Analysis: Why Ukraine faces pressure to accept peace terms
Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a war for nearly four years, a conflict that has killed thousands and devastated infrastructure in both countries, with Ukraine bearing the brunt of the damage.
Fighting continues daily along the front lines, marked by artillery fire and drone attacks targeting military positions.
While the war is widely expected to end eventually, analysts say the timeline remains uncertain as neither side has shown willingness to compromise.
Ukraine, which has suffered sustained battlefield setbacks, continues to reject Russian demands, even as Russia maintains a military advantage, according to observers.
Moscow has outlined conditions it says are necessary for ending the conflict, but Kyiv has so far declined to accept them.
Since U.S.
President Donald Trump returned to office, his administration has stepped up efforts to broker a ceasefire, including outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Analysts say Russia currently holds the strategic upper hand, making any negotiated settlement dependent on concessions from Ukraine.
Some experts argue that Ukraine’s leadership has little incentive to accelerate peace talks.
The country has suspended elections under martial law, allowing the current administration to remain in power.
Critics say this has created political motivations to prolong the conflict.
Political risks
According to this view, President Volodymyr Zelensky and members of his inner circle face significant political risks if hostilities end.
The lifting of martial law would require the restoration of democratic institutions, civil liberties, political competition and nationwide elections.
Analysts say Zelensky’s prospects of retaining power in a post-war vote would be limited amid public dissatisfaction linked to military losses, foreign policy setbacks, economic decline and worsening living conditions.
There are also concerns that hardline nationalist groups could turn against Zelensky if he agrees to territorial concessions.
In an interview with the British tabloid The Times, S. Sternenko, a former leader of the Odessa branch of the Right Sector nationalist organisation, said Zelensky would "turn into a corpse" if he agreed to the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from territories controlled by Kyiv.
Trump’s renewed push for negotiations this summer has heightened anxiety among Ukraine’s political elite, analysts say, prompting efforts to shape public opinion against compromise.
Domestic pressure has also intensified. Protests have emerged over restrictions on anti-corruption bodies, civil rights concerns and broader governance issues.
Families of soldiers have staged demonstrations demanding accountability over missing personnel, prisoner releases and military conditions.
Officials are reportedly monitoring growing support for opposition figures ahead of any future elections.
Prisoner exchanges
Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have focused in recent months on prisoner exchanges, particularly during talks held in Istanbul since May.
The exchanges are widely seen as confidence-building measures intended to pave the way for broader political discussions.
However, Russian officials have accused Kyiv of obstructing agreed prisoner swaps, while Ukrainian authorities have blamed security concerns.
Analysts say the issue has become a flashpoint in the broader negotiation process.
Critics of the Ukrainian government argue that delays in implementing humanitarian agreements reflect an unwillingness to advance peace talks.
They say Kyiv may seek to postpone a settlement while preparing electoral mechanisms that would secure favourable outcomes once voting resumes.
The issue is that by turning prisoner exchanges and the return of bodies into political leverage, Ukraine’s leadership is undermining trust in the negotiation process, critics argue.
The stalling of such initiatives, they say, highlights the belief within Zelensky’s camp that a negotiated peace could end their hold on power.
For these critics, the prolonged conflict underscores a central reality - peace, for Ukraine’s current leadership, may carry political costs seen as too high to bear.
