Nigeria too big to fail?

Nigeria has frequently been described by investors and die-hard optimists as too big and perhaps too important to fail. This prognosis is currently under serious threat.

So much has changed so quickly for this nation of 173 million people. Africa’s largest economy by gross domestic product (GDP) barely 36 months ago, Nigeria now appears to be at the nadir of hope. So, is Africa’s largest population patch gradually becoming a basket case? As usual, Nigerians will say, “No, certainly not” and “God forbid” to this assertion. But clearly, faith alone has never reversed economic regression, neither has it brought any nation out of the doldrums.

And talking about faith, many Nigerians are replacing the trust they reposed in President Muhammadu Buhari with disappointment and anguish. Disappointment because Buhari’s time in office has so far been largely uninspiring, and anguish because the only feeling of collective accomplishment has been the euphoria of successfully voting out the maladministration of their previous government for a lethargic one.

Nigerians are clearly fed up with Buhari’s hiatus-in-chief style of governance. They are sick and tired of Buhari’s team of technocrats and stalwarts saying they inherited a dysfunctional economy in 2015. Analysts from Nigeria’s Guaranty Trust Bank plc say the economy will begin to edge forward into positive territory this year after the recession of 2016. This should be good news for investors who have kept Nigeria on the watch-and-wait list since the first quarter of 2016.

Clearly, like citizens, investors also thrive on facts, figures, gut feeling and market sentiments. They hate being kept in the dark, especially on matters related to the health of the polity. And right now, the whole world has been kept in the dark about the state of health of the Nigerian President.

In January 2017, and for the third time in 20 months, Mr Buhari travelled abroad to rest and seek medical care, failing to return as promised within two weeks of his hurried departure. As this publication was going to press, he was yet to return home, ostensibly still in London, United Kingdom on the advice of his doctors. Expectedly, the rumour mill has been spinning overtime, with unconfirmed reports of the President’s demise or incapacitation. Authentic and periodic official statements from the Presidency have been replaced by social media babble, which has been abuzz with dreadful innuendo and pictures of a frail-looking Mr Buhari playing host to political allies and friends. On Wednesday, February 8, 2017, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo told the media he had spoken to his boss on phone that morning and that “the President is hale and hearty.” 

Constitutional experts say Osinbajo may be an able “acting President”, but may not have the full powers of the President, constitutionally speaking. In the absence of his boss, the Vice-President has held fort admirably well, injecting new energy into the governance and policy space.

Nigeria has been one of Africa’s lingering headaches for too long. For Nigeria and Africa’s sake, the substantive character and substance of the Nigerian political economy needs urgent remodelling. As Nigerians grapple with the vagaries of their ongoing economic emasculation (inflation peaked at 18.9% in February 2017), calls for a revision of the social and economic management strategies are in order.

Clearly, President Buhari’s government requires a fresh approach. When “change” is not working, then it ought to undergo change. Perhaps, this is already happening, albeit too slowly. Disappointed by successive governments for decades, Nigerians have become a hardy and impatient lot.

At home, Nigerians strive and struggle so much to achieve so little. Abroad, they tend to bloom and succeed. “That’s because Nigeria obviously hasn’t made truly transformative investments in the infrastructure, technical and social systems needed to grow human capital and galvanise productivity across all economic sectors,” says Oluwatoyin Adejumo, an accountant and Nigerian expatriate working out of the Dubai, UAE office of a global technology firm.

“Lack of technology-enabled systems and infrastructure, and the presence of bureaucratic bottlenecks are the hallmarks of underdeveloped economies all over the world,” Adejumo says, marveling at “the tireless spirit and can-do attitude” of the average Nigerian, and wondering aloud if “Nigerians will ever lose their resilience, jocularity and quest for the good things of life.” 

Therefore, resilience, humour and aspirational thinking are the Nigerian formula. These hallmarks may keep Africa’s tottering giant on the sane and sensible path as she experiences recovery pangs.

 A version of this article was originally published in the March 2017 edition of Forbes Africa magazine