The Mauritius Election — What Afrobarometer signalled

On November 10, another incumbent fell in Mauritius after a decade in office.

Mauritius has regularly participated in the Afrobarometer since Round 5 (2012). Their most recent participation is this year.

The data was collected in April, seven clear months before the election, and is publicly available.

The following rounds of the survey occurred during the time of the incumbent who lost the election – Round 7 (2017), Round 8 (2019), Round 9 (2022) and Round 10 (2024).

Keep in mind that the Mauritius elections happened about two weeks after the people of Botswana voted out an incumbent. As I wrote in my November 6 op-ed, signals from the Afrobarometer survey pointed to trouble for the incumbent. 

 op-ed first a) compares citizens’ views expressed between Round 7 (2017) and Round 10 (2024); and b) notes some observations between Round 9 (2022) and Round 10 (2024) on some selected indicators.

The comparisons over the two distinct time horizons, as you will soon see, raise some intriguing puzzles about the case of Mauritius and the signals from the Afrobarometer survey.

The Two Different Signals from the Afrobarometer Survey.

The table above compares citizens’ sentiments on key economic and governance indices over the term of the incumbent. From the table, citizens were facing some economic pinch points regarding their personal living conditions and the country’s economic conditions.

Although very few reported experiences with cash income deprivation, the percentage of citizens who expressed optimism about future economic conditions remained very low. 

The evaluation of government performance in addressing the economic pinch points was low.

No more than four out of 10 citizens rated performance well in managing the economy, creating jobs or improving the living standards of the poor. Interestingly, the government’s performance was rated well handling two important social goods – health and education.  

Citizens’ perception of governance and corruption appears to be the real sore spot on corruption, satisfaction with democracy and the fight against corruption. Even though the prime minister had made some gains on the question of trust, it remained very low.

It is easy, based on the picture above, to see why the incumbent lost. We can call this the long-term picture. Having said that, turn your attention to the short-term picture which compares 2022 to 2024.

Comparing Tables 1 and 2, two distinct pictures emerge. Over the long term (2017 to 2024), the sentiments of citizens generally were not positive. Over the short term (2022 to 2024), the sentiments of citizens showed significant improvements.

This raises two puzzles. First, did the incumbent run out of time? Second, on the economic pinch points and governance issues, were the improvements not significant enough? 

Whatever the answers, I repeat my advice – always pay close attention to the signals from the Afrobarometer survey.

The writer is the Project Director, Democracy Project