Ben Ephson 'fingers' voter apathy for his wrong election prediction

Pollster and Managing Editor of the Daily Dispatch newspaper, Ben Ephson, has offered insights into why his prediction for the 2024 general election did not materialise.

In a television interview on Joy Prime, Mr. Ephson attributed the discrepancy in his forecast to voter apathy among New Patriotic Party (NPP) members and executives. 

He explained that apathy, a factor that significantly impacts voter turnout, is difficult to detect in pre-election polling.  

“Over the past 23 years, I’ve done eight polls; I’ve missed two. Now, on both occasions, like this one, for example, it is difficult to know apathy. If you look at 2020 and 2024, the numbers that the NDC got were about the same. NPP’s numbers dropped by about 30 percent,” he stated.  

Closer look at the numbers  

Using the Ashanti Region—an NPP stronghold—as an example, Mr. Ephson highlighted a stark decline in voter turnout.  

“The votes that the NPP got in 2020 dropped by over 1.2 million in 2024 in Ashanti alone. So that is the problem with polling. It’s difficult to indicate apathy. It was the same thing in 2016,” he noted.  

Historical comparisons  

Mr. Ephson also drew a parallel with the 2016 United States presidential election, where Hillary Clinton, the Democrat candidate, lost to Donald Trump despite widespread predictions to the contrary.  

“When she [Hillary Clinton] was campaigning with Obama for a Democrat slot, she took potshots at the Blacks. So when she became a Democrat candidate, they refused to turn out. So that’s one of the problems with polling. You cannot indicate apathy that people will not turn out,” he explained.  

Reflecting on the NPP’s performance, he reiterated that voter apathy was the deciding factor.  

“If the remaining 30% of the NPP turned out to cast their ballots for the party, Dr. Bawumia would have emerged victorious because he thinks the NDC victory numbers were similar to the previous elections,” Mr. Ephson concluded.  

The failure of the 2024 prediction underscores the complexities of polling and the challenges in capturing variables like voter apathy. For Mr Ephson, the lessons from this election add another layer of nuance to his career in political analysis.