Yamal, Dembélé, standout favourites for 2025 Ballon d'Or

As the curtain falls on the 2024–2025 football campaign, all eyes are fixed on the upcoming Ballon d'Or ceremony set for September 22.

Once tipped for glory, early contenders like Raphinha and Mohamed Salah have faded from the spotlight. Now, the race has boiled down to just two standout stars: the precocious brilliance of Lamine Yamal and the electrifying form of Ousmane Dembélé.

To win football’s most prestigious individual award, three key factors are taken into account, according to French media, L’Équipe. First, individual performances and how decisive and impressive they are. Second, collective success and trophies won. Lastly, elegance and fair play.

On one side, there is Ousmane Dembélé. At 28, the Frenchman has transformed this season. Shifted into a central role by Luis Enrique, the forward has exploded in 2025, ending the campaign with 33 goals and 13 assists in 49 matches, according to Foot Mercato.

With 21 goals in Ligue 1, Dembélé finished as joint top scorer alongside Mason Greenwood. It’s a first for the Frenchman, who had never scored more than eight league goals in a season until now.

On the other side is Lamine Yamal. At just 17, the Barcelona winger is already considered to be among the best players in the world. While his stats aren’t quite as eye-catching as Dembélé’s, they’re still remarkable: 16 goals and 21 assists in 53 matches.

Beyond the numbers, it's the player's overall impact on the pitch that stands out. Since Lionel Messi, no one has looked capable of changing a game quite likes Lamine Yamal... and he's only 17. After a brilliant Euros last year with Spain, he has backed it up this season by being Barcelona’s X factor.

If we compare their trophy hauls for the 2024–2025 season, both players completed a domestic treble: league title, cup and super cup. But Ousmane Dembélé added one more major prize – the Champions League. With eight goals and six assists in the competition, the Frenchman was named UEFA's player of the tournament after the final.

When it comes to stats, Dembélé also comes out on top. However, it's worth remembering that the two don’t play in the same position – Dembélé operates centrally while Yamal plays on the right wing.

Still, with 33 goals compared to Yamal’s 16, the Paris forward leads the way. On the other hand, Yamal provided more assists – 21 to Dembélé’s 13.

Another key point is how both players performed in crucial matches. Dembélé made the difference in six of the eight Champions League knockout games, scoring four goals and providing five assists, including two in the final.

Yamal, for his part, was decisive in three of Barcelona’s six knockout games, with three goals and one assist. Although he only scored once against Inter Milan, his overall performance across both legs left a lasting impression.

Outside the Champions League, Barcelona also play in El Clásico against Real Madrid – arguably the most high-profile fixture in world football.

That matters too. Yamal made a real impact in these matches, with three goals and two assists in four games. Unfortunately, there’s no French fixture with the same global spotlight, so in this category, we’ll call it an honourable draw.

One of the Ballon d'Or criteria is the visual impact a player has – the flair, the magic. And here, there’s no debate: Lamine Yamal is untouchable.

The Barcelona star has delighted football fans with outrageous passes (especially with the outside of his boot), dazzling dribbles and unforgettable goals. In contrast, Ousmane Dembélé has been less flamboyant but more clinical in front of goal.

The final criterion is class and fair play. Last year, this may have tipped the scales in favour of Rodri over Vinicius. This time, it likely won't be decisive. Both Yamal and Dembélé have shown exemplary behaviour on and off the pitch, with no major controversies.

Looking at other elements that could influence the vote, the power of the FC Barcelona badge at the Ballon d'Or cannot be overlooked. It’s no secret that playing for Real Madrid or Barça offers a major boost when it comes to winning the award, and this could benefit Yamal.

This visibility is driven by the global fanbases of both clubs and the worldwide reach of El Clásico.

While the Premier League is widely seen as the world’s top league, La Liga is still viewed as the second most prestigious. In comparison, Ligue 1 is often ranked fifth among Europe’s top leagues. This perception could work against Ousmane Dembélé.

One final factor to consider is the Nations League. If either player delivers a standout performance, it could give them a big push towards the Ballon d'Or.

The Club World Cup is also taking place this summer, and Ousmane Dembélé will be involved with PSG – unlike Lamine Yamal.

As former PSG coach Jean Fernandez put it: "If it’s a close contest, we’d call it 50-50 between Lamine Yamal and Ousmane Dembélé." Right now, it really is neck and neck. But if we had to make a call, we’d lean slightly towards Lamine Yamal – thanks to his dazzling style and the weight of Barcelona’s influence in the Ballon d'Or race.