Sunyani East will be hotly contested
The Sunyani East Constituency, with Sunyani, the Brong Ahafo Regional capital, as its headquarters is going to be one of the hotly contested seats in the Brong Ahafo Region in the November 7, 2016 general election.
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The seat traditionally belongs to the New Patriotic Party (NPP) since apart from 1992, when the party boycotted the parliamentary polls, its candidates have won every Parliamentary election.
In the 1992 election, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate had a field day of a landslide victory as a result of the decision by the NPP to boycott the parliamentary polls.
However, the seat, which formerly included the entire Sunyani West Constituency, was won by veteran politician and former Senior Minister, Mr J.H. Mensah, during the 1996 polls as well as the 2000 and the 2004 elections.
The decision by Mr Mensah not to contest again after occupying the seat for a third consecutive time paved the way for Lawyer Kwasi Ameyaw-Cheremeh to contest on the ticket of the NPP in 2008.
Facts about the constituency
The population of the Sunyani Municipality, which also doubles as the Sunyani East Constituency, according to the 2010 Population and Housing Census (PHC), is 123,224. This figure represents 5.3 of the total population of the Brong Ahafo Region. The male population constitutes 49.9 per cent with 50.1 making up the women.
However, according to the Electoral Commission, the Sunyani East Constituency currently has total provisional registered voters of 101,201.
This is indicative of the fact that the total population of the constituency has grown signficantly since 2010.
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Apart from Sunyani, other major towns that constitute the Sunyani East Constituency are Abesim, Atronie, Antwikrom, Yawhima, Kotokrom, New Dormaa, Liberation Barracks and other small settlements such as Kuffuor Camp among others.
Economy
The economy of the municipality used to be agrarian. However, the upsurge of commercial, industrial and service activities has diversified of the local economy.
Currently, the service sector employs majority (58.3 per cent) of the population in the municipality.
2012 election
Seven candidates contested for the Sunyani East seat during the 2012 general election. They were Mr Philip Awuah, NDC; Kwasi Ameyaw-Cheremeh, NPP; Vivian Tetteh, PPP; Alanyina Sampana Sampson, PNC; Anthony Nana Antwi-Boasiako, NDP and Michael Kwame Mensah Asare, who stood as an independent candidate.
The NPP has its strongholds in Sunyani and Abesim while the NDC holds its own in the rural areas even though the seat is traditionally for NPP.
During the 2012 elections, there were 71,918 valid votes cast while a total of 768 votes were rejected.
The incumbent, Ameyaw-Cheremeh, retained the seat with 42,478 while his closest challenger, NDC’s Philip Awuah, had 25,141 votes.
The other candidates, Vivian Tetteh, PPP, had 3,682; Michael Kwame Mensah Asare, Independent, 291, Alanyina Sampana Sampson, PNC, 228, and Anthony Nana Antwi-Boasiako of NDP, 98 votes.
PPP candidate
For the second time Ms Vivian Tetteh is contesting the seat on the ticket of the PPP in the 2016 elections. She is also the party's National Women's Coordinator. In 2012 she came third with 3,682 votes.
Ms Tetteh is optimistic that she will be able to surprise pundits by winning the seat in the forthcoming polls.
2008 election
In the 2008 general election, the total valid votes were 53,844 with the Mr Ameyaw-Cheremeh obtaining 33,765 votes (62.7 per cent) to win the seat, followed by the then NDC candidate, Justice Samuel Adjei, with 18,830 votes.
The difference between the 2008 valid votes in the constituency and those of 2012 was 18,074.
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While the NPP increased the votes its candidate obtained in 2008 from 33,765 to 42,478 in 2012, a difference of 8,713, the NDC candidate also increased the party’s votes from 18,765 to 25,141, a difference of 6,376.
This means that in 2012 the NPP and NDC garnered a total of 15,089 out of the increase of 18,074 valid votes from the 2008 valid votes of 53,844. Out of the additional figure, the NPP got 2,337 more than NDC.
Who then wins the seat in 2016?
This is a big question that will be difficult to answer this time round even though the seat as I have stated earlier traditionally belongs to the NPP.
What then has changed for observers to be cautious in their prediction about who wins the seat on November 7, 2016 when the question could have been an easy one to answer previously?
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It is obvious from the above analysis that all things being equal, it is only the NPP, and to some extent the NDC, that can win the seat in 2016.
In 2012, the NPP candidate, Ameyaw-Cheremeh, retained the seat with a difference of 17,337 and in normal circumstances, it would be very difficult for his challenger to catch up with him.
The primaries of both parties in the constituency were hotly contested with that of the NPP requiring a verdict from the Sunyani High Court.
Ameyaw-Cheremeh won the primary with only one vote but his challenger, former Ghana High Commissioner to Nigeria and Ambassador to Libya, Ambassador George Kumi, who was not satisfied with the results, took the matter to court.
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After recounting of the ballots following an order by the court, the single vote which was the subject matter of the controversy was added to Mr Ameyaw-Cheremeh’s votes to make the difference of the contest to be two votes.
Ambassador Kumi, who was still not satisfied, has since declared his intention to contest the 2016 polls as an independent candidate with his symbol as a cocoa tree while telling his supporters to vote for the NPP’s presidential candidate, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo Addo.
The NDC primary in the Sunyani East Constituency, which was hotly contested, was won convincingly by the Sunyani Municipal Chief Executive, Mr Kwasi Oppong Ababio, who hails from one of the strongholds of the NPP in the constituency, Abesim.
Possible split in the NPP front?
If the results in the NPP primary and the eventual decision by Ambassador Kumi to go solo is anything to go by, then it will be very difficult to predict that the NPP will retain the seat.
Can the split in the 42,478 votes garnered during the 2012 parliamentary polls by the NPP, coupled with the advantage of the NDC’s candidate hailing from one of the strongholds of NPP, Abesim, be an advantage for Mr Oppong Ababio?
Will the NPP supporters call Ambassador Kumi’s bluff and remain loyal to the incumbent Member of Parliament (MP), Mr Ameyaw-Cheremeh?.
Will NPP supporters at Abesim remain loyal to their party and ignore the fact that one of their own, Mr Oppong Ababio, is the candidate of the NDC?
These are facts that might decide who wins the Sunyani East seat on November 7, 2016.Until then, it will be very difficult for anyone to predict the outcome of the parliamentary polls in the Sunyani East Constituency.