Election 2024: An Unconventional Election?
We can agree that Ghanaians have experienced painful economic pinch points under this government.
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Granted, the administration has regularly argued that the twin global events of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war explain why. In addition, key democracy and good governance indices show slippages in the quality of governance and Ghana’s democracy.
The results of the most recent Afrobarometer (Round 9, 2022) pointed to a country where citizens a) rated central government performance in key policy domains poorly; b) gave the president the lowest job approval rating (29%) in the history of the survey; c) expressed low levels of trust in institutions; and d) perceived increased levels of corruption. This is not the kind of political landscape any incumbent party prefers.
The country is also at the end of the eight-year rotation in office where Ghanaians vote out the incumbent party with a little caveat for 2016. The incumbent party had been in office for eight years, but the incumbent president had only been in office for four years. Nonetheless the point remains about the eight-year rotation of incumbent parties.
Against this backdrop, conventional wisdom says the National Democratic Congress (NDC) should win this year’s presidential and parliamentary elections. I am on record for asserting that the political winds are blowing more favourably towards the NDC while acknowledging that time has a way of reshaping things.
The country is five months away from the election and I find myself wondering whether this year’s election will be an unconventional one. Will the incumbent party manage to escape any political liability for what Ghanaians have experienced and vote for Dr Bawumia?
Let me share with you some signals picked up from the July 2024 Global Info Analytics poll which appears to have gone largely unnoticed compared to the one released in April. In my opinion, the April poll gained more traction.
Comparing the July to April poll forms the basis upon which I raise the question of whether 2024 will buck the eight-year rotation trend. A quick note about the poll. As discussed in my analysis of the April 2024 poll, the efforts of Global Info Analytics and the transparency with which they share their work especially the methodology used is commendable.
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My one recommendation remains the gender make of the sample. Given that female voters make up 51 per cent of the voting population as per the last voter registration statistics, their share of the sample size can be increased.
Signals from July 2024 Poll
Signal 1 – The central economic growth and job creation idea of NDC’s campaign is the 24-hour economy. In the July poll, 42 per cent said the 24-hour economy, as an election slogan, was likely to influence their vote.
This is down six percentage points from the April poll raising the question of whether the slogan is losing some steam. As I wrote last week, John Mahama’s media engagement where he articulated a single coherent narrative regarding the policy and what it seeks to do may halt any further loss of steam of the idea as influential for voters.
If you juxtapose this against a core idea associated with Dr Bawumia – digitalisation – its influence has grown by six percentage points (29% to 35%) between April and July. It still lags the 24-hour economy but what if the trajectories continue between now and November and its possible consequences for December 7 ?
Signal 2 – John Mahama still leads Dr Bawumia in the poll, but the July poll shows some changes across various categories of voters. Overall, the percentage of committed voters declaring their intentions to vote for John Mahama has declined by approximately four percentage points (55.5% to 51.1%).
Notable changes where support for John Mahama has weakened between April and July are as follows – a) floating voters (- 4%); b) voters describing themselves as belonging to other political parties (-7%); and c) voters who will not disclose their party affiliation (-9%). What if this trajectory continues?
Signal 3 – The Regional picture shows that out of the sixteen regions, support for John Mahama has decreased in ten of them by an average of eight percentage points. In the six remaining regions, support has improved by an average of four percentage points.
In important swing regions, support has declined as follows – Greater Accra (-9%) and Central Region (-12%). What if this trajectory continues?
What Will Happen on December 7?
What are voters really planning to do on December 7 ? We will know the answer on that day or shortly thereafter. This election may be far from over. In reflecting on these signals, it dawned on me that time may be a better friend to Dr Bawumia than John Mahama. But let’s wait to see what voters do on December 7, 2024.
The writer is the Project Director, Democracy Project
