The Mahama administration’s recent indication that it plans to acquire 200,000 hectares for cocoa production is, at face value, an audacious move.
Yet, on closer scrutiny, it appears more like a precarious gamble, one that risks repeating the mistakes of the past rather than securing our future.
Mainstay
There is no denying that cocoa has long been a mainstay of Ghana’s economy, a vital source of foreign exchange, a source of national identity and cultural heritage. However, its centrality to the nation’s economic fortunes has waned over the decades.
Ghana’s reliance on cocoa exports today feels less like strategic nation-building and more like a relapse and propping up of a neo-colonial extractivist economic model, designed to perpetually keep us in the trenches while others cream off the delights from our struggles.
Historically, the share of value, or cocoa profits captured by cocoa-producing countries has declined (currently around 3-7 per cent), and the forces driving that trend remain firmly in place.
Power asymmetries in global trade, weak leverage over pricing and volatile markets have all contributed to the persistent struggles of Ghana’s cocoa sector.
Let me hasten to add mismanagement and corruption, which is evident in the ongoing crisis facing COCOBOD and the broader industry.
Despite recent global surges in cocoa prices, largely driven by climate shocks and production shortfalls in major producing countries, Ghana has been unable to fully capitalise.
On the contrary, we still have over 100,000 tonnes arrears from rolled over contracts to service, having lost over US $800 million already.
We must not deceive ourselves into thinking that simply increasing production will reverse our fortunes.
Technological disruption
The history of commodity markets shows that supply gluts often lead to price crashes.
The 1937/1938 Cocoa Boycott and Riots serve as a cautionary tale: when Ghanaian (then Gold Coast) farmers increased output in response to high prices, the result was a total collapse.
The same fate could await us if we flood the market today, especially as other producers such as Brazil and Nigeria also scale up.
Moreover, we are entering an era of profound technological disruption in agriculture. Advances in biotechnology and synthetic biology are rapidly transforming the landscape of food and commodity production.
It is increasingly likely that the cocoa of the future will be produced not on plantations, but in labs and bioreactors.
Major food companies, e.g., California Cultured (USA), Kokomodo (Israel), Food Brewer (Switzerland), are already investing in lab-grown cocoa, driven by sustainability concerns and cost efficiency.
Land-based cocoa production
One must ask: is COCOBOD and the government even aware of these developments? And if so, what is the long-term rationale behind expanding land-based cocoa production?
Then there is the critical issue of land itself. Whose land is to be acquired, and where? Initial indications from COCOBOD suggest parts of the Oti region but also the Afram Plains.
What processes will govern this massive land acquisition(s), and who will make the decisions? Ghana’s land tenure systems are complex, deeply tied to identity, culture and community livelihoods.
Any attempt to repurpose 200,000 hectares, about 62 per cent of all lands in Greater Accra, must be handled with the utmost transparency and care.
Without inclusive stakeholder engagement, the government risks igniting social tensions, dispossessing communities and worsening rural inequality.
Land is one of our most precious national assets. Its use should be guided by a vision of well-being, ecological sustainability and economic justice.
Investing it in large-scale, most likely monoculture, cocoa plantations, especially at a time when global dynamics are shifting, seems not just short-sighted, but deeply misaligned with the future we ought to be building.
If the Mahama administration is serious about agricultural transformation and rural development, it must first pause and consult widely on this matter.
Farmers, scientists, civil society actors, and traditional authorities all have crucial insights to offer.
We need a national conversation not just about how we grow cocoa, but whether we should continue to structure our rural economy around it.
Boldness in policy is commendable. But when boldness is unmoored from critical reflection and foresight, it veers dangerously close to naïveté. The stakes are too high for us to get this wrong, again.
The writer Post-Doc, Land, Society and Governance Group, Leverhulme Centre for Nature Recovery, University of Oxford, UK. Scientific Advisor, PACT | Partnership for Agriculture, Conservation and Transformation, Ghana.
