Power play behind Russia-Ukraine war

As the conflict in Ukraine drags on with no sign of a ceasefire, many questions remain unanswered.

The war, which began on February 24, 2022, has now entered its third year, leaving behind widespread destruction and countless lives lost.

Despite global efforts to mediate, the war shows no sign of abating, largely due to the involvement of major world powers, many of whom have chosen sides, complicating any attempts at neutral mediation.

One significant issue is that the major powers involved have made their allegiances clear, making it harder for them to act as impartial mediators. Some experts argue that the war has continued for so long in part because these global powers have effectively turned the conflict into a proxy war, each supporting their chosen side. 

Allies

Russia and Ukraine both have substantial backing from various allies, each supplying military aid and personnel, either openly or covertly.

The United States, for example, has provided Ukraine with over $66.5 billion in security assistance since President Biden took office, including approximately $65.9 billion since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

This has led some analysts to argue that Russia is, in effect, fighting against the U.S. rather than Ukraine, since the U.S. has been the primary source of military support for Ukraine from the very beginning of the conflict.

However, Washington’s interest in the war appears to be waning as the anticipated outcomes have not materialised.

The U.S. seems eager to shift the burden of the conflict onto the European Union, with hopes that European countries will take on a larger financial and military role. 

In turn, the U.S. stands to benefit by selling weapons to be used in the war.

The American establishment has come to realise that their financial investments in Ukraine have not been as profitable as expected, and the growing risk of the conflict escalating into a full-scale nuclear war has made many uneasy.

In response to this, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made adjustments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, warning that the use of nuclear weapons would be justified if any nuclear-armed nation were to supply Ukraine with weapons.

This nuclear posturing has influenced the U.S. approach, leading to a gradual shift in responsibility for funding the war from the U.S. to the European Union.

Washington has also encouraged NATO to purchase weapons from the U.S. under the guise of unifying the alliance’s military resources.

EU

The European Union’s increasing financial involvement in the war comes with significant domestic implications, particularly for the well-being of European citizens.

EU member states are already feeling the economic strain, with the European Central Bank raising interest rates to between four and 4.5 per cent in 2024, up from a historically low zero per cent in 2019. This shift in economic policy signals that EU countries are facing growing financial pressures, and further investment in the Ukraine war could exacerbate these challenges.

Reports have surfaced that the U.S. Department of Defense has been negotiating with NATO members, such as Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, to supply American military equipment as part of a broader strategy to unify NATO's weapons stockpile.

This initiative has already led to significant arms deals, including agreements worth over $14 billion for advanced military equipment like F-35 fighter jets and Abrams tanks.

The U.S. remains a trusted partner for many European countries, using this relationship to promote American military products and deepen Europe’s dependence on U.S. security support.

As the war continues, the involvement of superpowers is shaping the trajectory of the conflict, with both economic and geopolitical consequences for Europe and beyond.