The Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024) dataset is now publicly available.
This means those interested in further understanding the political landscape as the country headed into Election 2024 can do so.
The public release of the survey findings was too close to the election.
In conformity with its policy, Afrobarometer did not share answers related to the “who would you vote for” question. And that is good practice, especially in a politically polarising environment where such information can be misconstrued as an attempt to influence the outcome of an election.
I believe the signs clearly indicate an impending electoral defeat for the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP), at least judging from the country's mood.
Perhaps, no one anticipated the National Democratic Congress (NDC) margin of victory in both the presidential and parliamentary elections.
Sometimes, though, there was a strong display of positivity by people associated with the Dr Bawumia campaign that I regularly felt they had a fighting chance.
In further analysis of the publicly available data, how the political landscape looked in the lead-up to the 2024 election is quite intriguing. For additional context, please remember that the data was collected between August 5-24, 2024.
Voting intentions
The survey asked, “If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which candidate’s party would you vote for?”. Dissecting the responses in three ways, here is what Ghanaians said.
1. Scenario 1 – NDC (33 per cent); NPP (21 per cent ); Other (three per cent); Would not vote (15 per cent); Refused to answer (19 per cent ); and Don’t know (nine per cent).
2. Scenario 2 - NDC (58 per cent); NPP (36 per cent); Other (six per cent). Analysis excludes those who answered, “would not vote, refused to answer, and don’t know.”
3. Scenario 3 - NDC (50 per cent); NPP (31 per cent); Other (five per cent) and Don’t know (14 per cent).
In all three scenarios, the NDC led the NPP. In Scenario 1, the percentage of “would not vote” was quite high and probably explains the voter turnout in the election. In that scenario, I am also curious which candidate those who “refused to answer” the question intended to vote for.
Scenario 2 clearly showed a one-touch victory for the NDC, as happened in the election.
In Scenario 3, it looks like even if all the “don’t knows” voted for the NPP, they would have still lost the election. Looking at the data collection period, voters appear to have decided by August 2024 to vote the NPP out of office.
Enthusiasm gap
In a three-way race (NDC-NPP-Other Party), among self-described NDC partisans, 98 per cent said they intended to vote for their party, compared to 91 per cent among self-described NPP partisans who intended to vote for their party.
Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, 2024 flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party
In a four-way race (NDC-NPP-Other Party-Undecided), the percentage of self-described NDC partisans dropped to 96 per cent, while that for self-described NPP partisans dropped to 87 per cent.
Among those who answered the voting intention question with “would not vote,” a huge majority (68 per cent ) were self-described NPP partisans compared to only 18 per cent who self-described NDC partisans, with the remaining self-identifying with other political parties.
In a region (Ashanti) considered to be the biggest stronghold of the NPP, as many as 18 per cent in the survey said they “would not vote” compared to only five per cent who said the same in the Volta, which is considered an NDC stronghold.
Of course, not all voters in the Ashanti were going to vote for the NPP, but for this many people to have indicated not voting surely spelled trouble for the party.
And again, as the election outcome showed, the signs from Ashanti were obvious.
In a nutshell, Ghanaians who described themselves as feeling close to the NDC were more enthusiastic about voting than those who described themselves as feeling close to the NPP.
Overall Conclusions s
After the 2024 election, the NPP sought answers to understand the defeat it experienced.
I believe the Prof. Mike Ocquaye report offered some valuable insights into the election loss.
I will, however, add that there is much to be gained from a thorough analysis of the data collected by Afrobarometer, as it provides the clearest signals of how Ghanaians felt as the election approached.
That understanding, in my opinion, can shape the party's messaging as it engages Ghanaians in hopes of earning their forgiveness and an opportunity to correct the wrongs of the past.
For the ruling party (NDC), though, the sentiments expressed by Ghanaians about not just voting intentions but also governance and socio-economic issues should serve as a lesson.
As shown in 2016 and 2024, Ghanaians fully know their most potent accountability tool – voting.
And they have further demonstrated that when dissatisfied, it is a tool they are ready and willing to pull.
The writer is the Project Director, The Democracy Project.
