Africa’s democracy: Initial signals from Afrobarometer 2024

Afrobarometer Round 10 surveys are underway. Their goal is to cover as many as forty-two (42) countries in this round. Last week, data for 14 countries (Angola, Cameroun, Cote d’Ivoire, Gabon, Gambia, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Tunisia, Uganda and Zimbabwe) who have already completed their Round 10 surveys became available online. 

Analysing the data on a few critical questions, in this op-ed piece, I share with you some initial signals as we wait for the remaining countries including Ghana to finish their Round 10 surveys.

Please note that there is no comparison to results from previous rounds for purposes of detecting where there has been improvement or even deterioration. That will come later. For now, I focus on a) the aggregate picture; and b) across-country variations.

Initial signals

Preference for democracy remains strong among citizens, although it is important to note the across-country variations. Overall, seven out of 10 (79 per cent) say that “democracy is preferable to any other form of government.”

Across the 14 countries, preference for democracy ranges from 52 per cent to 86 per cent. Support for elections remains very strong among citizens, with eight out of 10 (76 per cent) saying that leaders must be chosen through free and fair elections. Support is especially high (80 per cent and above) in Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Guinea, Mauritius and Uganda.

Support for presidential term limits also remains strong with seven out of 10 (74 per cent) saying that presidents must be limited to two terms in office. Support is especially high (80 per cent and above) in Gabon, Gambia, Guinea, Kenya, and Zimbabwe.

Support was exceptionally low in Lesotho (39 per cent). Support for multipartyism is generally strong with seven out of 10 (66 per cent) saying “many political parties are needed to make sure that citizens have real choices in who governs them.”

Support ranges between 57 per cent and 78 per cent across 11 countries. Three countries deviate from this overall picture. In Tunisia and Lesotho, the majority response was “political parties create division and confusion; it is therefore unnecessary to have many political parties.” Citizens were split (50 per cent-50 per cent) in Guinea on this question.

Support for political party turnover is mixed. By a margin of 52 per cent to 48 per cent, the overall response is that “In a democracy, it is better if power sometimes changes hands in elections from one political party to another.”

In Angola, Cameroun, Côte d´Ivoire, Gabon, Gambia, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Mauritius and Morocco, majority support political party turnover. In Kenya, Lesotho, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, and Tunisia, the majority response was “In a democracy, as long as a government is elected by the people in a free and fair election, it doesn’t matter if one party always wins and continuously governs the country.”

In Uganda and Zimbabwe, citizens were split equally (50 -50 per cent) on this question. The extent of democracy is mixed. In six countries (Angola, Cameroun, Gabon, Gambia, Lesotho, Zimbabwe), the predominant response category on this question was “a democracy, with major problems.”

In seven countries (Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Tunisia, Uganda), the predominant response category was “a democracy, with minor problems.” In Guinea, the predominant response was “not a democracy.”

Satisfaction with the way democracy is working is low, especially placed within the context of the strong support for democracy. Overall, only four out of 10 (44 per cent) say they are “fairly satisfied/very satisfied” with the way democracy is working.

The level of satisfaction is very varied with as low as twenty per cent (20 per cent) of citizens in Angola saying they are satisfied and as high as seventy per cent (70 per cent) in Morocco saying same.

A quick return to civilian rule is the general preference for citizens in the unlikely event of a military intervention. When asked “If the military were ever to intervene in government, which of the following three statements is closest to your opinion?” – 45 per cent answered “restore civilian rule as soon as possible;” 34 per cent answered “gradual transition to civilian rule;” and 21 per cent answered “rule as long as best for the country.”

Concluding Thought

It is encouraging to see strong support for democracy and certain democratic norms emerging from these initial signals. Satisfaction with democracy continues to remain low, and a point of concern.

Another point of concern is the conditional support Africans appear to give to military intervention as a corrective measure to dysfunctional democracies.

The survey results from these countries show fifty-seven per cent (57 per cent) agreeing that “it is legitimate for the armed forces to take control of government when elected leaders abuse power for their own ends.”

This sentiment is shared by a majority across 10 of the fourteen countries with only two saying otherwise and one country split. These initial signals suggest there is still work to be done as countries work to not only consolidate but also deepen democratic practices in their individual countries.

The writer is Executive Director, Democracy Project