GHANA’S economic transformation hinges on building a strong logistics infrastructure that will support the country’s transition from commodity exports to value-added production, the 2026 budget analysis by C-NERGY Global Holdings has said.
The firm emphasised that efficient supply chains were essential to enable goods to move faster, cheaper and more effectively across the nation.
“At the heart of Ghana’s long-term economic transformation lies the shift from a primary commodity-dependent model to one anchored in value-added production.”
“A strong logistics infrastructure will be required to facilitate a robust, efficient supply chain,” it said.
The 2025 Budget introduced the Big Push Programme, a flagship initiative fully financed through redirected oil revenues and mineral royalties that were previously channelled into general budget support.
The programme places road and logistics infrastructure at the centre of national development, underscoring the government’s recognition that efficient transport networks are vital to enhancing productivity and driving industrialisation.
Performance
Meanwhile, fiscal performance during the first three quarters of the year had shown marked improvement.
Interest payments declined to 3.1 per cent of GDP, outperforming the budgeted target of 3.8 per cent.
The savings resulted from declining domestic interest rates, reduced Eurobond servicing costs, concessional refinancing and a stronger cedi.
Government also recorded progress in the energy sector, with expenditure under the ‘other expenditure’ category—primarily allocations to clear energy sector arrears—reaching 1.4 per cent of GDP, below the projected 1.8 per cent.
This gain was attributed to early gains in efforts to rationalise energy sector obligations and restore financial discipline.
Finance
Ghana’s public debt has declined significantly to GH₵630.1 billion, representing 45.0 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as of the third quarter of 2025, down from 61.7 per cent in 2024.
External debt totalled GH₵319.28 billion, representing 22.8 per cent of GDP and accounting for 50.7 per cent of the overall debt stock, while domestic debt amounted to GH₵310.9 billion, or 22.3 per cent of GDP, comprising 49.3 per cent of the portfolio.
According to C-NERGY Holdings, the domestic debt profile had seen a modest shift toward longer-term instruments, with the share of short-term securities declining to 36.7 per cent.
It said external disbursements remained subdued at GH₵0.39 billion in the second quarter, resulting in negative net external flows as repayments outpaced inflows.
“Interest rate pressures on Treasury bills eased gradually, with average yields declining to 12.1 per cent year-on-year.”
Interest payments are projected at GH₵57.7 billion (3.6 per cent of GDP), comprising GH₵50.1 billion in domestic interest and GH₵7.6 billion in external obligations,” the report stated.
To strengthen debt sustainability, the government will reactivate the Ghana Sinking Fund and implement measures to reprofile domestic debt, execute targeted bond buybacks and extend maturities to mitigate short-term rollover pressures.
On debt restructuring progress, it said Ghana’s debt restructuring was progressing well, with a Memorandum of Understanding signed in October 2025 and bilateral agreements already concluded with key creditors, while the remaining are expected to finalise theirs by December 2025.
It said the domestic debt market had rebounded strongly, with substantial issuances and timely servicing of all coupons, which had helped restore investor confidence and credibility.
Ghana has also received credit rating upgrades in 2025, indicating renewed international confidence in its fiscal discipline, debt restructuring progress and economic reforms, while lowering financing costs.
Vulnerabilities
Despite the progress, the firm cautioned that underlying vulnerabilities persist, noting that projected debt maturities between 2026 and 2028 were expected to be substantial, posing refinancing and liquidity risks that could strain public finances if not proactively managed.
“Although the decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio signals progress toward fiscal consolidation, sustained fiscal discipline remains imperative,” the firm stated.
C-nergy urged the government to intensify efforts to broaden the domestic revenue base through improved tax compliance, digitalisation and policy efficiency, while enforcing prudent expenditure controls to curb recurrent spending and create fiscal space for priority investments.
The firm also stressed that accelerating structural reforms, particularly in state-owned enterprises and the energy sector, would be essential to address contingent liabilities, reduce quasi-fiscal deficits and enhance the long-term sustainability of public debt.
“A coordinated, forward-looking approach will be key to safeguarding macroeconomic stability and restoring investor confidence,” it said.
Revenue
On revenue, the firm explained that the tax overhaul unveiled in the last budget represented a complex balancing act that traded several politically unpopular revenue streams for structural growth and simplified compliance.
It said while increasing the Growth and Sustainability Levy on mining was direct (immediate revenue booster), its impact was likely to be outweighed in the short term by revenue losses from taxes like the e-levy that have been abolished.
“Critically, to stabilise the immediate revenue picture and cover the shortfalls experienced across the non-oil tax base, the government has heavily relied on non-discretionary levies, such as the high tax components embedded in the price of fuel at the pumps.”
“These fuel levies act as a reliable, almost invisible buffer, ensuring funds flow while more complicated, high-yield reforms, like the legislative efforts to decouple VAT and eliminate various exemptions, are still moving slowly through the implementation pipeline,” it said.
Despite achieving commendable macroeconomic stability, the report said Ghana's government revenue performance consistently fell short of ambitious targets.
It said the significant shortfall across tax streams, particularly the 52.4 per cent deficit in Oil and Gas receipts, confirmed that fiscal discipline was driven more by expenditure management than by strong revenue mobilisation.
It said the gap between optimistic mid-year budget projections and actual performance indicated a persistent failure of past revenue measures to generate expected returns.
“The 2026 plan, which targets an aggressive 16.8 per cent of GDP, features strategically sound measures like AI-driven customs and a push to register eight million new taxpayers,” it said.