West Africa’s democracy and the failed coup d’état in Benin

On December 7, the world woke up to news of a military coup in Benin.

Videos of soldiers announcing the takeover on state-owned media brought back memories of a sub-region’s post-independence trajectory, which for a long time was bedevilled with military coups.

Barely a month prior, the military successfully seized power in Guinea-Bissau as voters waited for the declaration of election results, which both the incumbent and main opposition candidate claimed victory. All this comes at a time when, within the last five years, there have been successful military takeovers in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Guinea. 

Signals

For pro-democracy forces, especially in West Africa, this was another warning signal of the dangers to democratic governance in the region and the urgent need to turn the tide.

Thankfully, within 24 hours, the Benin government announced that the coup had failed, with further reports of military support from Nigeria.

While relieved that the attempted coup failed, it reminded me of the warning former President of Ghana, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, issued to his West-African colleagues in 2023 that “democracy in West Africa is in danger.”

And the fact that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), following the attempted coup, announced the deployment of its standby force to protect Benin was the clearest signal that the regional bloc recognises the grave danger facing the sub-region.

Vulnerable democracy?

In examining data from the Afrobarometer survey of the 12 countries (Benin, Cabo Verde, Côte d´Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone) in the region that participated in Round 10 (2024/2025), here are some of the points of vulnerability.

The data is aggregated to show a regional picture, but keep in mind that there are variations across all the countries mentioned here.

First, there is a wide gap between support for democracy and satisfaction with the way democracy is working.

In a region where seven out of 10 citizens (70 per cent) say “democracy is preferable to any other form of government”, it is worrying to see that only 40 per cent say they are “fairly satisfied/very satisfied” with the way democracy is working. 

Second, citizens’ assessment of democracy is not encouraging, with 63 per cent describing democracy as having “minor/major” problems.

Only 19 per cent describe their countries as a “full democracy.”

This is surprising because citizens do believe they enjoy certain basic democratic freedoms.

For example, 74 per cent say they are completely free to “choose who to vote for without feeling pressure.” I must note, though, that only 45 per cent say they are completely free to “say what they think.”

Perhaps, citizens require a full democratic experience in addition to these basic freedoms
.

Elections

Third, is the issue of election.

When one thinks of how central electoral competition is to democracy, especially as the key tool for deciding how power is won or lost, then it is important that citizens have a high regard for the integrity of the electoral system.

However, in this survey, only 40 per cent rated elections as “completely free and fair.”

In addition, only 18 per cent express “a lot” of trust in election management bodies.

Fourth, 56 per cent of citizens agree that “it is legitimate for the armed forces to take control of government when elected leaders abuse power for their own ends.”

While it may never come to that, it remains very concerning that almost six out of ten citizens in the region are willing to grant conditional legitimacy to military intervention.

Fifth, and this is from Afrobarometer Round 9 (2021/2023), the level of democratic optimism was not very reassuring because only 38 per cent answered “somewhat/more democratic” when asked, “Do you think that in five years’ time, this country will be more democratic than it is now, less democratic or about the same?”

For context, and to explain why this is problematic, in the survey, 68 per cent described democracies in their countries as having problems.

This demonstrates a lack of faith in potential democratic improvements at a time when citizens recognised that democracy faced issues.

Food for Thought

While some of the above-identified vulnerabilities are not justification for military interventions, they help expose fault lines in the current state of democracy in West Africa.

In addition, they lend themselves to exploitation by those not committed to the democratic peace and stability of countries in the sub-region. 

I am encouraged by the actions of ECOWAS in response to what happened in Benin.

Yes, each country has responsibility for safeguarding its own democracy, but the potential ripple effects of democracies falling apart in the region make it imperative to design a collective response. 

It is a trying time indeed, but the need for ECOWAS’ leadership has never been more critical since the transitions to democracy that swept across not only West Africa but also Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s.

The writer is the Project Director, Democracy Project.