percentage reporting that they faced cash income deprivation “many times/always” almost doubled (18 per cent to 35 percent). 

Government performance in addressing economic pinch points.

The government was not seen as addressing economic challenges in a satisfactory manner.Citizens’ evaluation of how well the economy was being managed improved between 2002 and
2008 (+16 percentage points) but dropped between 2008 and 2017 (-17 percentage points).

After a temporary improvement between 2017 and 2019 (+7 percentage points), the percentage rating government’s management of the economy well dropped significantly by 2022 (65 per cent to 34 per cent).

On the question of job creation, although the rating of government performance saw periods of improvement (2002 to 2014, and 2017 to 2019), over the long run,between 1999 and 2022, the per cent rating of government performance well dropped significantly from 52 percent to 13 per cent.

The effect of these economic pinch points led citizens to become pessimistic about the future economic conditions of the country.In 2017, six out of 10 (63 percent) believed the economic conditions of the country would get “better or much better.”

By 2022, only four out of 10 (41 percent) felt the same, signalling a significant decline in the level of optimism.

The other effect was the percentage of citizens who felt the country was heading in the wrong direction – a significant increase from 38 per cent in 2012 to 73 per cent in 2022.

Perceptions of corruption

In 2002, only 16 per cent perceived “most/all” of the persons in the presidency as being involved in corruption.

By 2022, that had increased significantly to 50 per cent (49.8 per cent). 

In 2014, 51 per cent felt the level of corruption had increased “somewhat/a lot.”

By 2022, that increased significantly to 71 per cent (70.7 per cent).

The growing perceptions of increased corruption coincided with decreasing confidence in how well the government was fighting corruption.In 2008, as many as seven out of 10 (69 per cent) rated the government’s handling of the fight against corruption well. By 2022, that had decreased significantly to only three out of 10 (30 per cent).

Dissatisfaction with democracy Citizens may not go to the polls prioritising how they feel about democracy over the economy in terms of their choice of presidential candidate.

However, citizens may link the economic pinch points they face with how well democracy is addressing their basic needs.

And when there is a growing feeling that basic needs are not being met, satisfaction with democracy matters to how they vote,I would argue.

Between 1999 and 2008, satisfaction with the way democracy was working in Botswana increased from 75 per cent to 83 per cent.

Between 2008 and 2022, it decreased from 83 per cent to a historic low of 30 per cent.

This resulted in widening the gap between support for democracy and satisfaction with democracy from -7% to - 44%.

In essence, while the percentage of citizens expressing support for democracy remained high, those expressing satisfaction with it remained very low.

Key Lesson

Surveys such as the Afrobarometer go to lengths to capture the voices of citizens on critically important questions.

These are meant,in my opinion,to send clear signals to leaders with the hope of drawing positive policy and institutional responses to any challenges documented.

Perhaps the biggest lesson from Botswana is this – always pay close attention to the signals from the Afrobarometer survey