Wavering on democracy, but why?

I often argue that Ghanaians have made their peace with democracy.

This is because, over 10 rounds of the Afrobarometer survey, conducted between 1999 and 2024, cumulatively eight out of 10 (75 per cent) say “democracy is preferable to any other kind of government.”

Even in Round 10 (2024), when satisfaction with democracy hit an all-time low and only 49 per cent said they were satisfied with the way “democracy was working in Ghana”, support remained high at 74 per cent.

But that peace with democracy must confront certain overlooked sentiments.

In further analysis of how Ghanaians responded to the “support for democracy” question in Round 10 (2024), compared to Round 1 (1999), it prompts me to think out loud and ask: Why are some Ghanaians wavering on democracy?

18 per cent flash point

Here is how Afrobarometer presents the support for democracy question in the survey.

Respondents are asked to choose from one of three statements: a) Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; b) In some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable; and c) For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have.

Respondents also have the option of answering “don’t know.”

The maiden edition of the survey (1999) captured nine per cent of Ghanaians saying, “in some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable.”

This dropped to five per cent in the survey year 2002. Since then, there has been a steady increase. In the most recent survey year (2024), 18 per cent of Ghanaians chose this option. This doubled the number of Ghanaians who felt that sometimes a non-democratic government is okay, back in 1999.

Who is wavering, and why?

Across 22 demographic groups examined, the percentage saying “in some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable” ranged between 15 and 21 per cent.

The top three groups are: a) Ghanaian men (21 per cent); b) Ghanaians with a post-secondary education (21 per cent); and c) Ghanaians between the ages of 18 and 25 (20 per cent). 

The top three groups with the highest percentage change between 1999 and 2024 are: a) Ghanaian men (+12); b) Ghanaians aged between 46 and 55 (+12); and c) Ghanaians with no formal schooling (+11), tied with d) Ghanaians aged between 26 and 35 (+11).

What possibly explains this trend? For answers, I focus on the respondents in Round 10 (2024) because it is the year in which the exponential growth is recorded.

I probed for reasons in three broad categories: a) feelings about their key democratic rights; b) economic experiences; and c) evaluation of the governance environment.

I compare their responses to those who say they prefer democracy.

On how they feel about their key democratic rights (free speech, freedom of political association and voting freedom), there was no significant difference between them.

For example, among both groups, roughly 81 per cent felt “completely free” to join any political organisation.

Regarding their economic experiences, evaluations of living conditions were similar.

Among those saying non-democratic is sometimes okay, 68 per cent rated their living conditions as “fairly bad/very bad.”

Among those saying democracy is preferable, 67 per cent also rated their living conditions as “fairly bad/very bad.”

When their economic experiences are compared on the Afrobarometer question, which asks respondents how long they have gone without certain basic necessities (food, medical care, water, cooking fuel, cash income), the differences between the two groups are not significant.

It appears so far that the issue of their wavering is not related to how they feel about key democratic rights or economic experiences. 

Potential explanation and implications

What potentially explains their wavering is- a) evaluation of the governance environment; and b) experiences with democracy overall. In looking at the governance environment, I picked two key issues related to institutions– trust and perceptions of corruption. Interestingly, both groups shared similar sentiments on perceptions of corruption.

However, there were notable differences in trust in specific institutions.

Those wavering were less trusting of institutions (the presidency, police, electoral commission and traditional leaders) compared to those who prefer democracy.

Strangely, there was no difference between the two groups regarding their trust in the courts, parliament and local government.

Their experience with democracy overall shows significant differences.

Those wavering predominantly say “Ghana is a democracy, but with major problems.”

Those who prefer democracy predominantly say, “Ghana is a democracy, but with minor problems.”

Among those wavering, only 37 per cent say they are “satisfied with the way democracy is working” compared to 54 per cent of those who prefer democracy.

As mentioned in the introductory paragraph, there is high support for democracy.

Nonetheless, such signals cannot be ignored.

What if the trajectory continues, with more Ghanaians becoming open to the idea that a non-democratic alternative form of government is okay?

It is precisely because of this concern that I explored further who these “democracy waverers” are and what drives their sentiment.

The writer is the Project Director, Democracy Project.