Power audit - Are we out of the woods?
Ghana’s power sector has seen relative stability for the first three months of 2016, but this does not mean the country is out of its energy challenges.
Rightly so because, with production levels hovering around 1,900 Megawatts (MW) and peak demand at 1,700 MW, there is enough power for both domestic consumers and businesses.
The challenge, however, is that with an expected increase in demand in 2016, the absence of a reserve margin implies that in the event of a breakdown of any of the power plants, there will be no cushion for the sector and the energy crises will resurface.
The Energy Commission has estimated that peak demand for power will reach 2,600MW in 2016, up from the 2,100 MW in 2015. This means that with current production around 1,900 and the expected generation in 2016 at 580MW comprising 220 MW KTPP and 360 MW Asogli Phase two, total available generation will be less than the projected peak demand of 2,600MW, and the absence of a reserve margin would complicate issues.
The Executive Director of the Africa Centre for Energy Policy (ACEP), Dr Mohammed Amin Adam, cautioned that although the situation has stabilised, the absence of a reserve margin poses another challenge.
“The situation has improved significantly because we are able to meet peak demand. We should have a reserve margin of about 400 MW which we don’t have, so if there is a problem and it is not fuel related, but a technical damage to any of our plants, it means we will not have immediate reserve margins to fall on to balance the supply, and that can take us back to the period of shortage and load shedding,” he said in an interview on March 17.
FPSO shutdown
The Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel (FPSO), Kwame Nkrumah was shut down from March 20, for a two-week inspection and maintenance.
With a shortfall in gas supply from both the Gas plant at Atuabo and the WAPCo pipeline from Nigeria, power generation is estimated to go down by 250 megawatts (MW) for a period of two weeks, because the AMERI emergency power plant, which generates 250MW and runs solely on gas, will not be operating and this will lead to disruptions in power supply. This is because there will be no reserve margins to balance supply during the shutdown.
Government has, however, made arrangements to procure light crude oil to power some of the thermal plants within the Aboadze power enclave in the Western Region.
Outlook not good
The medium term outlook for the power sector does not look good, especially if planned generation investments are not realised.
According to ACEP, by 2020, power deficit plus reserve margin could reach 1,100MW, and given the history of delays in generation investments in Ghana, including the more recent projects KTPP, TICO 2 Expansion and CENPower, it was important to be cautious about estimates and work harder to realise the promised 5,000 MW generation capacity by end of 2016.
Power generation continues to be a challenge for the country although it has more than enough capacity to meet the growing energy demands, currently estimated at a little over 2,000 Megawatts (MW).
With a total installed capacity of 2,831 MW from hydro, thermal and renewable sources, it is expected that Ghana will have no challenge in producing power for its citizenry, aid businesses to thrive and attract foreign investments into the sector.
The challenge, however, goes beyond installed capacity as some of the power plants are operating below capacity while some are idle. For the power planer fuel or gas to operate, the inability of the country to secure fuel to power them results in them producing at a limited capacity.
The Akosombo Dam, the biggest hydro source of power with an installed capacity of 1,020 MW is currently generating around 674 MW at peak times, and normally between 30 to 35 per cent of its installed capacity. This is largely due to uncertainty in rainfall and water inflows into the hydroelectric power facility.
The inability of the country’s power generation mix to meet demand over the years, has resulted in a deficit and subsequently the load shedding exercise popularly known in the local parlance as “dumsor”.
Power generation
The main source of hydro power generation is the Akosombo Dam with an installed capacity of 1,020 MW, Kpong with 160MW and BUI with 400 MW.
The thermal sources, which run on either Light Crude Oil or gas, include TAPCO (TI) with a general capacity of 330 MW, TICO (T2) with 220 MW, T3 (132 MW), TT1PP (110 MW), TT2PP (50MW), MRP (80 MW), Sunon Asogli (200 MW) and CENIT with 126 MW. Renewable sources consisting primarily of solar has an installed capacity of 2.5 MW. All these power plants when operating at full capacity is expected to produce 2,831 MW.
In the face of the growing challenges in 2015, some short term and emergency power solutions were lined up to help in power generation, comprising the 220MW Kpone
Thermal Power Project (KTPP), 110MW TICO Expansion Project, 180MW first half of Asogli 360MW Phase 2 Project, VRA TT2PP (38 MW) expansion project, and the 225MW Karpower ship and 250MW Ameri Project in Takoradi.
Additions to the grid out of these projects, however, was 585 MW which covers the 225MW Karpower ship, 250MW Ameri plant and 110MW TICO Expansion. The 220MW
KTPP and Asogli phase two have been completed but are yet to deliver power to the grid.
Emergency power to the rescue?
In 2015, two emergency power plants were deployed to help reduce the power deficit and subsequently stabilise power supply. The 225MW Karpower ship and 250MW Ameri Project in Takoradi were added to the generation grid.
The second Karpower ship which is expected to add about 215 MW is said to be 70 per cent complete and will be in the country in the second half of the year.
These emergency power plants, however, are very expensive and subsequently comes at a cost to consumers. Electricity tariffs have gone up by over 60 per cent, and for consumers who cannot afford, they have gone off the grid, while some businesses have also collapsed. Indeed the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission (PURC) confirmed this as it is said to have saved about 300MW of power after the increase in tariffs.
The question, however, is do we really need the power barges if we have the installed capacity to produce what is needed to meet demand locally.
Future is LNG
Indigenous gas production is currently from the Ghana Gas processing facility at Atuabo and Nigeria Gas (N-Gas) through the West Africa Gas Pipeline. The Atuabo gas processing plant has the capacity to produce 120 million standard cubic feet of gas (scf) per day, but is currently doing 100 million scf. N-Gas, which is supposed to give about 120 million scf is delivering only 30 million scf.
Outlined gas projects include 80 million scf of gas from the Tweneboa- Enyera- Ntomme (TEN) field and 200 million scf while the Sankofa project will add 200 million scf of gas in 2017. These new projects are expected to push the country closer to meeting its gas demand of 400 million scf up until 2022.
“When we have limited indigenous gas potential and your exploration activity is low such that the potential for getting more gas is limited then you have to look elsewhere, Thinking into the future, LNG becomes a cheaper option relative to light crude oil,” he said.
Government has entered into an agreement for the establishment of a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility at Tema. The Volta River Authority (VRA) is also negotiating some LNG contracts to supplement gas supply and according to him, when these projects are completed, that will be the future.
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