BDCs predict 2% drop in fuel prices

The Chamber of Bulk Oil Distributors (CBOD) has revised the benchmark foreign exchange (FX) forward from 60 days to 30 days (60-days forwards rate to 30-days forwards rate).

The revision was expected to translate into a two per cent and three per cent fall in ex-pump prices of refined petroleum products, the chamber said in a report copied to the Daily Graphic.
 
It explained that the projected reductions could translate into between 10 pesewas per litre to 15 pesewas in price drop per litre for both gas oil and gasoline.

The report explained that the revision was to help encourage industry players to revise their FX rates downwards and help reduce pump prices for consumers.

As a result, it said “the forward FX rate 30 (FuFeX30) shall be the benchmark FX rate instead of the FuFeX60 for establishing the price indicators”.

The FuFeX used is the average of the quoted indicative forward forex rate from major oil financing banks adjusted by the covered-interest parity pricing model.

The CBOD, which is an advocacy group for bulk oil distributing companies (BDCs), tracks the movement of FX and its implication on ex-pump prices of refined petroleum products.

“The Fufex30 to be applied for the second selling window of August 16 to 31, 2019 is GH¢5.57/USD.

Ex-refinery price indicator

The report explained that the ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) was computed using the referenced international market prices.

It said the prices were usually adopted by BDCs, factoring the CBOD economic break-even benchmark premium for a given window and converted from USD/mt to GH¢/ltr using the FuFeX.

“The adoption of a Fufex30 and the fall in international market prices of gasoline and gas oil will translate to about two per cent to three per cent fall in ex-pump prices for the coming window (August 16 to 31), all other things being equal.

OMC pricing performance

The report said the average ex-pump prices for gasoline and gas oil for the first window of August remained the same as the previous two windows.

It said ex-pump prices in the first window of August stood at GH¢5.163/ltr for both gasoline and gas oil.

“Prices for the year have consistently remained above the GH¢5/ltr mark since the first window of March.

 “Average ex-pump prices of gasoline and gas oil have increased by 5.13 per cent and 5.06 per cent year-to-date compared to the 8.24 per cent and 8.36 per cent increase observed same period last year and a year-on-year increase of about six per cent,” it said.

OMC performance

Out of the top 10 oil marketing companies (OMCs), the report said Vivo Energy Shell, GOIL and TOTAL displayed the highest prices at their pumps.

“For the first selling window of August (August 1-5), the top three highest selling OMCs sold gasoline and gas oil at an average price of GH¢5.195/ltr.

“Star Oil displayed the least price at the pump for both gasoline and gas oil with a price of GH¢5.110/ltr at its pumps for both gasoline and gas oil,” it said.