The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily in terms of income losses, have exacerbated vulnerabilities and heightened existing levels of food insecurity, the latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report (CPFSR), released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), has said.

It assessed that globally, 45 countries, including 34 in Africa, nine in Asia and two in Latin America and the Caribbean, are in need of external assistance for food, with conflicts and climate-related shocks continuing to underpin the high levels of severe food insecurity.

The CPFSR also provides the latest data on Low-Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs).

According the most recent assessments, total cereal production of the 47 LIFDCs is forecast to decline by 2.1 per cent in 2021, to 190 million tonnes.

The drop mostly relates to expected production downturns in Near East Asian countries, notably in Afghanistan and the Syrian Arab Republic, where widespread and prolonged drought conditions cut yields and dampened this year’s production prospects.

Among the LIFDCs in Africa, scarce rainfall in Somalia is expected to result in a sizeable production decline and small reductions are also likely in several West African countries where conflicts continue to erode farming households’ productive capacities.

In southern African countries, production upturns are expected to boost households’ food availability and partly offset some negative effects from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Some of the 45 countries in need of external assistance for food are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Liberia, Kenya, Sierra Leone, Niger, Nigeria among others.


Global food prices

Global food commodity prices fell in June for the first time in 12 months, a United Nations (UN) benchmark report has shown.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Food Price Index tracks changes in the international prices of the most globally traded food commodities.

The drop in June reflected declines in the prices of vegetable oils, cereals and though more moderately, dairy products, which more than offset generally higher meat and sugar quotations.

A breakdown shows that the FAO Food Price Index averaged 124.6 points in June 2021, down 2.5 per cent from May, but still 33.9 per cent higher than its level in the same period last year. The decline in June marked the first drop in the Index following twelve consecutive monthly increases.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index fell by 9.8 per cent in the month, marking a four-month low. The sizeable month-on-month drop mainly reflects lower international prices of palm, soy and sunflower oils.

The FAO Cereal Price Index fell by a more moderate 2.6 per cent from May, but remained 33.8 per cent higher than its value in June 2020.

The FAO Meat Price Index also rose by 2.1 per cent over the month to June, continuing the increases for the ninth consecutive month and placing the index 15.6 per cent above its value in the corresponding month last year, but still 8.0 per cent below its peak reached in August 2014.


World cereal inventories

The FAO’s forecast for global cereal production in 2021 has been lowered marginally to 2817 million tonnes, according to the latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released. However, the figure remains 1.7 per cent, or 47.8 million tonnes, higher than in 2020, which would mark a new record high.

World wheat output in 2021 has been lowered by one million tonnes to 784.7 million tonnes, still 1.2 per cent higher year-on-year, as the dry weather conditions cut back yield prospects.

By contrast, the forecast of global rice production in 2021 has undergone a slight upward adjustment since June, with a record of 519.5 million tonnes of rice now expected to be harvested in 2021, up 1.0 per cent from 2020.

World cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2021/22 are now forecast to rise above their opening levels for the first time since 2017/18, following a sharp upward revision to 836 million tonnes, up 2.4 per cent from last year’s relatively tight level.

The FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals in 2021/22 has been raised slightly since June and now stands at a record 472 million tonnes.