Road to Election 2024: Will independents impact next Parliament? - Analysts share varied views

Ghana’s political landscape has hardly been kind to independent candidates in both presidential and parliamentary elections, but this has not dimmed the ambitions of such non-aligned political adventurers.

Across the eight elections of the Fourth Republic, for instance, only Hawa Yakubu in 1993 and Andrew Asiamah Amoako in 2021 made it into Parliament as independent candidates.

The situation appears steeped in the ideological orientations prominent in the nation’s political system.

Indeed, the system has favoured the socialist ideology as advanced by the country’s first President, Dr Kwame Nkrumah, and the capitalist orientation of the Dankwa-Busia-Dombo tradition.

Those who refuse to yield to either of the two political ideological orientations find solace under the “independent” tag.

Despite Yakubu and Asiamah Amoako being the only ones to have scraped through as independent candidates, many still find the path worthy to chart in their political ambitions.

For the majority, they have only succeeded in breaking the ranks of a party’s support base, and disrupted the chances of major candidates. In effect, independent candidates emerging from the bigger parties limit their parties’ chances of securing the relevant seat.

For the 2024 general election, the Electoral Commission (EC) has recorded 111 independent candidates, including even in Volta and Ashanti regions, the respective strongholds of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP).

Analysts

But Political Science lecturer at the University of Education, Winneba (UEW), Gilbert Arhinful Aidoo, said independent candidates in the 2024 general election “may have significant, though variable, influence depending on local dynamics and voters’ appetite for change”.

He told the Daily Graphic that regardless of the NPP and the NDC’s dominance, growing dissatisfaction with those parties could open the door for independent candidates, especially in specific constituencies.

“In the 2020 elections, some independent candidates, like Andrew Amoako Asiamah in Fomena, made a notable impact by unseating major party candidates and later playing a key role in the balance of power in the Eighth Parliament.

“Several factors may influence independent candidates’ role on December 7. First, voter dissatisfaction with the main political parties owing to the excruciating poverty and rising cost of living, poor handling of internal party wranglings, economic challenges, and unfulfilled promises could lead some to seek alternatives. Independent candidates who offer localised, issue-based solutions may attract disillusioned voters.

“Secondly, independent candidates with strong personal brands or proven community service records may capitalise on internal divisions or unpopular candidates within the major parties, increasing their chances of success,” the lecturer said.

Mr Arhinful Aidoo added that strategic voting would also be crucial, especially if this year’s election results produce another close contest in Parliament.

“In such a context, independent members may become key power brokers, forming alliances or negotiating for concessions to benefit their constituencies.

Furthermore, while independent candidates may face challenges in campaign financing compared to the well-resourced NPP and NDC, grassroots mobilisation and strong community ties can help them overcome these obstacles,” the academic explained.

He said if neither the NPP nor the NDC secured a clear parliamentary majority, independents could once again play a decisive role, acting as mediators and balancing the polarised political landscape.

“Their ability to align flexibly with either side on specific issues could make them influential in shaping policies. Although the road ahead is challenging, they possess the potential to shape Ghana’s political future, particularly if the country’s political landscape remains competitive and divided.

“In a polarised and competitive political landscape, independent candidates may be pivotal players in shaping the governance process,” he added.

“In a polarised and competitive political landscape, independent candidates may be pivotal players in shaping the governance process,” he said.

Significant impact

The Head of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, said in regions where a party remained very dominant, for example, in the Ashanti and the Eastern for the NPP, and the Volta for the NDC, “it is unlikely that independent candidates will make a significant impact”.

“However, in the regions and specific constituencies where the race is keenly contested, the independent candidates are likely to have a significant impact. If a party's front is divided, it may allow the party that places second to overtake and win the race.

“In the swing constituencies, if they have independent candidates, it could lead to seats flipping to the ruling government or the opposition.

We expect few independent candidates to win some seats, noticeable from the Bono Region and Ashanti Region, but we don't expect them to hold a balance of power because the next Parliament will not be like the current one,” he said.

Mr Dankwah, who had run polls on the 2024 elections, said data from the October 2024 poll showed the regions with a high proportion of voters who wanted to vote for other parties or independent parliamentary candidates other than from the NPP and the NDC, had the Eastern and the Volta regions leading the pack with 13 per cent each.

Central Region had 10 per cent, Ashanti Region had eight per cent, Western Region had six per cent, and Greater Accra had five per cent.

Partisanship

The Senior Programmes Officer of Parliamentary Network Africa, Benjamin Opoku Aryeh, said despite the increasing partisanship in Ghana's political landscape, political parties still remained the most effective vehicles for achieving political goals.

“For an independent candidate to make a significant impact, they must develop a formidable political structure, use media strategically, and effectively communicate their value proposition to voters.

This requires convincing the electorate (about) why they are a better alternative to the major parties,” he said in an interview.

Mr Opoku Aryeh said while independent candidates might not drastically alter the presidential race, they could become crucial power brokers in Parliament, especially if no party secured a clear majority, as was seen in the 2020 elections.

“In such scenarios, independents may hold the balance of power and be courted by the NPP or the NDC to form coalitions, thus influencing policy direction and governance,” he said.

“Independent candidates may face significant barriers but have the potential to disrupt established political competition, forcing major parties to adjust their strategies.

Although they are less likely to win presidential elections, their presence can influence electoral outcomes, pushing the presidential election into a run-off and influencing parliamentary outcomes and, in some cases, even become critical in forming a caucus that determines the balance of power in Parliament,” he added.

Mr Opoku Aryeh said at the local level, independent parliamentary candidates were more embedded in the identity of grassroots communities, making them key figures in certain constituencies.

“Although their national performance may appear limited, independent candidates can still influence outcomes in specific regions of Ghana where voters may prioritise local development over party loyalty.

“For instance, an independent candidate is more likely to perform well if they have a strong personal following or are widely respected within their community. Factors such as incumbency, popularity, and charisma play a crucial role in determining the success of these candidates,” he argued.

Internal threats

Emeritus Professor of Politics at the London Metropolitan University in the United Kingdom (UK), Prof. Jeffery Haynes, said independent candidates emerging from one of the two major parties would end up ruining the party’s chances for a parliamentary seat.

He cited the case of the NPP’s Agona West Member of Parliament (MP), Cynthia Morrison, and Suhum MP, Kwadwo Asante, and the NDC MP for Amenfi Central, Peter Yaw Kwakye-Ackah, announcing intentions to go independent after losing their respective parties parliamentary primaries.

“Having some high-profile members and parliamentary candidates running in opposition to official NPP candidates poses a significant threat to the party’s hopes of securing a comfortable majority in the next Parliament, as there is a chance that in at least some constituencies, the NPP vote will be split, allowing the NDC candidates to prosper,” Prof. Haynes said.