What are the polls saying?

Have you taken note that the gap between John Mahama and Dr Bawumia has been narrowing since the beginning of this year? From 57 per cent to 43 per cent in favour of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) flag bearer at the beginning of the year, the polls now give JDM only a 51.9 per cent lead. 

I will hazard an interpretation but before then, permit me to deal with indecorous remarks made by two politicians this week. One, by NDC communicator, Dela Edem, insensitively gloating over the physical disability of wheelchair-bound ex-President Kufuor, is callous.

Edem’s sin smells to the skies. It shows what unacceptably low levels of humanity politics have reduced this nation to. In our indecent haste to be rich through politics, Ghanaians – all Ghanaians – have thrown caution to the pigs.

The NDC, however, has won my respect. In what looks like the first such internal reprimand by a political party since the birth of the Fourth Republic, it has officially condemned its communicator and apologised to the former President.

Please, let it not be said about this generation that we embarked on the Fourth Republic without a moral compass.  

The second this week is a gaffe, an act of indiscretion by Afafranto flag bearer, Alan Kyerematen. A flag bearer who has an eye for Ashanti votes does not go about even daring to be seen disputing JAK, a man in the hearts of the Ashanti nation.

Indeed, Kufuor’s stature is beyond tribe; he is the most respected Ghanaian politician alive. In my estimation, only Kwame Nkrumah and General (later Mr) Ignatius Kutu Acheampong can hold a candle to this gentle giant, the Father of the Nation.

Tale

And now to my major point for this week: what is the tale of the 2024 polls?

Sometime in July this year, I prophesied to John Mahama that he had entered the toughest, most gruelling election battle of his political life from which he might emerge terribly bruised.

At the time of my warning, he was 57 per cent ahead in the polls.

This lead dropped to 53.2 per cent in July. Now, in November, the latest Global Info Analytics poll gives Mahama a thin 51.9 per cent. In my opinion, this lead is too tenuous given the no-holds-barred campaign of his NPP rival.

The Bawumia campaign has proved innovative. Its “human billboards” at street intersections is creative.

Also, unless the crowds being pulled by Dr Mahamudu Bawumia are a deception, I find it difficult to believe that the poll result showing Bawumia trailing with 40.5 per cent is reflective of the Ghanaian mood.

Did Global Info Analytics poll Ashanti voters? I ask because ultimately what Ashanti says is what determines the outcome of December 7.  In 2020, the arrival of Ashanti votes wiped out the combined votes of Volta and the three Northern regions, and left Akufo-Addo with 500,000 which unassailably sealed his victory.

Bawumia and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) have something more to hang their hopes on. It is what has been termed “trend-based analysis”. This analysis states categorically that “NDC is unlikely to win the 2024 election”. It uses trends to forecast that “in both Greater Accra and Central regions, critical swing areas, historical trends favour NPP over NDC.”

It goes on: “With Bawumia as NPP presidential candidate, the party has a real chance of making gains in the Northern Region”.

The trend is that NDC’s support in the region has declined by over eight per cent, while the NPP has seen an increase of more than 10 per cent. Additionally, it says Bawumia could make notable inroads in the Upper East (UE), Upper West (UW) and Savannah regions.

What about Volta? The trend analysts conclude that the Volta Region “is likely to disappoint NDC”. It cites “the Keta sentiment”, as expressed by its chiefs, and the “Amewu factor”.

This NPP MP is credited with “unprecedented transformation” of Hohoe. 

Elsewhere, it suggests that “Bawumia is also likely to gain significant support from the Zongo and Muslim communities”. We live to see.

Vote buying

My third and final observation this week is based on reports of “Vote Buying in 3 Regions” produced by the Coalition of Domestic Election Observers (CODEO).

Something troubles me. Did CODEO actually see “political figures distributing money”, as stated in its report? In that case, its observers should have run to the police.  

The problem with enforcing the law is that vote buying, though a crime, is like the law against LGBTQI – you have to catch the offender in the very act.

Also, it bears asking, was the vote-buying law not in force when politicians of both parties, in previous years, displayed TV sets, deep freezers among others, live, at their congresses, conferences and primaries? Even when money changed hands, we were told that “they are T&T”.

And so, the bribing goes on, and the law is lame.

My opinion: this law does not deserve to remain on the statute books: it is more honoured in the breach ‒ with clever language, political muscle and a lack of desire to prosecute ‒ than in observance.

The writer is Executive Director,
Centre for Communication and Culture.
E-mail: ashonenimil@gmail.com