Ghanaian pollster Mussa Dankwa and his team at Global Info Analytics have steadily positioned themselves as a decisive force in the country’s electoral landscape.
Over the past years, the outfit has built a strong reputation for credible election forecasting, with political actors across the divide acknowledging the weight of its projections — whether presidential, parliamentary or by-elections.
The accuracy of the polls has become magnetic, drawing some prospective candidates into the race while compelling others — gripped by what some call “electoral fetishism” — to redesign their strategies in hopes of defying the odds.
NPP’s internal politics
Mussa Dankwa’s controversial projection that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and its 2024 presidential candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, risk losing the 2028 elections has had an undeniable impact.
Released shortly after the 2024 polls, the forecast suggested that many Ghanaians would prefer a different NPP candidate in 2028.
Analysts argue that this unsettling projection triggered a shift in the party’s internal order.
The NPP broke with its long-standing tradition of electing executives from the ward level up to the national stage before choosing a flagbearer.
Instead, the leadership fast-tracked the presidential primary — a move widely seen as a direct response to Dankwa’s assessment of Bawumia’s weakened prospects.
The official explanation was that this new arrangement would give the eventual flagbearer more time to campaign.
Others argue it was also meant to allow the party to heal divisions likely to arise after the January 31, 2026, primary.
Analysts, however, believe the change was more than a reaction to polling.
They see it as a calculated move by Bawumia loyalists within the party hierarchy to secure his candidacy for 2028.
That suspicion has since been confirmed by the Bono and Ashanti Regional Chairmen, Kwame Baffoe (Abronye) and Bernard Antwi Boasiako (Chairman Wontumi).
Both unapologetically defended the decision, arguing it ensures most of the delegates who backed Bawumia in 2023 will still be in place to support him again in 2026.
Wontumi even invoked history, claiming former President John Agyekum Kufuor benefited from a similar arrangement in 1998 after losing the 1996 elections — a claim flatly refuted by party General Secretary Justin Kodua Frimpong. Evidence continues to mount of the establishment backing for Bawumia.
Party stalwarts like former Majority Leader Osei-Kyei-Mensah Bonsu and former MP for Adansi Asokwa, Kobina Tahir Hammond, are firmly in his camp.
In the Eastern Region alone, 15 out of 21 MPs have openly declared for him, with other regions reflecting similar trends.
While other aspirants enjoy some pockets of hierarchical support, none comes close to the coordinated push by party heavyweights to line delegates behind Bawumia.
Unsurprisingly, among the five contenders, the former Vice President has emerged as the clear frontrunner — commanding 47 per cent support compared to Kennedy Agyapong’s 17 per cent in the latest Global Info Analytics poll.
All signs now point to Bawumia as the establishment’s candidate for 2028.
NDC’s quiet race
Mussa Dankwa’s steady stream of polls is injecting renewed urgency into Ghana’s political space, with key actors scrambling not to be outpaced by time.
For now, the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) appears intent on sticking to its electoral timetable.
Still, the “Mussa Dankwa scare” is breathing down the necks of some leading figures flagged in his research as potential presidential hopefuls.
They include NDC Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketiah, former Chief of Staff Julius Debrah and Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu.
Others mentioned are Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson, Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa and Vice President Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang — whose quiet presence has fueled speculation she may not contest the NDC’s presidential primary. None of them has openly declared, but their actions and subtle signals from their camps strongly suggest they are in the reckoning.
Asiedu Nketiah’s recent regional tours have raised eyebrows; Julius Debrah’s highly visible public engagements are fueling suspicions of a bid; and Haruna Iddrisu’s rising popularity, highlighted in Mussa Dankwa’s polls, positions him as a potential front-runner.
Together, these developments are quietly shaping the lineup of likely contenders in the NDC race.
But Mahama decides election 2028
The Mahama factor will be the single most crucial determinant in the 2028 elections.
From an NPP perspective, the earliest realistic path back to power may be after 2028. Anything sooner risks pushing the party out of contention until at least 2032.
With Ghana’s two-term, eight-year cycle now firmly entrenched, an NDC win in 2028 would almost certainly extend its dominance until 2036.
By then, President Mahama would have completed his second and final term, leaving the political field open to both major parties from 2029 onward.
Yet, as aspiring NPP General Secretary Eugene Boakye Antwi candidly admitted in a recent media interview, many within the NPP quietly “wish Mahama would fail.”
The reasoning is straightforward: a failed Mahama presidency could swing 2028 in the NPP’s favour.
Conversely, a successful tenure would almost guarantee an NDC victory — and possibly beyond.
So far, however, Mussa Dankwa’s polls show Mahama enjoying overwhelming recognition and popularity across all 16 regions of Ghana.
Big Push
His support base remains firm, with no visible cracks.
If he sustains economic stability while delivering on his Big Push intercity connectivity infrastructure agenda and the Feed Ghana programme, Mahama will stand as the single strongest pillar of an NDC triumph in 2028.
Already, one of Ghana’s recurring nightmares — erratic power supply — has seen marked improvement under his leadership.
The real test now is whether his administration can translate stable electricity into expanded industrial growth.
If achieved over the next three years, Mahama’s legacy will not only be secured but will also decisively shape the fortunes of whoever succeeds him within the NDC—and this is the nightmare the NPP dreads.
